VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY- 20th August, 2012

EUR/USD

EUR/USD:  

We had asked all of our traders to carry forward till Monday (today) on their Short EUR/USD from 1.2375

and Target hit at 1.2290; however which has once again bounced on the upside. However we are still playing on the range and therefore would look at the same levels of resistance in order to go for short levels…however we would be looking for 1.2410/1.2415 for a breach to affirm an upside in the same. Nevertheless we would be initiating short positions at levels around 1.2380 till 1.2390 levels for its downside of 1.2330/1.2335. Only a breach below of 1.2320 would then push it lower to 1.2290 and then towards 1.2255 levels. Considering this is a Holiday with minimal data no major movement could be expected in European Session until the US session opens up, with S&P 500 still holding its resistance on the topside.

However if selling appears to be solid a break of 1.2260/1.2255 would indefinitely push it to 1.2215/1.2202 levels for

today. Nevertheless if sideways movements continue then we would be sticking on the levels instated.

Mode: SIDEWAYS Supports:: 1.2325, 1.225   5 Resistance: 1.2405, 1.2480.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD too seems to be playing range bound, however at one stage seemed quite weak after is loss  1.5685/80 levels on Friday and hence we are looking that its trends on the upside be capped till 1.5745 levels. We would be therefore looking for opportunities to go short at levels around 1.5730/1.5745 levels and would negate our downside only if the levels of 1.5752/1.5460 are breached strongly to test its next resistance at 1.5775/1.5780 levels. Therefore any upside should be seen to test 1.5730 levels to go short but should hold it strongly to test 1.5690 followed by 1.5665/60 levels.

Mode: Bearish Supports::      1.5680, 1.5655, 1.5625 Resistance: 1.5750, 1.5782

AUD/USD

AUD/USD: 

On Friday we had asked all our Traders To enter-into Long in AUD/USD at 1.0410/1.0412 levels despite our Positional Call given since August 14th at 1.0560/1.0540 levels and hence achieving our 1st objective around 1.0450/1.0440 levels. We would be covering our long Calls given on Friday over here as the Hourly Charts are well overbought but would be re-instating longs again at 1.0420/1.0408 levels. The levels of around 1.0380 is quite crucial in order to negate the bounce in AUD/USD as the break below would emancipate huge selling in the market for levels to tests 1.0330/1.0315 levels. However considering this would be a sideways day we would be exiting our long calls at 1.0450 levels and hence re-instating longs only if 1.0408 levels are held strongly.

Mode: SIDEWAYS/BEARISH    Supports:: 1.0405, 1.0378, 1.0330 Resistance: 1.0450, 1.0500, 1.0520

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VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY – 6th July, 2012

View On Major Currencies:

View On EUR/USD_xDirect India_06.07.2012

EUR/USD: The US Dollar Index rose for a second consecutive session Thursday, though this climb is still lacking for conviction (traders would use the word ‘momentum’). Taking a look at the fundamental backdrop, general risk trends tell the story. While the S&P 500 slid over the same session – boosting the greenback’s safe haven appeal – the slip follows a string of consecutive advances and did little to pull us back from a two-month high. That said, the market’s ability to hold out hope for another round of supernatural support financial support is quickly drying up. With the ECB passing up the opportunity to fortify the questionable programs trumpeted at the EU Summit, the reality of extremely low rates of return and growing threat of volatility has grown significantly brighter. Perhaps most worrisome of all for risk trends, policy authorities may be signaling their limits with a collective trend away from outright stimulus and toned-down scope of those programs actually pursued.
Mode: Bearish Supports: 1.2350, 1.2287   Resistance: 1.2433, 1.2480, 1.2525

GBP/USD: The Bank of England’s June policy decision – at which they barely avoided an increase to QE – set the stage for this week’s meeting. As expected, the group decided to increase their gilts purchases by 50 billion sterling to bring the program up to 375 billion. Yet, this is neither significantly detrimental nor encouraging to the pound. The stimulus effort by the BoE is still relatively small (compared to the Fed and ECB) and it would ultimately do little to prevent the spread of the EU crisis across the English Channel. We saw cable fell more on the ECB than BoE.
 Mode: Bearish Supports: 1.5484, 1.5450 And 1.5409 Resistance: 1.5550 and 1.5596

USD/JPY: Retail forex speculators remain extremely net-long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Japanese Yen, underlining the strength of the broader USDJPY downtrend. We would normally take a contrarian bias to retail trading crowds, and that would imply the USDJPY stands to fall further. Yet it is difficult to reconcile a US Dollar-bearish bias in light of significant developments in other USD pairs—particularly as we believe the EURUSD stands to decline further.
Since last week total long interest has fallen 13 percent while shorts are 7 percent higher. When crowds are net-long yet are no longer buying, our SSI data warns of a potential shift in trend or sideways consolidation. Our USDJPY bias is subsequently neutral in light of sentiment shifts.
Mode: Bullish Supports: 79.70, 79.55 and 78.90 Resistance: 80.20, 80.55 and 80.85



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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 26th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

xDirect India's Nifty Analysis_26.06.2012

Benchmark indices ended weak erasing early gains, as investors were not impressed by the RBI’s measures to stem the rupee’s fall and the government did not announce any reforms as pledged last week. RBI enhanced the FII limit in G-Secs to $20 billion from $15 billion. It also allowed Indian companies in infrastructure to borrow through the ECB route up to $10 bn. The low amount of liquidity would obviously take away volatility and volumes which eventually turned out to be a negative session for the Nifty. Even the global markets were quite sticky with risk aversion combined with overselling kept the price movements range bound with the US Dollar just bouncing on every dips.

