Nifty & USD/INR Report 1st August, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_01.08.2102_xDirect India

Indian equities ended the volatile session higher with some buying seen in index heavy weights. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has come out with its first quarter Monetary Policy review, albeit policy stance for this meet is in line with general consensus. Again, RBI has maintained its status quo stance and kept the rates unchanged and cut SLR by 1%. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex gained 92.50 points or 0.54% at 17,236.18 with 17 components registering rise. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 29.20 points or 0.56% at 5,229.00 with 30 components posting rise.

There is an Immediate Resistance at 5,24040-5,260 levels on the upside, expect selling pressure to continue at higher levels unless index manages to sustain and close above it. The breaks of crucial support of 5,210-5,190 levels expect declines to 5,140 & 5,120 levels in the near term.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_01.08.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee extended losses on Monday falling to its lowest levels in almost a week led by weak cues across the Asian and European stocks markets and post the acute drop in the Euro on Friday which slipped to its two year lows below the 1.2300 level. Broad weakness in the domestic stock markets also put pressure on the local currency which finished with a loss of a percentage yesterday. It seems even though a slight positive reaction in the European currencies did not aid any boost to risk appetite neither towards appreciation to INR value. We therefore require a more of a fundamental trigger that would enable an upside in the same.

The USDINR pair seems to hold its daily Fibonacci support at 55.74 and if it continues to do so then we are looking at 55.92, 56.08 and then 56.14.

However a break of intraday low which is also the support (Fibonacci) then 55.65 followed by 55.50 would be tested. We keep our bias on the upside.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 12th July, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis By xDirect India

Indian equities extended intraday losses and is near day’s low as traders continued to book profits after a sharp up-move in last session and weak global cues. Brokers said reports of less than average monsoon rains this season might hamper efforts to boost economy and hurt company earnings this quarter impacted the market sentiment. The IMD said that monsoon, the life- line of Indian agriculture, has covered the entire country but rains are still deficient by 23%. Indian markets ended today`s session on a lower note on the back of weak global cues and heavy selling witnessed in auto, FMCG, realty and metal stocks.

The gap down open in the market has definitely enabled the sellers to prompt their activities considering we had yet other depressing FOMC minutes where no sign of QE was provided. This shifted the mindset of traders which now in turn are in selling activities. The immediate resistance comes in at 5290 levels followed by 5325 levels on the rising trend line (former support and now resistance). Expect selling pressure to remain at higher levels unless we have a fundamental trigger which makes the price action to close above 5320 levels, would negate the bearish bias.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis By xDirect India

The Indian Rupee extended losses on Monday falling to its lowest levels in almost a week led by weak cues across the Asian and European stocks markets and post the acute drop in the Euro on Friday which slipped to its two year lows below the 1.2300 level. Broad weakness in the domestic stock markets also put pressure on the local currency which finished with a loss of a percentage yesterday. It seems even though a slight positive reaction in the European currencies did not aid any boost to risk appetite neither towards appreciation to INR value. We therefore require a more of a fundamental trigger that would enable an upside in the same.

The USDINR pair seems to hold its daily Fibonacci support at 55.74 and if it continues to do so then we are looking at 55.92, 56.08 and then 56.14. However a break of intraday low which is also the support (Fibonacci) then 55.65 followed by 55.50 would be tested. We keep our bias on the upside.


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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 3rd July, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_03.07.2012_xDirect India

Indian equity markets snapped its winning streak however this could be only due to profit booking on the counter. Moreover domestic fundamentals has a better offering despite the fact global uncertainties loom in with Non Farm Payrolls on the horizon at the end of the week. It is such that the Prime Minister has decided to take over the responsibilities of Finance Ministry as well and therefore could provide necessary means for the reforms to take action.

