Nifty & USD/INR Report- 3rd July, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_03.07.2012_xDirect India

Indian equity markets snapped its winning streak however this could be only due to profit booking on the counter. Moreover domestic fundamentals has a better offering despite the fact global uncertainties loom in with Non Farm Payrolls on the horizon at the end of the week. It is such that the Prime Minister has decided to take over the responsibilities of Finance Ministry as well and therefore could provide necessary means for the reforms to take action.

Meanwhile HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.0 to marking a 4-month high which has increased from54.8 in May, resulting in an expansion in the economy. Markets have opened in the positive but has slipped from its high of5303 levels. We still hold the support levels of 5270 to be pivotal for it to mark as a level which if broken would result in a shortterm bearish bias. On the upside resistance of 5360-5375 still remains as an target level as long as supports of 5270 is held; nevertheless a breach would result into 5210 levels on the downside.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_03.07.2012_xDirect India

The Indian posted third consecutive positive closing on Monday as market optimism led by the host of measures announced in the EU summit last week still drove markets higher. While day’s economic data from different economies came mixed, the relief rally continued in most Asian and European markets also driving decent gains inn the Asian currency space. At the Interbank exchange in Mumbai, the INR finished at 55.43 against Friday’s finish of 55.6050.  Indian stock markets dipped marginally on Monday, snapping four days of gains mainly due to profit booking in the stable FMCG sector. India’s benchmark, BSE Sensex 30 fell 0.2% to 17,398.99 points whereas broader NSE Nifty 50 fell 0.01% to 5,278.60 points.
 Indian Rupee is expected to continue trade with a positive bias tracking the moderate bullishness in the Euro and gains in most emerging markets. However this week most of the major economic data is only expected in the US session and therefore some sort of short term (intraday) momentum could be expected.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 21st June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_21.06.2012_xDirect India

The choppy but somewhat positive movements in yesterday’s global market have indeed given Indian equity markets the required boost. Nevertheless the swings on both ends were provided by the fundamental trigger given by Bank of England that apparently chose to boost the stimulus regime in the economy which indeed is required for to boost the banking sector in the region. However the bets on QE kept on rising till the end of Indian markets that managed to close in the positive. The positive terrain was led by the sectors in Metals, Capital Goods, healthcare and Automotives.

Today however as the QE bets faded some amount of pressure could be eased for the markets to look forward to the negative side of the global economic scenario. Where as they have factored on the QE it is now to look forward to the fundamental triggers from the Euro Zone end, while today market has opened slightly on the flat note further swings would be provided by the reaction in the European markets.

The immediate support on Nifty comes in at 5080 levels (50% retracement) and only a breach of this would threaten in another bout of selling in the counter, where the support levels would be followed in by 5043 (falling trend line). Resistance comes in at 5140 levels and if the levels close in anywhere around or over it then we would change our bias to positive on the same, where the price action played in within the confines of this levels then it would be range -bound play.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_21.06.2012_xDirect Ind

The Indian Rupee closed in the negative as despite the Indian equities managing to close in the positive did not provide the necessary boost to Indian Rupee that closed lower against the US Dollar.
Amongst other major news in the domestic markets, rating agency Fitch revised the outlook of a no. of major Indian banks including SBI, PNB, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, IDBI Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, EXIM Bank of India among others.

In the global space, the major US Federal Reserve meeting ended yesterday wherein the Central bank kept its interest rates on hold and extend its so called Bond buying program named Operation Twist towards the end of this year. The Fed said it will prolong the program and expects to sell $267 Billion of shorter-term securities and buying the same amount of longer- term debt in a bid to cut borrowing costs and spur thee economy. Both the moves were widely anticipated by thee markets and couldn’t spur any kind of positivism.