With the sudden drop in the market being witnessed yesterday, the government has announced today that it would take necessary steps to stem the Rupee depreciation; nevertheless these comments came in futile as global uncertainty has indeed gripped on the bull traders to resume on their trading with INR still hovering at its all-time low levels. For today we have a light on the counter from Euro Zone and UK, but US Consumer Confidence being the most important. However the Indian markets would trade sideways with supports coming in at interim levels of 5095 levels (Rising trend line). Followed by 5050 (50% retracement) and then 5023 (Falling trend line). Resistance is seen towards 5140, 5178 levels; however considering bearish trend has been commenced we believe Nifty has little chance of building momentum over 5180 levels for the week.

View on Indian Rupee

xDirect India's USD/INR Analysis_26.06.2012

The Indian Rupee gained sharply in yesterday’s trade bolstered by the expectations of big-bang policy measures from the Government of India and the RBI. The Rupee opened sharply higher and continued rising to make a high near the 56.3750 level. Though it weakened from day’s high and ended at 57.01 to the US Dollar after the measures  introduced by the RBI disappointed markets.

The main step announced was to increase in the cap on foreign investment in Indian government debt  to  $20  billion  from  $15  billion.  The government also reduced the minimum period investors need to hold some bonds to three years from five years, making them more attractive to foreign funds.

The Indian Rupee is expected to trade in a tight spot where in, where on the upside the resistance is seen towards 57.42 (Fibonacci extension) followed by 57.65 levels. Supports come in at 56.40 (yesterday session low). There might be some sort of positives seen in the market considering the constant selling but we believe the bear trend would resume considering the ill-liquid FOMC state,, followed by the multiple downgrades. For today however we would want the US Consumer Confidence to give some amount of boost as yesterday’s housing sales marked good numbers, its best in 3 years.

For today the market is expected to be range bound however, where European session may mark some amount of swings in the global market which may give certain movement in the currency pair.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 21st June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_21.06.2012_xDirect India

The choppy but somewhat positive movements in yesterday’s global market have indeed given Indian equity markets the required boost. Nevertheless the swings on both ends were provided by the fundamental trigger given by Bank of England that apparently chose to boost the stimulus regime in the economy which indeed is required for to boost the banking sector in the region. However the bets on QE kept on rising till the end of Indian markets that managed to close in the positive. The positive terrain was led by the sectors in Metals, Capital Goods, healthcare and Automotives.

Today however as the QE bets faded some amount of pressure could be eased for the markets to look forward to the negative side of the global economic scenario. Where as they have factored on the QE it is now to look forward to the fundamental triggers from the Euro Zone end, while today market has opened slightly on the flat note further swings would be provided by the reaction in the European markets.

The immediate support on Nifty comes in at 5080 levels (50% retracement) and only a breach of this would threaten in another bout of selling in the counter, where the support levels would be followed in by 5043 (falling trend line). Resistance comes in at 5140 levels and if the levels close in anywhere around or over it then we would change our bias to positive on the same, where the price action played in within the confines of this levels then it would be range -bound play.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_21.06.2012_xDirect Ind

The Indian Rupee closed in the negative as despite the Indian equities managing to close in the positive did not provide the necessary boost to Indian Rupee that closed lower against the US Dollar.
Amongst other major news in the domestic markets, rating agency Fitch revised the outlook of a no. of major Indian banks including SBI, PNB, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, IDBI Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, EXIM Bank of India among others.

In the global space, the major US Federal Reserve meeting ended yesterday wherein the Central bank kept its interest rates on hold and extend its so called Bond buying program named Operation Twist towards the end of this year. The Fed said it will prolong the program and expects to sell $267 Billion of shorter-term securities and buying the same amount of longer- term debt in a bid to cut borrowing costs and spur thee economy. Both the moves were widely anticipated by thee markets and couldn’t spur any kind of positivism.

Today technically the Spot USD/INR is at a standpoint of either breaking the resistance of 56.42 therefore marking a new highh towards 57.00 levels, or holding those levels that would be only be possible for a string of positive data’s to tests its intraday low of 56.10 and even though this level would be considered for initiating a buy we would recommend to ponder on the European & US equity markets that would break the levels of 56.10 to test lower levels of 55.80 to 55.70.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 19th June. 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_19.06.2012_xDirect India

The ongoing worries of Spain that pushed its yield rates to over 7.25% yesterday is overshadowing the Greek elections that came out to attempt a positive vibe in the global market. However, it was soon faded as borrowings become more expensive in the Euro Zone debt ridden nations. The one domestic fundamental that could have provided the much needed support would have been the RBI monetary policy decision; nevertheless all its rates (including CRR) were kept unchanged as RBI still thinks that inflation would be the more sought out problem rather than growth for the economy. European markets too ended mixed as worries about Spain and Italy dominated investor sentiment. Italy and Spain markets closed with 3% losses, while Germany, France and UK markets ended mixed. With no major data reported yesterday, US markets closed in mixed with Dow Jones slipping 0.20% while S&P 500 and NASDAQ eking out gains of 0.14% and 0.78% respectively.