Meanwhile HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.0 to marking a 4-month high which has increased from54.8 in May, resulting in an expansion in the economy. Markets have opened in the positive but has slipped from its high of5303 levels. We still hold the support levels of 5270 to be pivotal for it to mark as a level which if broken would result in a shortterm bearish bias. On the upside resistance of 5360-5375 still remains as an target level as long as supports of 5270 is held; nevertheless a breach would result into 5210 levels on the downside.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_03.07.2012_xDirect India

The Indian posted third consecutive positive closing on Monday as market optimism led by the host of measures announced in the EU summit last week still drove markets higher. While day’s economic data from different economies came mixed, the relief rally continued in most Asian and European markets also driving decent gains inn the Asian currency space. At the Interbank exchange in Mumbai, the INR finished at 55.43 against Friday’s finish of 55.6050.  Indian stock markets dipped marginally on Monday, snapping four days of gains mainly due to profit booking in the stable FMCG sector. India’s benchmark, BSE Sensex 30 fell 0.2% to 17,398.99 points whereas broader NSE Nifty 50 fell 0.01% to 5,278.60 points.
 Indian Rupee is expected to continue trade with a positive bias tracking the moderate bullishness in the Euro and gains in most emerging markets. However this week most of the major economic data is only expected in the US session and therefore some sort of short term (intraday) momentum could be expected.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 26th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

xDirect India's Nifty Analysis_26.06.2012

Benchmark indices ended weak erasing early gains, as investors were not impressed by the RBI’s measures to stem the rupee’s fall and the government did not announce any reforms as pledged last week. RBI enhanced the FII limit in G-Secs to $20 billion from $15 billion. It also allowed Indian companies in infrastructure to borrow through the ECB route up to $10 bn. The low amount of liquidity would obviously take away volatility and volumes which eventually turned out to be a negative session for the Nifty. Even the global markets were quite sticky with risk aversion combined with overselling kept the price movements range bound with the US Dollar just bouncing on every dips.

With the sudden drop in the market being witnessed yesterday, the government has announced today that it would take necessary steps to stem the Rupee depreciation; nevertheless these comments came in futile as global uncertainty has indeed gripped on the bull traders to resume on their trading with INR still hovering at its all-time low levels. For today we have a light on the counter from Euro Zone and UK, but US Consumer Confidence being the most important. However the Indian markets would trade sideways with supports coming in at interim levels of 5095 levels (Rising trend line). Followed by 5050 (50% retracement) and then 5023 (Falling trend line). Resistance is seen towards 5140, 5178 levels; however considering bearish trend has been commenced we believe Nifty has little chance of building momentum over 5180 levels for the week.

View on Indian Rupee

xDirect India's USD/INR Analysis_26.06.2012

The Indian Rupee gained sharply in yesterday’s trade bolstered by the expectations of big-bang policy measures from the Government of India and the RBI. The Rupee opened sharply higher and continued rising to make a high near the 56.3750 level. Though it weakened from day’s high and ended at 57.01 to the US Dollar after the measures  introduced by the RBI disappointed markets.

The main step announced was to increase in the cap on foreign investment in Indian government debt  to  $20  billion  from  $15  billion.  The government also reduced the minimum period investors need to hold some bonds to three years from five years, making them more attractive to foreign funds.

The Indian Rupee is expected to trade in a tight spot where in, where on the upside the resistance is seen towards 57.42 (Fibonacci extension) followed by 57.65 levels. Supports come in at 56.40 (yesterday session low). There might be some sort of positives seen in the market considering the constant selling but we believe the bear trend would resume considering the ill-liquid FOMC state,, followed by the multiple downgrades. For today however we would want the US Consumer Confidence to give some amount of boost as yesterday’s housing sales marked good numbers, its best in 3 years.

For today the market is expected to be range bound however, where European session may mark some amount of swings in the global market which may give certain movement in the currency pair.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 21st June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_21.06.2012_xDirect India

The choppy but somewhat positive movements in yesterday’s global market have indeed given Indian equity markets the required boost. Nevertheless the swings on both ends were provided by the fundamental trigger given by Bank of England that apparently chose to boost the stimulus regime in the economy which indeed is required for to boost the banking sector in the region. However the bets on QE kept on rising till the end of Indian markets that managed to close in the positive. The positive terrain was led by the sectors in Metals, Capital Goods, healthcare and Automotives.

Today however as the QE bets faded some amount of pressure could be eased for the markets to look forward to the negative side of the global economic scenario. Where as they have factored on the QE it is now to look forward to the fundamental triggers from the Euro Zone end, while today market has opened slightly on the flat note further swings would be provided by the reaction in the European markets.