Today technically the Spot USD/INR is at a standpoint of either breaking the resistance of 56.42 therefore marking a new highh towards 57.00 levels, or holding those levels that would be only be possible for a string of positive data’s to tests its intraday low of 56.10 and even though this level would be considered for initiating a buy we would recommend to ponder on the European & US equity markets that would break the levels of 56.10 to test lower levels of 55.80 to 55.70.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 15th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_15.06.2012_xDirect India

Indian markets dropped over 1% on Thursday on concern the higher than expected inflation will reduce possibility of aggressive monetary easing by the RBI on June 18. The WPI inflation for the month of May rose to 7.55% as against the previous month`s figure of 7.23% and previous year`s corresponding month`s figure of 9.56%. Moreover the March inflation was revised upwards from 6.89% provisional to 7.69%. Weak European markets further intensified the selling pressure. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex declined 202.63 points or 1.20% at 16,677.88 with 26 components posting drop. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty went down by 66.70 points or 1.30% at 5,054.75 with 44 components posting drop. Market is expected to open on positive note and likely to remain range bound ahead of Greece election on Sunday. More Americans applied for jobless benefits and consumer prices dropped by the most in three years, giving the Federa Reserve room to spur an economy that’s generating little growth or inflation. Claims for unemployment insurance payments unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9, Laborr Department figures showed in Washington.

Outlook for today Nifty has an immediate resistance at 5,090-5,100 levels; on a decisive close above expect rise to 5,140 & 5,180 levels. However with early Asian markets in the positive we expect the markets too would perform in a likewise manner moreover with INR appreciating would give out further confidence to the Indian equity overall. We therefore would like to initiate a buy at 5082 (former resistance and now support) for the target of 5150 levels. Stop Loss to be placed at 5045 (previous session low).

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_ 15.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian rupee gains v/s the US dollar on Friday on the back of firm move in the domestic share market. On Friday, the rupee suffered from falls in global risk assets on the back of the lack of clarity on potential U.S. monetary stimulus, worries China will post weak data on Saturday, and concerns about Spanish banking woes.
Today, the sentiment is positive in the global market with stock markets, the euro and oil rallied after less bad Chinese data then expected along with a Spain’s bank bailout. The market welcomed the weekend news that Spain secured a EUR100 billion ($125 billion) loan to bolster its banking system, which makes the country the fourth and largest Euro Zone economy to be rescued by its euro-zone partners.
On Saturday, China released economic data which showed a weakening economy, but was not as bad as some expected. The PBoC made a surprise cut to interest rates ahead of the data, which was taken as a signal by the market that May’s figures were going to be very bad. As per data, China’s trade surplus was $18.7bn in May, a touch bigger than its $18.4bn surplus in April. Industrial production nudged up to a 9.6 per cent rise from 9.3 per cent in April. Inflation receded to 3.0 per cent year-on-year in May, the lowest in two years and down from 3.4 per cent in April. Today, the Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.1% and Korea’s Kospi was 1.7% higher. Singapore’s Strait Times Index rose 1.5% and the China Shanghai Composite was up 0.3%.

Immediate support is at 55.30 and 55.10 levels. Intraday resistance is at 55.43 and then at 55.55 levels. Any pullback towards the resistance is ideal for selling.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 7th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

 India’s benchmark indices rose 2.7% on Wed, posting their biggest daily percentage gain since early January 2012 that was boosted by hopes of a rate cut by the RBI. Expectations that the ECB will announce more stimulus measures to resolve Euro Zone’s financial problems also contributed to the gains in global markets.

Market has moved upp in the expectation of policy actions both at India and International levels. We anticipate market may test resistance at around 5050-5075 and will need actual policy actions from various governments to cross this level.
Market  sentiments  were  positive on  the announcement from the European Central Bank issuing a schedule for an additional long term refinancing operation (LTRO) as insurance against further flight of banks accounts in Europe. Rising hope of policy rate cut by RBI, expected positive outcome from upcoming realty and construction sector also moved on the back of cuts in rates from the RBI.