Nifty closed in the negative by 75 points at 5064 just below its support of 5065;; moreover those alone weren’t the only problems that were to be faced as FITCH lowered India’s sovereign debt rating to negative from stable.

 For today the markets could come under pressure; however it could turn out that trading would be mixed as we turn into FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and the possible reactions to it. Therefore the support levels for intraday lies in 5060 levels (Falling trend line) followed by 5012 levels (horizontal Line support). Only a breach of 5044 levels could trigger another bearish trend for the Nifty to test 4954 levels (61.80% retracement). Resistance at 5082-5090 levels (50% retracement) followed by 5120 levels.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_19.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee slipped to its lowest levels in almost a week on Monday after the domestic central bank kept the benchmark interest rates unchanged, while Fitch downgrade of country’s outlook and late session cues from the European markets also hurting sentiment. The partially convertible Rupee fell to as low as 56.04 to the USD in the latter half taking domestic and global cues while closed at 55.9050 against the US Dollar as compared to Friday’s finish at 55.39.

Weakness in the local shares to contributed to the weakness in the INR. Indian shares dropped more than 1.4% marking their biggest percentage fall since June 1, led by a sell-off in Banking and financial sector after the central bank unexpectedly kept interest rates on hold. The RBI in its monetary policy review cited its continued concerns about inflationary pressures and weakening domestic fundamentals for no change in rates.

The home currency is expected to open lower on Tuesday tracking weakness in the Asian markets and after the EURUSD fell sharply against the day’s high at 1.2750 levels yesterday. Today morning, the common currency is trading with marginal gains which might provide some support to the local unit, though overall trend seems to be weak.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 14th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_14.06.2012_xDirect India

Indian equity indices managed to pull back from session lows, they closed just marginally higher, as uncertainty over the RBI policy action on June 18th kept market players wondering on the result that would affect the outcome to Indian capital markets. The undercurrent was also cautious before the release of the latest WPI inflation report on Thursday. Major Asian markets posted decent gains while the European markets were trading nearly flat after a higher start. Worries over the euro zone credit crisis persisted ahead of Italian bond auction later this week and Greek Elections on June 17.
There was a volatile trading session witnessed in Nifty yesterday, where it ended the session with a mere 18 points gain; however did scale up over the resistance line of 5100 levels, poising to touch 5150 levels for the day; however we do have the WPI data that is to bee reported which may cause some amount of rift as traders gear up for the RBI rate policy decision next week.
Support lies in at interim levels of around 5100, followed by 5080-5075 levels and then 5025levels. If there are dips in the market then it should be as an opportunity to buy in the market; however on the global front we do have Greece elections to come up this Sunday. Resistance at 5150 followed by 5210 (38.20% retracement is witnessed)

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_14.06.2012_xDirect India

The currency market remains indecisive yesterday  before  the  crucial  Greece election on 17th June and Italian bond sale which is due today. In the global market, the EURUSD remained higher despite Moody’s cuts Spain rating to Baa3 from A3. Further cuts may come, according to Moody’s, warning that the country may eventually be cut to junk. Spain’s is not in a position for A or BAA ratings, the agency said. We presume due to dismal data on the retail growth in US that reported an unchanged improvement from its previous levels of -0.20% states that US consumers hasn’t revived their consumption habits, in which the nation thrives on.

Indian Rupee Intraday Outlook:
However after the initial rally till 1.26 on EUR/USD there was a slight pullback however we presume that some sort of risk-off  trigger  if  provided  then  a downside on EUR/USD could result in US Dollar buying eventually pushing USD/INR once again to over 56.00 levels.
We expect USDINR to trade sideways with Italian bonds which would be in focus for today. A good bid on the auctions would definitely play a good role in risk –on environment   giving   boost   to   INR appreciation.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report, 11th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_11.06.2012_xDirect India

The downside on the Indian equity markets was capped and moreover also sentiments in the global markets aided the Nifty to end the week on a higher note, wherever an upside was witnessed to its biggest levels since March end-April beginning week.  Investors in the equity market seem to discount the factors of a rate cut by the RBI, which was also coupled with solid gains on the infrastructure sectors as PM meets other cabinet ministers to plan out an action initiating developments in infra region.
The 30-share index, Sensex surged 753.71 points, or 4.72% to 16,718.87 for the week ended June 8, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty added 226.75 points, or 4.68%, to 5,068.35 during the week.
The Friday’s close ended the price action over and above the 5070 mark, which has now aided the price to open gap-up on the back of strong export figures and revived improved levels in imports, which has lifted market sentiments that world’s largest consumer has regained composure. Moreover the conference call among Euro Zone Finance Ministers also decided to provide bailout package to Spanish Banks.

Today we expect the positive note continue furthermore on the back of a follow through on the positive news from China and Euro Zone. Opening above 5084 mark (50% retracement) would now turn out as its support levels followed by 5060- 5070. The price action is poised to touch 5150 levels in today’s session followed by 5178 (Horizontal line resistance)

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_11.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian rupee lost v/s the US dollar on Friday despite firm move in the domestic share market. On Friday, the rupee suffered from falls in global risk assets on the back of the lackk of clarity on potential U.S. monetary stimulus, worries China will post weak data on Saturday, and concerns about Spanish banking woes.
Today, the sentiment is positive in the global market with stock markets, the euro and oil rallied after less bad Chinese data then expected along with a Spain’s bank bailout. The market welcomed the weekend news that Spain secured a EUR100 billion ($125 billion) loan to bolster its banking system, which makes the country the fourth and largest Euro Zone economy to be rescued by its euro-zone partners.
On Saturday, China released economic data which showed a weakening economy, but was not as bad as some expected. The PBoC made a surprise cut to interest rates ahead of the data, which was taken as a signal by the market that May’s figures were going to be very bad. As per data, China’s trade surplus was $18.7bn in May, a touch bigger than its $18.4bn surplus in April. Industrial production nudged up to a 9.6 per cent rise from 9.3 per cent in April. Inflation receded to 3.0 per cent year-on on-year in May, the lowest in two years and down from 3.4 per cent in April. Today, the Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.1% and Korea’s Kospi was 1.7% higher. Singapore’s Strait Times Index rose 1.5% and the China Shanghai Composite was up 0.3%.