The immediate support on Nifty comes in at 5080 levels (50% retracement) and only a breach of this would threaten in another bout of selling in the counter, where the support levels would be followed in by 5043 (falling trend line). Resistance comes in at 5140 levels and if the levels close in anywhere around or over it then we would change our bias to positive on the same, where the price action played in within the confines of this levels then it would be range -bound play.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_21.06.2012_xDirect Ind

The Indian Rupee closed in the negative as despite the Indian equities managing to close in the positive did not provide the necessary boost to Indian Rupee that closed lower against the US Dollar.
Amongst other major news in the domestic markets, rating agency Fitch revised the outlook of a no. of major Indian banks including SBI, PNB, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, IDBI Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, EXIM Bank of India among others.

In the global space, the major US Federal Reserve meeting ended yesterday wherein the Central bank kept its interest rates on hold and extend its so called Bond buying program named Operation Twist towards the end of this year. The Fed said it will prolong the program and expects to sell $267 Billion of shorter-term securities and buying the same amount of longer- term debt in a bid to cut borrowing costs and spur thee economy. Both the moves were widely anticipated by thee markets and couldn’t spur any kind of positivism.

Today technically the Spot USD/INR is at a standpoint of either breaking the resistance of 56.42 therefore marking a new highh towards 57.00 levels, or holding those levels that would be only be possible for a string of positive data’s to tests its intraday low of 56.10 and even though this level would be considered for initiating a buy we would recommend to ponder on the European & US equity markets that would break the levels of 56.10 to test lower levels of 55.80 to 55.70.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 19th June. 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_19.06.2012_xDirect India

The ongoing worries of Spain that pushed its yield rates to over 7.25% yesterday is overshadowing the Greek elections that came out to attempt a positive vibe in the global market. However, it was soon faded as borrowings become more expensive in the Euro Zone debt ridden nations. The one domestic fundamental that could have provided the much needed support would have been the RBI monetary policy decision; nevertheless all its rates (including CRR) were kept unchanged as RBI still thinks that inflation would be the more sought out problem rather than growth for the economy. European markets too ended mixed as worries about Spain and Italy dominated investor sentiment. Italy and Spain markets closed with 3% losses, while Germany, France and UK markets ended mixed. With no major data reported yesterday, US markets closed in mixed with Dow Jones slipping 0.20% while S&P 500 and NASDAQ eking out gains of 0.14% and 0.78% respectively.

Nifty closed in the negative by 75 points at 5064 just below its support of 5065;; moreover those alone weren’t the only problems that were to be faced as FITCH lowered India’s sovereign debt rating to negative from stable.

 For today the markets could come under pressure; however it could turn out that trading would be mixed as we turn into FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and the possible reactions to it. Therefore the support levels for intraday lies in 5060 levels (Falling trend line) followed by 5012 levels (horizontal Line support). Only a breach of 5044 levels could trigger another bearish trend for the Nifty to test 4954 levels (61.80% retracement). Resistance at 5082-5090 levels (50% retracement) followed by 5120 levels.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_19.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee slipped to its lowest levels in almost a week on Monday after the domestic central bank kept the benchmark interest rates unchanged, while Fitch downgrade of country’s outlook and late session cues from the European markets also hurting sentiment. The partially convertible Rupee fell to as low as 56.04 to the USD in the latter half taking domestic and global cues while closed at 55.9050 against the US Dollar as compared to Friday’s finish at 55.39.

Weakness in the local shares to contributed to the weakness in the INR. Indian shares dropped more than 1.4% marking their biggest percentage fall since June 1, led by a sell-off in Banking and financial sector after the central bank unexpectedly kept interest rates on hold. The RBI in its monetary policy review cited its continued concerns about inflationary pressures and weakening domestic fundamentals for no change in rates.

The home currency is expected to open lower on Tuesday tracking weakness in the Asian markets and after the EURUSD fell sharply against the day’s high at 1.2750 levels yesterday. Today morning, the common currency is trading with marginal gains which might provide some support to the local unit, though overall trend seems to be weak.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report, 11th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_11.06.2012_xDirect India

The downside on the Indian equity markets was capped and moreover also sentiments in the global markets aided the Nifty to end the week on a higher note, wherever an upside was witnessed to its biggest levels since March end-April beginning week.  Investors in the equity market seem to discount the factors of a rate cut by the RBI, which was also coupled with solid gains on the infrastructure sectors as PM meets other cabinet ministers to plan out an action initiating developments in infra region.
The 30-share index, Sensex surged 753.71 points, or 4.72% to 16,718.87 for the week ended June 8, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty added 226.75 points, or 4.68%, to 5,068.35 during the week.
The Friday’s close ended the price action over and above the 5070 mark, which has now aided the price to open gap-up on the back of strong export figures and revived improved levels in imports, which has lifted market sentiments that world’s largest consumer has regained composure. Moreover the conference call among Euro Zone Finance Ministers also decided to provide bailout package to Spanish Banks.

