VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY- 20th August, 2012

EUR/USD

EUR/USD:  

We had asked all of our traders to carry forward till Monday (today) on their Short EUR/USD from 1.2375

and Target hit at 1.2290; however which has once again bounced on the upside. However we are still playing on the range and therefore would look at the same levels of resistance in order to go for short levels…however we would be looking for 1.2410/1.2415 for a breach to affirm an upside in the same. Nevertheless we would be initiating short positions at levels around 1.2380 till 1.2390 levels for its downside of 1.2330/1.2335. Only a breach below of 1.2320 would then push it lower to 1.2290 and then towards 1.2255 levels. Considering this is a Holiday with minimal data no major movement could be expected in European Session until the US session opens up, with S&P 500 still holding its resistance on the topside.

However if selling appears to be solid a break of 1.2260/1.2255 would indefinitely push it to 1.2215/1.2202 levels for

today. Nevertheless if sideways movements continue then we would be sticking on the levels instated.

Mode: SIDEWAYS Supports:: 1.2325, 1.225   5 Resistance: 1.2405, 1.2480.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD too seems to be playing range bound, however at one stage seemed quite weak after is loss  1.5685/80 levels on Friday and hence we are looking that its trends on the upside be capped till 1.5745 levels. We would be therefore looking for opportunities to go short at levels around 1.5730/1.5745 levels and would negate our downside only if the levels of 1.5752/1.5460 are breached strongly to test its next resistance at 1.5775/1.5780 levels. Therefore any upside should be seen to test 1.5730 levels to go short but should hold it strongly to test 1.5690 followed by 1.5665/60 levels.

Mode: Bearish Supports::      1.5680, 1.5655, 1.5625 Resistance: 1.5750, 1.5782

AUD/USD

AUD/USD: 

On Friday we had asked all our Traders To enter-into Long in AUD/USD at 1.0410/1.0412 levels despite our Positional Call given since August 14th at 1.0560/1.0540 levels and hence achieving our 1st objective around 1.0450/1.0440 levels. We would be covering our long Calls given on Friday over here as the Hourly Charts are well overbought but would be re-instating longs again at 1.0420/1.0408 levels. The levels of around 1.0380 is quite crucial in order to negate the bounce in AUD/USD as the break below would emancipate huge selling in the market for levels to tests 1.0330/1.0315 levels. However considering this would be a sideways day we would be exiting our long calls at 1.0450 levels and hence re-instating longs only if 1.0408 levels are held strongly.

Mode: SIDEWAYS/BEARISH    Supports:: 1.0405, 1.0378, 1.0330 Resistance: 1.0450, 1.0500, 1.0520

Report By

xDirect India

www.xdirect.in

Nifty & USD/INR Report 1st August, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_01.08.2102_xDirect India

Indian equities ended the volatile session higher with some buying seen in index heavy weights. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has come out with its first quarter Monetary Policy review, albeit policy stance for this meet is in line with general consensus. Again, RBI has maintained its status quo stance and kept the rates unchanged and cut SLR by 1%. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex gained 92.50 points or 0.54% at 17,236.18 with 17 components registering rise. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 29.20 points or 0.56% at 5,229.00 with 30 components posting rise.

There is an Immediate Resistance at 5,24040-5,260 levels on the upside, expect selling pressure to continue at higher levels unless index manages to sustain and close above it. The breaks of crucial support of 5,210-5,190 levels expect declines to 5,140 & 5,120 levels in the near term.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_01.08.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee extended losses on Monday falling to its lowest levels in almost a week led by weak cues across the Asian and European stocks markets and post the acute drop in the Euro on Friday which slipped to its two year lows below the 1.2300 level. Broad weakness in the domestic stock markets also put pressure on the local currency which finished with a loss of a percentage yesterday. It seems even though a slight positive reaction in the European currencies did not aid any boost to risk appetite neither towards appreciation to INR value. We therefore require a more of a fundamental trigger that would enable an upside in the same.

The USDINR pair seems to hold its daily Fibonacci support at 55.74 and if it continues to do so then we are looking at 55.92, 56.08 and then 56.14.

However a break of intraday low which is also the support (Fibonacci) then 55.65 followed by 55.50 would be tested. We keep our bias on the upside.

Report By
xDirect India
www.xdirect.in