Nifty has breached the resistance of 4965 levels, where decisively it portrays a bullish pattern. Only a further trigger should bee provided from various governments in order for a clean upside rally in the equity markets. Index is likely to cross 5,000 mark to test levels at 5,060 followed by 5,120 levels. As positions on net buyers have increased the support of 4960 should be labeled as an opportunity to go long, a break of which 4938 should be held as intraday support. Nevertheless the breach of the same should negate the bullish sentiments across the market.

View On Indian Rupee

USD/INR_07.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee advanced for the third straight session against the Greenback led by improving risk appetite amidst increasing hopes of stimulus from larger economies. Gains in the domestic stock markets too aided the strength in the local currency which has been able to stay well above the record low of 56.52 hit on last Thursday.

Yesterday, the partially convertible Rupee ended at 55.36 to the USD after trading in a range between 55.61 on the upside to 55.15 on the downside and ended the day at 55.35.
The Indian Rupee is expected to trade positively today, tracking the strong gains in the Asian stocks and the uptick in the Euro which pushing the Dollar index lower. Nevertheless a rate cut from RBI should actually pave for depreciation in Indian Rupee; however as equity markets rally’s across the board the depreciation would be negated by boosting the strength in the Indian Rupee.

As London session begins we expect a further upside in the Indian rupee, where the USDINR would be poised to test the lower end of the bull trend channel at 54.80 levels and only a breach and close below it should provide leeway for 54.35 levels (horizontal line support coupled with June1st low). On the resistance front, yesterday’s high of 55.61 should negate the downside in the pair and should be considered as intraday upper resistance.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 6th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_06.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian equity markets ended flat however the bias on the same remained on the positive bias as the speculation of quantitative easing made spillovers onto the Asian markets. The robust data on ISM figures even from the US actually made a drastic recovery towards the upside which gave enough boost to the equity markets. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex gained 32.24 points or 0.20% at 16,020.64 with 188 components registering rise. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 15.15 points or 0.31% at 4,863.30 with 30 components posting rise.
The Indian markets are likely to remain choppy as European concerns bloats up with concerns of Greece still looming in and where Moody’s downgrading German banks ahead of the EU Summit is also weighing more on the bearish front.
Nevertheless, the rally could be seen another opportunity to go on the sell-side, as there’s absence of any sort of triggers for further flow into the market. Before the RBI meet the rally towards   4800-4900 could be  a  good opportunity for another round of selling bout.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Report_06.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee once again witnessed a volatile trading session with the currency opening in the positive territory though couldn’t managed to hold on to its early gains. The home currency rise in the early part of the trading session was led by speculation the central bank will lower borrowing costs in its forthcoming monetary policy meeting, reducing the rate for the second time in 2012 to support economic growth. At the end of the day,, the INR finished at 55.64 at the spot market against Monday’s close of 55.66. The Indian stock markets too followed a similar trend wherein they opened with healthy gains tracking, however gave away most of the gains to finish modestly in the green. The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty both were higher by around 0.2% at close.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 1st June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_1.6.2012_xDirect India

The Indian markets dipped and closed in a dismal state considering poor reports from 1st quarter GDP numbers of FY13,, coupled with persistent weakness in the global markets has indeed kept the pressure on the risk appetite among investors to initiate their buying .
The losses were led mainly from the Auto ancillary, Banking,, Capital Goods and metal Stocks. The Index opened up itself on the gap
down, as negativity started looming among the local traders on the back of bloating fears of Greece’s exit from Euro Zone. Nevertheless the  bear market just happened to par its losses but only to a certain extent, as inflation numbers reported from the Euro Zone came in better than expected; however more than a catalyst run we anticipate a certain pullback was witnessed due to continuous selling being made on the Indian equity market.
For today, the market does have a potential to go  down  even  further,  considering  the persistent depreciation in the Indian Rupee
that still chokes on the investors; nevertheless with US employment data to be reported some sort of consolidation could be ascertained considering the global markets would now strategize based on the catalyst reported today.