Immediate support is at 55.30 and 55.10 levels. Intraday resistance is at 55.43 and then at 55.55 levels. Any pullback towards the resistance is ideal for selling.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 8th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_08.06.2012_xDirect India

Markets continued inspiring from risen hope of policy rate cut and positive market sentiments after PM Dr. Manmohan Singh announced a big push to the infrastructure development in the country. European and Asian markets were up too over the speculation that Central Bank will respond with stimulus measures to resolve the crisis in Spanish banks. Asian markets were positive on the expectations that China will cut key policy rates to ease growth. Overall, the world equity markets witnessed a good rally. Interest sensitive sectors – banks, infra, auto, real estate etc performed well on the expectation of rate cut in the monetary policy to be announced on June 18, 2012.

The Nifty has managed to sustain & close above the 5,000-5,020 levels which are still signifying a bullish signal. The index has strong support at 5,000 levels on the downside. There is an immediate resistance at 5,060 levels on the upside and on a close above expect rise to 5,120 & 5,140 levels. Downside support of 4978 levels (low of June 7th, 2012) should be tested if bearish trend persists 4954.2 (61.8% retracement).

However considering the equity markets will take cues from the ongoing sentiments of the global indices that has diverted towards downhill after US Federal Reserve Chairman remained silent and still resilient on increasing further stimulus in the market.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_08/06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee moved above the key 55 barrier late Thursday, hitting its strongest level in more than two weeks against the Greenback, better than expected bond auctions by Spain and France, healthy gains in the domestic stock markets and rate cut in China in late trade boosted revival in global risk sentiment. The home currency stepped up to 54.94 against the USD as compared to Wednesday’s close of 55.36. Earlier during the day it hit a high of 54.92, its strongest level since May 28.

Indian Rupee Intraday Outlook:

The Indian Rupee is expected to open with moderate losses on Friday as weakness in the Asian stocks after Bernanke comments appended by the drop in the EURUSD would impute a bearish sentiment while trading in the local currency.

The  resistance  at  55.25  (at  23.6% retracement) is witnessed following a breach would push it towards 55.40 and 55.72 levels. Support at 55.02 would be well kept; however if global markets would once again resume their risk appetite trends then lower end of the bullish channel would be tested in at 54.75.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 7th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

 India’s benchmark indices rose 2.7% on Wed, posting their biggest daily percentage gain since early January 2012 that was boosted by hopes of a rate cut by the RBI. Expectations that the ECB will announce more stimulus measures to resolve Euro Zone’s financial problems also contributed to the gains in global markets.

Market has moved upp in the expectation of policy actions both at India and International levels. We anticipate market may test resistance at around 5050-5075 and will need actual policy actions from various governments to cross this level.
Market  sentiments  were  positive on  the announcement from the European Central Bank issuing a schedule for an additional long term refinancing operation (LTRO) as insurance against further flight of banks accounts in Europe. Rising hope of policy rate cut by RBI, expected positive outcome from upcoming realty and construction sector also moved on the back of cuts in rates from the RBI.

Nifty has breached the resistance of 4965 levels, where decisively it portrays a bullish pattern. Only a further trigger should bee provided from various governments in order for a clean upside rally in the equity markets. Index is likely to cross 5,000 mark to test levels at 5,060 followed by 5,120 levels. As positions on net buyers have increased the support of 4960 should be labeled as an opportunity to go long, a break of which 4938 should be held as intraday support. Nevertheless the breach of the same should negate the bullish sentiments across the market.

View On Indian Rupee

USD/INR_07.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee advanced for the third straight session against the Greenback led by improving risk appetite amidst increasing hopes of stimulus from larger economies. Gains in the domestic stock markets too aided the strength in the local currency which has been able to stay well above the record low of 56.52 hit on last Thursday.

Yesterday, the partially convertible Rupee ended at 55.36 to the USD after trading in a range between 55.61 on the upside to 55.15 on the downside and ended the day at 55.35.
The Indian Rupee is expected to trade positively today, tracking the strong gains in the Asian stocks and the uptick in the Euro which pushing the Dollar index lower. Nevertheless a rate cut from RBI should actually pave for depreciation in Indian Rupee; however as equity markets rally’s across the board the depreciation would be negated by boosting the strength in the Indian Rupee.

