Thursday 22 December 2011

View on Major Currencies & Commodities 22nd Dec 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCIES
EUR/USD:
EURO yesterday after the opening at 1.3080 tested the higher level of 1.3197 but selling pressure was seen at higher level around 1.3200 and in the later part of US session correction was seen and on lower side it tested the level of 1.3043 where closing was seen around 1.3043 near days low. Today’s opening was seen flat around 1.3044 level and taking the lower support of 1.3030 is trading at 1.3065 and expect to take resistance of 1.3100 and if the resistance is holding and trading below 1.3030 will bring to lower support of 1.3000 and further trading below 1.3000 ill indicates lower target will open for 1.2960 – 1.2910 level soon. Only crossover above 1.3200 will bring to 1.3300 – 1.3400 levels. Stochastic which has given a down side intersection in the mid zone and if the support is broken will bring back to over sold zone where selling in price may be expected with expected lower target.

GBP/USD: British Pound yesterday after the opening at 1.5660 tested the higher level of 1.5771 but failed to hold the ground above 1.5750 and in the later part of the US session selling pressure was seen in market where it traded below 1.5700 and tested the lower level of 1.5645 and closing was seen at 1.5670 level just above the opening level. Today the opening was seen flat around the level of 1.5670 and taking support of 1.5640 is trading at 1.5690 level and expected trading range will be 1.5750 – 1.5650. Further trading below 1.5650 will continue the down trend where 1.5550 to 1.5450 will be immediate target. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1.5750 and crossover above the same will move to test 1.5850 to 1.5950 again. Till the time 1.5750 is holding on closing basis short correction can be expected. Stochastic has just near to the overbought zone where if the resistance is crossed will enter the higher zone and some upside momentum in price can be seen or if support is broken will bring short covering in market.


AUD/USD: Australian Dollar yesterday after the opening was seen at 1.0077 failed to trade below 1.0040 and after crossing the higher resistance of 1.1000 it tested the higher level of 1.0218 where resistance was seen at 1.0200 level and in the later part of the US session selling pressure was seen and closing was seen at 1.0100 just above the opening level. Today after flat opening around 1.0100 it fails to cross higher resistance of 1.0150 and is trading at 1.0100 where immediate resistance is seen at 1.0150 and if trading is seen below 1.0050 will move to test 1.0000 and 0.9940 immediately. On higher side sustain trading above immediate resistance level of 1.0150 will bring to 1.0250 to 1.0400 level. Stochastic which are trading in the mid zone is trading flat and showing sign of giving negative intersection where if price trade below the support level will bring back to over sold zone where further selling may be expected.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar yesterday after the flat opening at 0.7676 traded positive and tested the higher level of 0.7773 and closing was also seen positive at 0.7702 levels. Today the opening was seen sideway at 0.7703 taking resistance of 0.7720 it is trading at 0.7695 levels where on higher side if the resistance is holding and sustain trading below 0.7650 will indicate short term top is placed and will move to test the level of 0.7600 – 0.7550 in near term. We expected some range bound to down side move in market where 0.7750 is resistance and support is seen at 0.7650 and selling at rise is advice in near term. Stochastic has reverted from the over sold zone and is trading around 30% zone where is flat where some range bounce move is expected.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen in the past few trading session is the range in the range where 78.2 is the resistance and support is seen at 77.6 level, yesterday after opening at 77.88 buying was seen in market where on lower side it tested 77.64 and closing was seen at 78.05 level. Today opening was seen at 78.05 and is trading just above 78 near 78.5 levels where resistance is seen at 78.2 on higher side. Trading range can be seen for the day where 78.2 will be higher side resistance and support is seen at 77.7 on lower side. Stochastic has given negative intersection where side way move in price can be expected.

VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES

Gold:
Gold yesterday after side way opening 1615$ tested the higher level of 1641$ in the early US market opening but reversal in price was seen shapely where on lower die it tested the lower support of 1605$ and closing was flat around 1615$ where the formation of the candle is spinning top. Today opening was seen flat around 1615$ and is trading at 1608$ where it’s trading near the support level of 1605$ and 1600$ and till the time higher resistance of 1615$ is holding we expect it to test 1595$ and 1585$ to be tested immediately. In short term time frame some range bound move is expected where 1630$ is resistance and 1570 will be the support level. On higher side at 1635$ is crossed will bring to 1640$, where as if its holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1540$ on lower side and further trading below 1540$ will continue the down trend on market where 1440$ will be tested. Stochastic has just popped out above the overbought zone where short room is getting generating before the next dow n side move which is expected if sustain trading below 1580 on closing basis.

Silver: Silver yesterday after flat opening at 29.53 tested the higher level of 30.18 but fails to sustain above 30$ and reversal in price was seen and after testing the lower level of 29.11 closing was seen at 29.35 near days low. Today after the opening at 29.25 it has taken the resistance of 29.35 and is trading at 29.11 $ where immediate resistance is seen at 30$ and if fails to cross the higher resistance and sustain trading below 29 $ will bring to 28.6 to 28 $ in near term, where as further trading below 28 will bring to 26 – 24 in near to medium term. On higher side only on closing basis above 30 - 31$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. Stochastic has just neared the oversold zone around 20% and is trading flat indicating if the resistance is holding and if the price trade below 28$ will bring to next support of 24$ in near term.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude yesterday after the positive opening at 107.12 has taken support @ 106 and reversal was seen in the price where on higher side it tested the level of 108.12 level and closing was seen at 107.74 level. Today after the opening was seen flat around the level of 107.7 tested the level of 107.8 failing to cross the resistance of 108 and is trading around the level of 107.5 days low where its expected to trade below 107 and test 106 and 105 immediately, further trading below 105 will being to 103.5 and 101 in near term. Crossover above 108$ is must for further uptrend to continue where we wait for closing basis breakout for higher level of 111$. If sustain trading below 106.5$ will open the door for 104 to 101$ on lower side till the time 108$ is holding for the day. Stochastic has reverted form the lower zone and is trading upside where is trading in the mid zone where if the resistance is holding will trade side way were further trading above 108 will bring to overbought zone and only trading below 106.8 will give indication of some profit booking in market.

Copper: Copper after the positive opening at 7430 was trading in the range where on higher side was not above to cross the level of 733 and on lower side support was taken at 7335 level where 200 points was the range, and closing was seen at 7421 level just near the opening level. Today we look side way trend to continue where on higher side resistance is seen at 7550 and support is seen at 7300 and either side move will further confirm the trend in market, where its expected to trade negative if sustain trading is seen below 7300 with target of 7100 and 6800 in near term. Sustain trading above 7550 will indicates uptrend is still to continue where 7800 can be the higher side target. Stochastic has reverted from the oversold zone just popping above 20% indicating if price inches up above the resistance level then will try to move towards overbought zone in near term.

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xDirect India

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