Nifty bounced from the support levels of 4870 and closed above 4900 levels at 4924. Interim resistance is witnessed at 4970-4985 levels, where a fresh bout of selling could be expected however, if the rally persists, which may prompt by bringing new buyers where one can expect levels to test 5047 and 5085 levels.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_1.6.2012_xDirect India

The US markets closed in flat; however considering the US Dollar’s persistent strength would push INR higher; however we anticipate a certain amount of pullback could be expected in the US Dollar that should preserve the pair to once again record a new all-time high.
Globally, Euro has extended its losses to mark its fresh lows in 2012 and dropped near the July 2010 lows on sustained weakness from the Spanish and Greek financial and political system. The EURUSD slipped in late trade yesterday to close more than 1% lower at 1.2365 levels, against the USD while it fell more than 1.6% against the Yen to finish at  97.70. Markets are concerned regarding the Spain’s struggle to rescue its troubled banks while additional pressure emerged after Italy sold less than its maximum target at a debt auction.

Intraday Outlook:
The Indian Rupee is expected to continue its pullback from the high of 56.50, to test its supports at 55.58 (23.60% retracement from low of 52.68 to recent high of 56.50).. Resistance at intraday high of 56.27 would be maintained and only a break should push it higher towards 56.68 (Fibonacci expansions)

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 30th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_30.5.2012-xDirect India

The initial trading on the Indian markets that opened in thee positive note, nevertheless steamed out its positive up move, as the
benchmark index closed in flat in yesterday’s session. The strength in the US Dollar persisted, where every dips in the same is turning out to be an opportunity for the traders to buy on it. Moreover the month end buying on the US Dollar from the importers has actually led further depreciation in the Indian Rupee that has choked on the positive move in the Indian markets.
The back-to-back blows on risk aversion were provided on the back of subdued US Consumer Confidence (May) that slid to 64.9 from its expectations of 70.0 moreover with fresh downgrade on Spanish Banks; the risk appetite had to dissolve among bull-traders itself.
For today the markets may remain under pressure,  however if  certain amount  of pullback on the US Dollar is witnessed then the negative verse of Nifty could be gripped eminently.

Nifty closed below the crucial 5000 mark closing marginally below the 4,990 mark. However the support is maintained at 4920 levels for the intraday and a break should enable the price action to test 4875 levels.
Resistance is maintained at 4960-4975 levels and only a close above the 5000 mark should trigger a bull rally.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_30.5.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee fell on Tuesday, breaking a three day winning streak, as stronger Dollar in the international markets coupled with Dollar demand from oil firms to meet their month end import commitments inflicted trading sentiment locally. The downtick in the Indian Stock markets from day’s high too weighed the trading momentum heavily.
Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR: The home currency is expected to trade weak today imputed by the weakness in the Euro. EURUSD trading at two year low is also putting pressure on almost all Asian markets currencies in the early morning on Wednesday. Volatility is expected to be high specifically in the afternoon trade as markets will look for fresh cues from the European markets.
A certain downside could be expected considering  the data’ss reported yesterday would be priced in; moreover some amount of profit booking could be witnessed, as the gap has been filled.
Resistance at 56.30 followed by 56.38 would be watched.
Support at 55.90 would be well kept however if we see a breach then intraday low of 55.65 would be tested.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 29th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_29th May_xDirectIndia

The Indian markets settled on a higher note yesterday, as global markets nevertheless gave in favorable cues that aided Nifty to break
above the pivotal 4,950 mark. Even though the afternoon session there some profit booking witnessed on the counter, positive movement on the European market instilled that the Indian markets remain in the positive side. Among Industrial Sectors Banking topped the performance that prompted buying in the market, where the Benchmark SENSEX added 199 points closing the day at 16416.84, meanwhile Nifty too closing above 65 points closing in at 4985.65 points.