As London session begins we expect a further upside in the Indian rupee, where the USDINR would be poised to test the lower end of the bull trend channel at 54.80 levels and only a breach and close below it should provide leeway for 54.35 levels (horizontal line support coupled with June1st low). On the resistance front, yesterday’s high of 55.61 should negate the downside in the pair and should be considered as intraday upper resistance.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 6th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_06.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian equity markets ended flat however the bias on the same remained on the positive bias as the speculation of quantitative easing made spillovers onto the Asian markets. The robust data on ISM figures even from the US actually made a drastic recovery towards the upside which gave enough boost to the equity markets. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex gained 32.24 points or 0.20% at 16,020.64 with 188 components registering rise. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 15.15 points or 0.31% at 4,863.30 with 30 components posting rise.
The Indian markets are likely to remain choppy as European concerns bloats up with concerns of Greece still looming in and where Moody’s downgrading German banks ahead of the EU Summit is also weighing more on the bearish front.
Nevertheless, the rally could be seen another opportunity to go on the sell-side, as there’s absence of any sort of triggers for further flow into the market. Before the RBI meet the rally towards   4800-4900 could be  a  good opportunity for another round of selling bout.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Report_06.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee once again witnessed a volatile trading session with the currency opening in the positive territory though couldn’t managed to hold on to its early gains. The home currency rise in the early part of the trading session was led by speculation the central bank will lower borrowing costs in its forthcoming monetary policy meeting, reducing the rate for the second time in 2012 to support economic growth. At the end of the day,, the INR finished at 55.64 at the spot market against Monday’s close of 55.66. The Indian stock markets too followed a similar trend wherein they opened with healthy gains tracking, however gave away most of the gains to finish modestly in the green. The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty both were higher by around 0.2% at close.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 30th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_30.5.2012-xDirect India

The initial trading on the Indian markets that opened in thee positive note, nevertheless steamed out its positive up move, as the
benchmark index closed in flat in yesterday’s session. The strength in the US Dollar persisted, where every dips in the same is turning out to be an opportunity for the traders to buy on it. Moreover the month end buying on the US Dollar from the importers has actually led further depreciation in the Indian Rupee that has choked on the positive move in the Indian markets.
The back-to-back blows on risk aversion were provided on the back of subdued US Consumer Confidence (May) that slid to 64.9 from its expectations of 70.0 moreover with fresh downgrade on Spanish Banks; the risk appetite had to dissolve among bull-traders itself.
For today the markets may remain under pressure,  however if  certain amount  of pullback on the US Dollar is witnessed then the negative verse of Nifty could be gripped eminently.

Nifty closed below the crucial 5000 mark closing marginally below the 4,990 mark. However the support is maintained at 4920 levels for the intraday and a break should enable the price action to test 4875 levels.
Resistance is maintained at 4960-4975 levels and only a close above the 5000 mark should trigger a bull rally.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_30.5.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee fell on Tuesday, breaking a three day winning streak, as stronger Dollar in the international markets coupled with Dollar demand from oil firms to meet their month end import commitments inflicted trading sentiment locally. The downtick in the Indian Stock markets from day’s high too weighed the trading momentum heavily.
Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR: The home currency is expected to trade weak today imputed by the weakness in the Euro. EURUSD trading at two year low is also putting pressure on almost all Asian markets currencies in the early morning on Wednesday. Volatility is expected to be high specifically in the afternoon trade as markets will look for fresh cues from the European markets.
A certain downside could be expected considering  the data’ss reported yesterday would be priced in; moreover some amount of profit booking could be witnessed, as the gap has been filled.
Resistance at 56.30 followed by 56.38 would be watched.
Support at 55.90 would be well kept however if we see a breach then intraday low of 55.65 would be tested.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 24th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

nifty_24.5.2012_xDirect India

A yet another day of liquidation in equity markets, on basis of risk aversion has taken its toll in the SENSEX that ended below 16,000 marking its lowest level since January 7th, 2012. The uncertainty on the economy has indeed choked investors, which was backed by
the Rupee depreciation. USD/INR in spot has marked its highest level ever at 56.30 amid weak global trends, where SENSEX after marking a 157 drop further added about 80 points fall in the same session, as weakness in thee net importing economy would indeed makes consumption  more expensive.
For today, perhaps some sort of respite could be provided; however we should be watchful during the European session, wherein after a freefall in these markets that recorded a 2% fall, was witnessed, due to Greek issue and failure on providing any sort decision on Summit that was held yesterday.
Today, markets could witness some buying however; if risk aversion intensifies the buying on the counter could turn out to be a huge bout of selling.
Nifty finds its immediate support at 4804, where a breach could push it lower towards 4765 (Low of May 18th). Resistance at 4850 would be well kept for today wherein only a daily close above 4940 would be considered as a meaningful correction.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_24.5.2012_xDirectIndia

The Indian Rupee continued its losing streak against the US Dollar and slipped below the psychological 56 mark on Wednesday. It plunged to an Intra-day low of 56.30, hitting a record low for the sixth straight session before finally closing at 56 levels against the USD. The fall in the Rupee persisted despite uninterrupted assurances and interventions in the currency markets by the Reserve Bank of India. Yesterday’s fall was led by demand for the Greenback from importers and banks amid rising risk aversion in the global markets. The has weakened more than 3% in the last three trading session while from its recent highs in Feb this year, the INR is down by over 23%, making its one of the most under-performing currencies amongst the globe.

Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR:
The RSI is its highest level since November 22, 2011 where constant upside has kept market to go short; however if European situation deteriorates then this would be followed by heavy selling in Euro and high yielding assets, causing US Dollar to strengthen.
For the trend we still keep our bias towards upside wherein after achieving our 1st target off 56.25. The objective remains to 56.68 for now (Both Fibonacci extensions). Supports are seen towards 55.95 and then 55.82 for today and only a daily close below 55.45 should be considered as a correction from its consistent upside.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report, 23rd May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis-23.5.12_xDirectIndia

Indian markets settled on a lower note as rupee tumbled to an all time low amid fears of slowing economic growth. The market opened positive tracking the US markets which closed in the green yesterday with Dow Jones up more than 1%  on  Monday.  The  rupee nevertheless recovered slightly in the morning at 54.6025 after breaching the 55 mark in yesterday’s session. The upside on the Indian Rupee should be now matched with the US Dollar strength that rose up to 16-month high. The 100 points fall in the Nifty is now going to take its toll further, as importers demand for US Dollar increases as month-end nears. Unless the government does not take necessary stance to
cut down on its subsidy burden there will be demand on the US Dollar considering its strength on the board. For today markets are to remain under pressure and thus may trade on sideways to bearish mode for today.

Nifty has its immediate support at 4804, a breach of which would test levels around 4765 (Low of May 18th, 2012). Resistance should be maintained 4840 and then 4885 and only a close above levels of 4885 should be considered as a meaningful correction in the indice.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR-23.5.12_xDirectIndia

The Indian Rupee opened on a positive note yesterday trading near the 54.65 level (against the US Dollar after the central bank introduced measures preventing banks from taking large positions in currency exchanges. Though the
optimism was short lived, it tumbled marking another day of record –low levels closing at 55.39 against the US Dollar. The home currency fell to touch an intra-day low at 55.47 as traders sold the INR owing to reeling growth problems in the domestic economy coupled with rise in the Dollar index.

Intra-day Outlook

Spot USDINR: In the domestic space, the Indian Rupee is expected trade in a narrow range post the persistent losses in past few trading session, with bias still on the weaker side. Volatility is seen continuing on the higher side wherein gains may come only if some concrete steps are taken by the RBI or the Indian government

A certain downside could be witnessed in the pair, where its initial support at 54.60, is well kept; the pair now holds its upside resistance of its bullish trend channel dated from March 8th high of 50.29 at 55.82 hence a breach should form it towards 56.25 and then 56.68 (Fibonacci extensions). Support of 54.60 is not held then wee may see a correction towards 53.95 levels in today’ss session.

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View on Major Currencies & Commodities 26th Dec, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY

EUR/USD: EURO on Friday on Friday which opened at 1.3050 was trading in the range of 1.3100 as resistance and support is seen at 1.3020 where range bound move as seen. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

GBP/USD: British Pound on Friday which opened at 1.5675 failed to trade above 1.5700 and after testing the lower level of 1.5585 closing was seen near days low at 1.5588 level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar on Fridays after the opening at 1.0129 was trading in the range of 1.0200 as resistance and support was seen at 1.0120 and after the range bound move trading was seen positive at 1.0148 level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar on Friday after opening at 0.7743 failed to trade above 0.7760 and on lower side it tested the level of 0.7715 where 0.7700 was support level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen on Friday after opening at 78.16 failed to trade above 78.2 and on lower side support was seen at 78 and closing was just near the support level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES

Gold: Gold on Friday after taking support of 1600$ as trading in the range whereon higher side it failed to cross 1615$ and support was seen at 1600$ as the International market are having holiday its expected to trading in the range where not much move is expected. Today opening was seen flat around 1605$ and is trading at 1604$ where it’s trading in the range of 1610$ resistance on closing basis and support of 1598$ on closing basis, and either side move on closing basis will confirm the trend. In short term time frame some range bound move is expected where 1620$ is resistance and 1570 will be the support level in medium term. On higher side at 1620$ is crossed will bring to 1640$, where as if its holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1540$ on lower side and further trading below 1540$ will continue the down trend on market where 1440$ will be tested in medium term. Stochastic has just popped out above the overbought zone where short room is getting generating before the next down side move which is expected if sustain trading below 1600 on closing basis.

Silver: Silver on Friday after opening at 29.06$ support as taken at 29$ and after testing the higher level of 29.42 closing was seen flat around the level of 29.05$. Today after the opening at 29.08$ trading range is expected of 29.2$ resistance and support will be seen at 29$ and sustain trading below the same will give move towards 28.8 – 28.5 immediately, as the support is holding strongly in past few trading session. Whereas further trading below 28$ will bring to 26$ – 24$ in near to medium term. On higher side only on closing basis above 30 - 31$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. Stochastic has just neared the oversold zone around 20% and is trading flat indicating if the resistance is holding and if the price trade below 28$ will bring to next support of 24$ in near term.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude on Friday after the opening at 107.79$ was trading in the range where on higher side it failed to cross the level of 108.5$ and on lower side support was seen at 107$ and closing was just positive at 107.97$. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic has near he overbought zone where some side wait and watch for the week end is advise.

Copper: Copper after the positive opening at 7455 after taking support of 4730 traded positive and tested the level of 7500 and closing was also seen at days high. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic has near he overbought zone where some side wait and watch for the week end is advise.