Today we expect the positive note continue furthermore on the back of a follow through on the positive news from China and Euro Zone. Opening above 5084 mark (50% retracement) would now turn out as its support levels followed by 5060- 5070. The price action is poised to touch 5150 levels in today’s session followed by 5178 (Horizontal line resistance)

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_11.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian rupee lost v/s the US dollar on Friday despite firm move in the domestic share market. On Friday, the rupee suffered from falls in global risk assets on the back of the lackk of clarity on potential U.S. monetary stimulus, worries China will post weak data on Saturday, and concerns about Spanish banking woes.
Today, the sentiment is positive in the global market with stock markets, the euro and oil rallied after less bad Chinese data then expected along with a Spain’s bank bailout. The market welcomed the weekend news that Spain secured a EUR100 billion ($125 billion) loan to bolster its banking system, which makes the country the fourth and largest Euro Zone economy to be rescued by its euro-zone partners.
On Saturday, China released economic data which showed a weakening economy, but was not as bad as some expected. The PBoC made a surprise cut to interest rates ahead of the data, which was taken as a signal by the market that May’s figures were going to be very bad. As per data, China’s trade surplus was $18.7bn in May, a touch bigger than its $18.4bn surplus in April. Industrial production nudged up to a 9.6 per cent rise from 9.3 per cent in April. Inflation receded to 3.0 per cent year-on on-year in May, the lowest in two years and down from 3.4 per cent in April. Today, the Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.1% and Korea’s Kospi was 1.7% higher. Singapore’s Strait Times Index rose 1.5% and the China Shanghai Composite was up 0.3%.

Immediate support is at 55.30 and 55.10 levels. Intraday resistance is at 55.43 and then at 55.55 levels. Any pullback towards the resistance is ideal for selling.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 8th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_08.06.2012_xDirect India

Markets continued inspiring from risen hope of policy rate cut and positive market sentiments after PM Dr. Manmohan Singh announced a big push to the infrastructure development in the country. European and Asian markets were up too over the speculation that Central Bank will respond with stimulus measures to resolve the crisis in Spanish banks. Asian markets were positive on the expectations that China will cut key policy rates to ease growth. Overall, the world equity markets witnessed a good rally. Interest sensitive sectors – banks, infra, auto, real estate etc performed well on the expectation of rate cut in the monetary policy to be announced on June 18, 2012.

The Nifty has managed to sustain & close above the 5,000-5,020 levels which are still signifying a bullish signal. The index has strong support at 5,000 levels on the downside. There is an immediate resistance at 5,060 levels on the upside and on a close above expect rise to 5,120 & 5,140 levels. Downside support of 4978 levels (low of June 7th, 2012) should be tested if bearish trend persists 4954.2 (61.8% retracement).

However considering the equity markets will take cues from the ongoing sentiments of the global indices that has diverted towards downhill after US Federal Reserve Chairman remained silent and still resilient on increasing further stimulus in the market.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_08/06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee moved above the key 55 barrier late Thursday, hitting its strongest level in more than two weeks against the Greenback, better than expected bond auctions by Spain and France, healthy gains in the domestic stock markets and rate cut in China in late trade boosted revival in global risk sentiment. The home currency stepped up to 54.94 against the USD as compared to Wednesday’s close of 55.36. Earlier during the day it hit a high of 54.92, its strongest level since May 28.

Indian Rupee Intraday Outlook:

The Indian Rupee is expected to open with moderate losses on Friday as weakness in the Asian stocks after Bernanke comments appended by the drop in the EURUSD would impute a bearish sentiment while trading in the local currency.

The  resistance  at  55.25  (at  23.6% retracement) is witnessed following a breach would push it towards 55.40 and 55.72 levels. Support at 55.02 would be well kept; however if global markets would once again resume their risk appetite trends then lower end of the bullish channel would be tested in at 54.75.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 7th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

 India’s benchmark indices rose 2.7% on Wed, posting their biggest daily percentage gain since early January 2012 that was boosted by hopes of a rate cut by the RBI. Expectations that the ECB will announce more stimulus measures to resolve Euro Zone’s financial problems also contributed to the gains in global markets.