The resistance at 4957 has been breached, where decisively has portrayed a bullish signal in the same. The resistance at 5032 followed by 5078 could be tested in coming sessions; nevertheless for today the positive moves could be a bit subdued marking the movements flat in the same.

Supports remain at levels around 4965-4940, if holds strongly then we anticipate another bout of buying may be witnessed to close above 5000 mark

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_29th May_xDirectIndia

The correction in the US Dollar seemed to have come in a good time, boosting the strength on the Rupee that pulled away from its all-time low of 56.38.
The selling on the US Dollar also came on the back of renewed appetite among traders overall that started the week with pulling away from the oversell region; however we still anticipate the trends are still uncertain and therefore the trading and movement for the week would remain flat, as media-favorite Non   Farm   Payrolls   and  US employment numbers would be in store for a trend to be showcased for the near future.

 

Intra-day Outlook

Spot USDINR:
Despite a small showdown of INR appreciation has been witnessed for the past 3 session, we still keep our bias towards upside for the pair, as the support of 54.90 would be held strongly in the spot market. The supports on the interim are seen towards 55.53 (23.60% retracement from the low of 52.668 May 8th to the recent high of 56.379 on May 24th) followed by 55.05 and then 54.90 (both resistance turned support). Today the movement would be quite as traders decide on the catalyst to decide on its next trade strategies.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 24th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

nifty_24.5.2012_xDirect India

A yet another day of liquidation in equity markets, on basis of risk aversion has taken its toll in the SENSEX that ended below 16,000 marking its lowest level since January 7th, 2012. The uncertainty on the economy has indeed choked investors, which was backed by
the Rupee depreciation. USD/INR in spot has marked its highest level ever at 56.30 amid weak global trends, where SENSEX after marking a 157 drop further added about 80 points fall in the same session, as weakness in thee net importing economy would indeed makes consumption  more expensive.
For today, perhaps some sort of respite could be provided; however we should be watchful during the European session, wherein after a freefall in these markets that recorded a 2% fall, was witnessed, due to Greek issue and failure on providing any sort decision on Summit that was held yesterday.
Today, markets could witness some buying however; if risk aversion intensifies the buying on the counter could turn out to be a huge bout of selling.
Nifty finds its immediate support at 4804, where a breach could push it lower towards 4765 (Low of May 18th). Resistance at 4850 would be well kept for today wherein only a daily close above 4940 would be considered as a meaningful correction.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_24.5.2012_xDirectIndia

The Indian Rupee continued its losing streak against the US Dollar and slipped below the psychological 56 mark on Wednesday. It plunged to an Intra-day low of 56.30, hitting a record low for the sixth straight session before finally closing at 56 levels against the USD. The fall in the Rupee persisted despite uninterrupted assurances and interventions in the currency markets by the Reserve Bank of India. Yesterday’s fall was led by demand for the Greenback from importers and banks amid rising risk aversion in the global markets. The has weakened more than 3% in the last three trading session while from its recent highs in Feb this year, the INR is down by over 23%, making its one of the most under-performing currencies amongst the globe.

Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR:
The RSI is its highest level since November 22, 2011 where constant upside has kept market to go short; however if European situation deteriorates then this would be followed by heavy selling in Euro and high yielding assets, causing US Dollar to strengthen.
For the trend we still keep our bias towards upside wherein after achieving our 1st target off 56.25. The objective remains to 56.68 for now (Both Fibonacci extensions). Supports are seen towards 55.95 and then 55.82 for today and only a daily close below 55.45 should be considered as a correction from its consistent upside.

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“Deal With Your Psychology Before Dealing With Your Money”

All About Trading Psychology

The Forex Market has exploded onto the scene & is the HOT financial market. People are trading in millions & making valuable profits too. This often leads us to invest & earn some decent profit for ourselves too; through Forex Trading. Thus, we sign up with a Forex Trader and have tried & used the DEMO Accounts being successful considerably.

