Wednesday 30 November 2011

View on Major Currencies & Commodities 30th Nov, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY

EUR/USD: EURO yesterday was quite volatile where during US market opening it moved from 1.3280 and tested 1.3440 and again 1.3330 level and closing was seen at 1.3315. Today’s opening was seen at 1.3330 level and taking the higher resistance of 1.3360 is trading below 1.3300 and expect to trade negative in the range of 1.3340 and 1.3220 for the day. We are looking at some selling pressure in Euro from higher level where it’s not expected to trade above to cross 1.3350 and is expected to test 1.3260 – 1.3200 in medium terms. Stochastic which has given a down trend is nearing the lower zone below 30% moving to enter oversold zone indicating further selling to continue in near term.

 GBP/USD: British Pound yesterday after opening was seen at 1.5000 failed to trade below 1.5480 and traded to test the higher level of 1.5560 and closing was just seen at 1.5610 levels. Today the opening was seen flat around the level of 1.5610 and taking resistance of 1.5650 is trading at 1.5550 level and expected trading range will be 1.5580 – 1.5460. Further trading below 1.5460 will continue the down trend where 1.5440 to 1.5420 will be immediate target. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1.5600 and crossover above the same will move to test 1.56500 to 1.5700 again. Till the time 1.5650 is holding on closing basis short correction can be expected. Stochastic which were trading in oversold zone has turned negative and is trading below 20% zone where some fall in price may be expected soon

AUS/USD: Australian Dollar yesterday which opened at 0.9002 levels tested the lower level support at 0.9960 and closing was seen at 0.9998 after testing the higher resistance at 1.0080 levels. Today after flat opening around 0.9999 it fails to cross the higher resistance of 1.0100 and is trading at 0.9950 where immediate support is seen at 0.9920 and if trading is seen below 0.9920 will move to test 0.9840 and 0.9650 immediately. On higher side sustain trading above immediate resistance level of 1.0100 will bring to 1.0300 level. Stochastic has given negative intersection just in the mid zone where down side move can be expected.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar yesterday which opens near the lower level of 0.7550 tested the support level of 0.7500 and closing was seen at 0.7610 levels just near the resistance level. Today the opening was seen flat at 0.7610 and is trading negative at 0.7585 level and trading in the range for the day where on higher side it’s not crossing 0.7650 and on lower side support is seen at days low of 0.7550 level, further trading below 0.7550 will open the door for 0.7460 to 0.7410 level in near term. We expected some range bound to down side move in market where 0.7550 is resistance and support is seen at 0.7350 and selling at rise is advice in near term. Stochastic has reentered in oversold zone and is just hovering below 20% area where negative intersection will bring further selling.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen yesterday closing was seen at 78.28 after testing lower level of 77.50 where it’s trading positive and in range bound move where 78.5 can be retested. Today opening was seen at 77.9 and is trading just above 77.65 near 77.95 levels where support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Trading range can be seen for the day where 78.3 will be higher side resistance and support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Stochastic has given positive intersection where side way move in price can be expected.


Currency pair Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 Trend Index
EUR/USD 1.3335 1.3260 1.3285 1.3310 1.3360 1.3385 1.3415 Down
GBP/USD 1.5610 1.5540 1.5565 1.5585 1.5625 1.5650 1.5670 Down
AUD/USD 1.0044 0.9912 0.9955 1.0011 1.0090 1.0133 1.0180 Down
NZD/USD 0.7640 0.7555 0.7575 0.7610 0.7675 0.7700 0.7740 Down
USD/JPY 77.96 77.58 77.73 77.82 78.06 78.21 78.30 Sideway


VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES

Gold: Gold yesterday’s opening was seen flat around 1711$ failed to trade above 1720$ and after testing the resistance level moved down and tested the days low of 1704$ where support was seen at 1700$, closing was seen near the level of 1715$. Today opening was seen positive around 1715$ and is trading at 1722$ where the resistance is seen at 1725$ and if it’s holding the resistance of 1725$ trading below 1720$ will bring to 1710 – 1700$ on lower side. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1725$ where if it holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1665 and 1660$ on lower side and further trading below 1660 will confirm the down trend on market. On lower side it is expected to move further down if support of 1690 is broken and will test the lower support of 1640 to 1600$ support level in medium term. Stochastic has entered in oversold zone where further price movement will confirm the trend where sustain below 20% zone will bring to 10% where lower target can be tested.

Silver:  Silver yesterday after opening was seen at 32$ fails to trade above 32.2$ and tested the lower level of 31.4$ just near the 31$ support. Today after the flat opening at 31.92 $ it is trading at 31.8$ where on lower side support is taken at 31.5$ and next support is coming at 31$.  If sustain trading is seen below 31.5$ will test the lower level of 31$ to 30.5$ immediately, where as only crossover above 32$ will bring to 33$ next resistance level. On higher side only on closing basis above 35$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. On lower side immediate support is seen at 31$ where sustain trading below the same will bring to 30 to 28$ in near to medium term. Stochastic has just neared to the lower level below 30% nearing oversold zone where if price drift below 30$ will bring to lower level where further selling in price may be seen.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude yesterday after the gap down opening at 108.5$ fails to trade below 108 and tested the higher level of 111$ and closing was also seen at days high. Today after side way opening near 110.8 failed to cross 111 and is trading at 110.5$ where some more upside is expected and may test 112$ immediately. Crossover above 112$ is must for further uptrend to continue where we wait for closing basis breakout for higher level of 115$. If sustain trading below 110$ will open the door for 108.5 to 106$ on lower side till the time 112$ is holding for the day. Stochastic is trading in the mid zone is trading flat and is expected to move towards the lower zone below 10% where some more selling can be seen in the price in coming days.

Copper: Copper yesterday after flat opening at 7416 tested the lower support of 7350 and closing was also seen near 7445 level. If sustain trading is seen below 7350 will open the door for 7100 and 7000 level soon. Today we look side way to negative trend to continue where will test 7300 level soon and only if the resistance of 7500 break will continue the uptrend where it will test 7700 – 7750 level immediately. Today expected to give opening near to 7400 and expected trading range will be 7300 to 7100 where selling is advise on every rise till the time resistance is holding at 7600. Stochastic are trading near the oversold zone where some down side move can be expected in near term.


Commodity Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 Trend Index
Gold 1713 1679 1696 1705 1722 1730 1747 Down
Silver 31.84 30.40 31.13 31.5 32.22 32.55 33.26 Down
Crude 110.5 108.3 109.4 110.03 111.15 111.60 112.70 Down
Copper 7420 7145 7283 7360 7505 7560 7697 Down


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1 comment:

  1. Bond yields rise, rupee strengthens a day after monetary policy .capitalstars

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