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xDirect India

View on Major Currencies & Commodities 20th Dec 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY

EUR/USD: EURO yesterday after the opening at 1.3035 failed to trade above 1.3050 and on lower side it tested the level of 1.2982 where 1.2980 was the support taken and closing was also seen near the days low at 1.2995 level. Today’s opening was seen at 1.2996 level and taking the higher resistance of 1.3030 is trading at 1.3010 and expect to trade negative in the range of 1.3050 and 1.2900 for the day. We are looking at some selling pressure in Euro from higher level where it’s not expected to trade above and cross 1.3050 and is expected to test 1.2850 in medium terms. Stochastic which has given a down trend is nearing the mid zone below 30% moving to enter oversold zone indicating further selling to continue in near term.

GBP/USD: British Pound yesterday after the opening at 1.5523 was trading in the range where on higher side resistance was seen at 1.5541 and on lower side support was seen at 1.5466 level where closing was seen negative 1.5495 level. Today the opening was seen flat around the level of 1.5496 and taking support of 1.5480 is trading at 1.5540 level and expected trading range will be 1.5580 – 1.5450. Further trading below 1.5450 will continue the down trend where 1.5400 to 1.5350 will be immediate target. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1.5580 and crossover above the same will move to test 1.5650 to 1.5750 again. Till the time 1.5580 is holding on closing basis short correction can be expected. Stochastic which were trading in mid zone with positive intersection is nearing the higher zone where some upside may be expected.

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar yesterday after the opening was seen at 0.9920 failed to trade positive and tested the lower level of 0.9880 and closing was also seen near the lower level of 0.9894 level. Today after positive opening around 0.9893 it fails to cross higher resistance of 1.0000 and is trading at 0.9940 where immediate resistance is seen at 0.9950 and if trading is seen below 0.9900 will move to test 0.9840 and 0.9800 immediately. On higher side sustain trading above immediate resistance level of 0.9980 will bring to 1.0100 level. Stochastic has given negative intersection just in the mid zone where down side move can be expected.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar yesterday after the opening at 0.7634 traded negative and tested the lower level of 0.7940 and closing was also seen negative at 0.7548 levels. Today the opening was seen sideway at 0.7549 taking support of 0.7500 it is trading at 0.7585 levels where on higher side resistance is seen at 0.7650 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is expected and will test 0.7440 to 0.7350 in near term. We expected some range bound to down side move in market where 0.7500 is resistance and support is seen at 0.7350 and selling at rise is advice in near term. Stochastic has drifted below overbought zone where if price trade below support level correction may be seen of recent sharp rally.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen yesterday closing was seen at 77.97 after testing lower level of 77.62 where it’s trading positive and in range bound move where 78.5 was almost retested. Today opening was seen at 77.9 and is trading just above 77.65 near 77.86 levels where support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Trading range can be seen for the day where 78.3 will be higher side resistance and support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Stochastic has given positive intersection where side way move in price can be expected.

VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES

Gold: Gold yesterday was trading in the tight range where on higher side it failed to sustain above 1608$ where 1610$ was the resistance and on lower side it took a support of 1583 where 1580 was support level. Today opening was seen positive around 1593$ and is trading at 1598$ where it’s trading near the resistance level of 1605$ and till the time 1605$ is holding we expect it to test 1580$ and 1540$ to be tested immediately. In short term time frame some range bound move is expected where 1620$ is resistance and 1570 will be the support level. On higher side at 1605$ is crossed will bring to 1620$, where as if its holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1540$ on lower side and further trading below 1540$ will continue the down trend on market where 1470$ will be tested. Stochastic has just popped out above the overbought zone where short room is getting generating before the next down side move which is expected if sustain trading below 1580 on closing basis.

Silver: Silver yesterday after positive opening at 29.72 failed to cross the higher resistance of 30$ and tested the lower level of 28.66 where closing was seen at days low of 28.74 level. Today after the opening at 28.75 it has taken the previous days low as support of 28.66 and is trading at 28.98 $ where immediate resistance is seen at 29$ and if fails to cross the higher resistance and sustain trading below 28.8 will bring to 28 $ in near term, where as further trading below 28 will bring to 26 – 24 in near to medium term. On higher side only on closing basis above 31$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. Stochastic has just neared the oversold zone around 20% and is trading flat indicating if the resistance is holding and if the price trade below 28$ will bring to next support of 24$ in near term.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude yesterday after the opening was seen at 102.8 has taken support @ 102.2 and reversal was seen in the price where on higher side it tested the level of 104.55 level and closing was seen at 103.45 level. Today after he opening was seen gap up around the level of 104.1 tested the level of 104.44 failing to cross the previous days high and is trading around the level of 103.9 days low where its expected to trade and over to test 103.2 and 102.5 immediately, further trading below 102.5 will being to 100.5 and 98 in near term. Crossover above 105$ is must for further uptrend to continue where we wait for closing basis breakout for higher level of 111$. If sustain trading below 102.5$ will open the door for 101 to 98$ on lower side till the time 105$ is holding for the day. Stochastic is trading flat to negative in the mid zone where is turned negative and is expected to move towards the 15% where some more down side can be seen in the price in coming days.

Copper: Copper after the gap down opening at 7230 was trading in the range where on lower side support was seen at 7200 and on higher side resistance was seen at 7300 where closing was flat at 7250 level. Today we look side way to negative trend to continue where will test 7200 level soon and only if the resistance of 7400 break will continue the uptrend where it will test 7150 – 7050 level immediately. Stochastic has turned negative and is just drifted below oversold zone where it is just below 20% zone where further price action will bring it towards oversold zone.