Market has moved upp in the expectation of policy actions both at India and International levels. We anticipate market may test resistance at around 5050-5075 and will need actual policy actions from various governments to cross this level.
Market  sentiments  were  positive on  the announcement from the European Central Bank issuing a schedule for an additional long term refinancing operation (LTRO) as insurance against further flight of banks accounts in Europe. Rising hope of policy rate cut by RBI, expected positive outcome from upcoming realty and construction sector also moved on the back of cuts in rates from the RBI.

Nifty has breached the resistance of 4965 levels, where decisively it portrays a bullish pattern. Only a further trigger should bee provided from various governments in order for a clean upside rally in the equity markets. Index is likely to cross 5,000 mark to test levels at 5,060 followed by 5,120 levels. As positions on net buyers have increased the support of 4960 should be labeled as an opportunity to go long, a break of which 4938 should be held as intraday support. Nevertheless the breach of the same should negate the bullish sentiments across the market.

View On Indian Rupee

USD/INR_07.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee advanced for the third straight session against the Greenback led by improving risk appetite amidst increasing hopes of stimulus from larger economies. Gains in the domestic stock markets too aided the strength in the local currency which has been able to stay well above the record low of 56.52 hit on last Thursday.

Yesterday, the partially convertible Rupee ended at 55.36 to the USD after trading in a range between 55.61 on the upside to 55.15 on the downside and ended the day at 55.35.
The Indian Rupee is expected to trade positively today, tracking the strong gains in the Asian stocks and the uptick in the Euro which pushing the Dollar index lower. Nevertheless a rate cut from RBI should actually pave for depreciation in Indian Rupee; however as equity markets rally’s across the board the depreciation would be negated by boosting the strength in the Indian Rupee.

As London session begins we expect a further upside in the Indian rupee, where the USDINR would be poised to test the lower end of the bull trend channel at 54.80 levels and only a breach and close below it should provide leeway for 54.35 levels (horizontal line support coupled with June1st low). On the resistance front, yesterday’s high of 55.61 should negate the downside in the pair and should be considered as intraday upper resistance.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 1st June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_1.6.2012_xDirect India

The Indian markets dipped and closed in a dismal state considering poor reports from 1st quarter GDP numbers of FY13,, coupled with persistent weakness in the global markets has indeed kept the pressure on the risk appetite among investors to initiate their buying .
The losses were led mainly from the Auto ancillary, Banking,, Capital Goods and metal Stocks. The Index opened up itself on the gap
down, as negativity started looming among the local traders on the back of bloating fears of Greece’s exit from Euro Zone. Nevertheless the  bear market just happened to par its losses but only to a certain extent, as inflation numbers reported from the Euro Zone came in better than expected; however more than a catalyst run we anticipate a certain pullback was witnessed due to continuous selling being made on the Indian equity market.
For today, the market does have a potential to go  down  even  further,  considering  the persistent depreciation in the Indian Rupee
that still chokes on the investors; nevertheless with US employment data to be reported some sort of consolidation could be ascertained considering the global markets would now strategize based on the catalyst reported today.

Nifty bounced from the support levels of 4870 and closed above 4900 levels at 4924. Interim resistance is witnessed at 4970-4985 levels, where a fresh bout of selling could be expected however, if the rally persists, which may prompt by bringing new buyers where one can expect levels to test 5047 and 5085 levels.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_1.6.2012_xDirect India

The US markets closed in flat; however considering the US Dollar’s persistent strength would push INR higher; however we anticipate a certain amount of pullback could be expected in the US Dollar that should preserve the pair to once again record a new all-time high.
Globally, Euro has extended its losses to mark its fresh lows in 2012 and dropped near the July 2010 lows on sustained weakness from the Spanish and Greek financial and political system. The EURUSD slipped in late trade yesterday to close more than 1% lower at 1.2365 levels, against the USD while it fell more than 1.6% against the Yen to finish at  97.70. Markets are concerned regarding the Spain’s struggle to rescue its troubled banks while additional pressure emerged after Italy sold less than its maximum target at a debt auction.