Now, is The Time for Live Accounts?

Often even after going through a definite period of time dealing with Demo account we are unsure about the LIVE Account. The only reason for this unsurely behavior is the involvement of REAL MONEY. This in turn plays a great deal with our Psychology.

Trading Psychology:

A very less-spoken secret about trading is its PSYCHOLOGY which forms the most important element of any investment process. Trading Psychology is nothing but the state of mind of the trader while trading & its capability to control his empowering emotions.

 The only sure-shot way to successful trading is taking control of your Emotions.

While trading or at the beginning; traders are often gripped by common emotions of FEAR (Apprehensions) OR GREED (Sureness) depending how the initial trades start off.

Invariably, at all times of trading one should keep in mind that Losses are a common aspect of this trade. For successful trading, one not only needs to have sound technical knowledge & resources but should also have a broad spectrum about the trading business. A calm frame of mind often leads to correct decisions which in turn garner desirable profits.

There are types of Psychological myths & traps that if conquered upon; along with fundamental & technical analysis leads to expertise in trading.

Common Psychological MYTHS in the trading world:

1)     Holy Grail Myth: There is hardly any chance or luck in Forex trading as it is in gambling or placing bets. Simply because forex trading is NOT gambling. The trends are based upon the technical &fundamental factors & thus a strong trading plan will reap the boons.

2)     The Monday Effect-A very common myth, many traders believe that Mondays will follow the prevailing trend from the previous Friday.  Thus if the market was up on Friday it will prevail all weekend, come Monday it will rise again. Are we having Monday Blues? Probably. For Such trends have less to do with days & more with activity in the market.

3)     Expert Myth: It always plays a great support for our psychology to have an expert by our side during crucial decision-making times specially while involving Money! But, we must not forget even Experts are human beings & prone to mistakes. Its best, to understand the technicalities & well study the market before investing thus; letting the Expert be Ex-of your decisions.

4)     RUMOR DOESN’T HAVE IT:  It is a pre-requisite to keep a tab on world news & events that often leads to changes in the markets. But moreover, it is important to differentiate between the real news & the rumors; which are often planted by financial institutions in order to move the position of market.

Having done with the common myths which lead to a great disturbance of the Psychology, lets concentrate on the actual demons-“The Traps” which many often traders do fall prey to.

1)     Fear/ Apprehension/Despair: Losses usually lead to fright. This in turn can lead to inactivity in trading. The best way to overcome this is to use the “STOP-LOSS” orders. You cannot be afraid of a loss you assigned on your own.

2)     Greed/Super-Sureness: If or not it usually arises from making small profits, the trader starts anticipating more profits & thus invests higher amounts of lots, neglecting the initial investment strategy formed. Investor should focus on “Stop-Loss” & thus ensuring his capital before making or losing profits.

REMEMBER TO DEAL WITH TRADING PSYCHOLOGY

Ø      Trading is speculation which is all about taking risks in order to earn profits!

Ø      Assess your reason on market- Boredom/ passion/ way of life/hobby?

Ø      Invest only as much as you are prepared to Lose.

Ø      Do a thorough research of the Forex Trader you’ll be dealing with; in terms of Platforms, Spreads & Sales Support.

Ø      Market prices are NOT biased on your emotions & expectations. Thereby, stick by your TRADING STRATEGY.

Ø      Be Objective; Let your emotions take a backseat.

Ø       Market always gives occasions, so the one you lost won’t be the last one.

Ø      Trend is Your Friend – try following the Trend, it always works.

Ø      CONTROL is the synonym for Trading. Take control of Yourself, Your Emotions & eventually Your Forex Position.

Ø      Have a positive approach towards life, calm mind works best while taking trading decisions.

Thus, for a successful trader, it is always better to 

Deal with your Psychology Before Dealing with your Money!!!