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View on Major Currencies & Commodities 19th Dec, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY


EUR/USD: EURO on Friday was trading I the range of 1.2995 lower supports and on higher side resistance was seen at 1.3085 and closing was flat to positive at 1.3035 level. Today’s opening was seen at 1.3030 level and taking the higher resistance of 1.3050 is trading at 1.3000 and expect to trade negative in the range of 1.3050 and 1.2800 for the day. We are looking at some selling pressure in Euro from higher level where it’s not expected to trade above and cross 1.3150 and is expected to test 1.2800 in medium terms. Stochastic which has given a down trend is nearing the mid zone below 30% moving to enter oversold zone indicating further selling to continue in near term.

GBP/USD: British Pound on Friday was trading in the range of 1.5480 lower side support and resistance was seen at 1.5555 level. Today the opening was seen flat around the level of 1.5225 and taking support of 1.5460 is trading at 1.5490 level and expected trading range will be 1.5550 – 1.5400. Further trading below 1.5450 will continue the down trend where 1.5400 to 1.5350 will be immediate target. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1.5550 and crossover above the same will move to test 1.5800 to 1.5900 again. Till the time 1.5550 is holding on closing basis short correction can be expected. Stochastic which were trading in mid zone with positive intersection is nearing the higher zone where some upside may be expected.

AUS/USD: Australian Dollar on Friday which open at 0.9980 failed totrade below 0.9890 and after testing the higher level of 1.0025 clsoing was seen at 0.9965 level. Today after positive opening around 0.9986 it fails to cross higher resistance of 1.0000 and is trading at 0.9920 where immediate resistance is seen at 0.9950 and if trading is seen below 0.9900 will move to test 0.9840 and 0.9800 immediately. On higher side sustain trading above immediate resistance level of 0.9980 will bring to 1.0100 level. Stochastic has given negative intersection just in the mid zone where down side move can be expected.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar on Friday opening at 0.7527 failed to trade below 0.7500 and after testing the higher level of 0.7650 closing was seen at 0.7600 level. Today the opening was seen positive at 0.7635 taking support of 0.7570 it is trading at 0.7595 level where on higher side resistance is seen at 0.7650 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is expected and will test 0.7440 to 0.7350 in near term. We expected some range bound to down side move in market where 0.7500 is resistance and support is seen at 0.73500 and selling at rise is advice in near term. Stochastic has drifted below overbought zone where if price trade below support level correction may be seen of recent sharp rally.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen yesterday closing was seen at 77.97 after testing lower level of 77.62 where it’s trading positive and in range bound move where 78.5 was almost retested. Today opening was seen at 77.9 and is trading just above 77.65 near 77.86 levels where support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Trading range can be seen for the day where 78.3 will be higher side resistance and support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Stochastic has given positive intersection where side way move in price can be expected.

VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES


Gold: Gold on Friday after the opening at 1605 failed to trade below1570$ and reversal in price was seen and after testing the days high of 1601$ closing was seen at 1597$ which was just below the resistance level of 1600$. Today opening was seen positive around 1602$ and is trading at 1588$ where it’s trading near the support level of 1580$ and till the time 1600$ is holding we expect it to test 1550$ and 1540$ to be tested immediately. On higher side at 1600$ where if it holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1540$ on lower side and further trading below 1540$ will continue the down trend on market where 1470$ will be tested. Stochastic has entered in the oversold zone and is still moving down side where if the support level is crossed will further move lower and will indicate down trend to continue.

Silver: Silver on Friday which opened at 29.25$ tested the lower level of 29.08 where it failed to cross the lower level of 29 and reversal in price were seen where it tested the higher level of 29.89 and closing was also seen at 29.62$ just facing resistance at 30$. Today after the flat opening at 28.9$ it is trading at 28.5$ where on lower side support is taken at 28 $ and next support is coming at 26$. If sustain trading is seen below 28$ will test the lower level of 26$ to 24$ immediately, where as only crossover above 31$ on closing basis will bring to 35$ next resistance level. On higher side only on closing basis above 31$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. Stochastic has just neared the oversold zone around 20% and is trading flat indicating if the resistance is holding and if the price trade below 28$ will bring to next support of 24$ in near term.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude on Friday where the positive opening was seen at 104.23$ from the previous closing of 103.2$ after testing the fresh low of 102.4$ reversal in price were seen and closing was seen at 103.74 after testing the days high of 104.52$. Today after gap down opening at 102.87 failed to cross the higher resistance of 103 and is trading at 102.6 $ where below 102.4$ is support if broken further down side move can be expected. Crossover above 105$ is must for further uptrend to continue where we wait for closing basis breakout for higher level of 111$. If sustain trading below 102.5$ will open the door for 101 to 98$ on lower side till the time 105$ is holding for the day. Stochastic is trading flat to negative in the mid zone where is turned negative and is expected to move towards the 25% where some more down side can be seen in the price in coming days.

Copper: Copper yesterday after the gap up opening at 7307 tested the higher resistance of 7400 and closing was seen flat around the level of 7300 where on lower side support was seen at 7260 level. Today we look side way to negative trend to continue where will test 7250 level soon and only if the resistance of 7400 break will continue the uptrend where it will test 7150 – 7450 level immediately. Today expected to give opening near to 7250 and expected trading range will be 7600 to 7300 where selling is advise on every rise till the time resistance is holding at 8000. Stochastic has turned negative and is just drifted below overbought zone where it is just below 20% zone where further price action will bring it towards oversold zone.

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