Intraday Outlook:
The Indian Rupee is expected to continue its pullback from the high of 56.50, to test its supports at 55.58 (23.60% retracement from low of 52.68 to recent high of 56.50).. Resistance at intraday high of 56.27 would be maintained and only a break should push it higher towards 56.68 (Fibonacci expansions)

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 30th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_30.5.2012-xDirect India

The initial trading on the Indian markets that opened in thee positive note, nevertheless steamed out its positive up move, as the
benchmark index closed in flat in yesterday’s session. The strength in the US Dollar persisted, where every dips in the same is turning out to be an opportunity for the traders to buy on it. Moreover the month end buying on the US Dollar from the importers has actually led further depreciation in the Indian Rupee that has choked on the positive move in the Indian markets.
The back-to-back blows on risk aversion were provided on the back of subdued US Consumer Confidence (May) that slid to 64.9 from its expectations of 70.0 moreover with fresh downgrade on Spanish Banks; the risk appetite had to dissolve among bull-traders itself.
For today the markets may remain under pressure,  however if  certain amount  of pullback on the US Dollar is witnessed then the negative verse of Nifty could be gripped eminently.

Nifty closed below the crucial 5000 mark closing marginally below the 4,990 mark. However the support is maintained at 4920 levels for the intraday and a break should enable the price action to test 4875 levels.
Resistance is maintained at 4960-4975 levels and only a close above the 5000 mark should trigger a bull rally.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_30.5.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee fell on Tuesday, breaking a three day winning streak, as stronger Dollar in the international markets coupled with Dollar demand from oil firms to meet their month end import commitments inflicted trading sentiment locally. The downtick in the Indian Stock markets from day’s high too weighed the trading momentum heavily.
Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR: The home currency is expected to trade weak today imputed by the weakness in the Euro. EURUSD trading at two year low is also putting pressure on almost all Asian markets currencies in the early morning on Wednesday. Volatility is expected to be high specifically in the afternoon trade as markets will look for fresh cues from the European markets.
A certain downside could be expected considering  the data’ss reported yesterday would be priced in; moreover some amount of profit booking could be witnessed, as the gap has been filled.
Resistance at 56.30 followed by 56.38 would be watched.
Support at 55.90 would be well kept however if we see a breach then intraday low of 55.65 would be tested.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 29th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_29th May_xDirectIndia

The Indian markets settled on a higher note yesterday, as global markets nevertheless gave in favorable cues that aided Nifty to break
above the pivotal 4,950 mark. Even though the afternoon session there some profit booking witnessed on the counter, positive movement on the European market instilled that the Indian markets remain in the positive side. Among Industrial Sectors Banking topped the performance that prompted buying in the market, where the Benchmark SENSEX added 199 points closing the day at 16416.84, meanwhile Nifty too closing above 65 points closing in at 4985.65 points.

The resistance at 4957 has been breached, where decisively has portrayed a bullish signal in the same. The resistance at 5032 followed by 5078 could be tested in coming sessions; nevertheless for today the positive moves could be a bit subdued marking the movements flat in the same.

Supports remain at levels around 4965-4940, if holds strongly then we anticipate another bout of buying may be witnessed to close above 5000 mark

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_29th May_xDirectIndia

The correction in the US Dollar seemed to have come in a good time, boosting the strength on the Rupee that pulled away from its all-time low of 56.38.
The selling on the US Dollar also came on the back of renewed appetite among traders overall that started the week with pulling away from the oversell region; however we still anticipate the trends are still uncertain and therefore the trading and movement for the week would remain flat, as media-favorite Non   Farm   Payrolls   and  US employment numbers would be in store for a trend to be showcased for the near future.

 

Intra-day Outlook

Spot USDINR:
Despite a small showdown of INR appreciation has been witnessed for the past 3 session, we still keep our bias towards upside for the pair, as the support of 54.90 would be held strongly in the spot market. The supports on the interim are seen towards 55.53 (23.60% retracement from the low of 52.668 May 8th to the recent high of 56.379 on May 24th) followed by 55.05 and then 54.90 (both resistance turned support). Today the movement would be quite as traders decide on the catalyst to decide on its next trade strategies.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report, 23rd May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis-23.5.12_xDirectIndia

Indian markets settled on a lower note as rupee tumbled to an all time low amid fears of slowing economic growth. The market opened positive tracking the US markets which closed in the green yesterday with Dow Jones up more than 1%  on  Monday.  The  rupee nevertheless recovered slightly in the morning at 54.6025 after breaching the 55 mark in yesterday’s session. The upside on the Indian Rupee should be now matched with the US Dollar strength that rose up to 16-month high. The 100 points fall in the Nifty is now going to take its toll further, as importers demand for US Dollar increases as month-end nears. Unless the government does not take necessary stance to
cut down on its subsidy burden there will be demand on the US Dollar considering its strength on the board. For today markets are to remain under pressure and thus may trade on sideways to bearish mode for today.

Nifty has its immediate support at 4804, a breach of which would test levels around 4765 (Low of May 18th, 2012). Resistance should be maintained 4840 and then 4885 and only a close above levels of 4885 should be considered as a meaningful correction in the indice.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR-23.5.12_xDirectIndia

The Indian Rupee opened on a positive note yesterday trading near the 54.65 level (against the US Dollar after the central bank introduced measures preventing banks from taking large positions in currency exchanges. Though the
optimism was short lived, it tumbled marking another day of record –low levels closing at 55.39 against the US Dollar. The home currency fell to touch an intra-day low at 55.47 as traders sold the INR owing to reeling growth problems in the domestic economy coupled with rise in the Dollar index.

Intra-day Outlook

Spot USDINR: In the domestic space, the Indian Rupee is expected trade in a narrow range post the persistent losses in past few trading session, with bias still on the weaker side. Volatility is seen continuing on the higher side wherein gains may come only if some concrete steps are taken by the RBI or the Indian government

A certain downside could be witnessed in the pair, where its initial support at 54.60, is well kept; the pair now holds its upside resistance of its bullish trend channel dated from March 8th high of 50.29 at 55.82 hence a breach should form it towards 56.25 and then 56.68 (Fibonacci extensions). Support of 54.60 is not held then wee may see a correction towards 53.95 levels in today’ss session.

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xDirect India

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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 28th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after sideway opening at 4774 tested the higher level of 4804 where the 20 DMA resistance was seen at 4815 and on lower side after testing the lower level of 4725 closing was seen around the level of 4756. Today as the Asian market is trading flat to -ve nifty is expected to open around 4740 and will take support 10 DMA at 4702 and if trading is seen below 4702 will bring to lower level of 4640 and 4550 in near term. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4700 will open the door for 4660 to 4600 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4775. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a- b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic has just nearing the overbought zone and if the resistance is taken at 4800 will turn -ve and will move back to lower zone.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday closing was seen positive just above the resistance level of 53 per$ at the level of 53.08 and as expected is moving upside where we expect it to test the level of 53.5 to 53.8 in near term. Today opening was seen sideway around 53.05 per$ where some range bound move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 52.9 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 53.4 per$ where till the time support of 52.8 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.05 per$ and will test 53.2 and above 53.2 will move to 53.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will rise side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

Report By

xDirect India

Rupee Short Term Outlook- 15th November, 2011

Rupee:
Support: 47.40 – 49 – 50
Pivot: 50.60
Resistance: 51.60 – 52.20 – 53.80

Rupee: A Flag (Bullish) follows a steep or nearly vertical rise in price, and consists of two parallel trend lines that form a rectangular flag shape. The Flag can be horizontal (as though the wind is blowing it), however it often has a slight downtrend. The vertical uptrend, that precedes a Flag, may occur because of buyers' reactions  to a favorable company earnings announcement, or a new product launch. The sharp price increase is  sometimes referred to as the "flagpole" or "mast". Flags are very similar to Pennants. However, with a Flag, the  price trend lines tend to run parallel, whereas with a Pennant, the price trend lines tend to converge. A bullish  signal occurs when the price rebounds beyond the upper trend line of the Flag formation, and continues the  original upward price movement. This is considered a pattern confirmation.    
 

Looking at the chart of Rupee has started its rally from 44.80Per$ and after testing the higher level of 50.5 per$ it has been in the consolidation phase where on lower side it was taking support at 48.98 and 48.86 per$ just below 49 per$ and reversal in prices were seen from lower level. On higher side it was facing  resistance at 50.5 per$ to 50.6 per$ and selling was seen from higher level. Recently it’s showing sign of give  positive Breakout above 50.65 per$ indicating breakout of the Bull Flag pattern. Pole of the Flag started from  44.8 per$ to 50.5 per$ where the difference comes to 5.7 where if we look at breakout above 50.65 per$ expected  target comes to 56.35 per$ in medium term. On the way up we might look at some resistance at level of 52 per$  and above 52 small resistance can also be seen at 53.5 per$ and 55 per$ where some intervention can be  expected from RBI side which might halt the Rupee for short term.

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xDirect India