Nifty & USD/INR Report- 12th July, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis By xDirect India

Indian equities extended intraday losses and is near day’s low as traders continued to book profits after a sharp up-move in last session and weak global cues. Brokers said reports of less than average monsoon rains this season might hamper efforts to boost economy and hurt company earnings this quarter impacted the market sentiment. The IMD said that monsoon, the life- line of Indian agriculture, has covered the entire country but rains are still deficient by 23%. Indian markets ended today`s session on a lower note on the back of weak global cues and heavy selling witnessed in auto, FMCG, realty and metal stocks.

The gap down open in the market has definitely enabled the sellers to prompt their activities considering we had yet other depressing FOMC minutes where no sign of QE was provided. This shifted the mindset of traders which now in turn are in selling activities. The immediate resistance comes in at 5290 levels followed by 5325 levels on the rising trend line (former support and now resistance). Expect selling pressure to remain at higher levels unless we have a fundamental trigger which makes the price action to close above 5320 levels, would negate the bearish bias.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis By xDirect India

The Indian Rupee extended losses on Monday falling to its lowest levels in almost a week led by weak cues across the Asian and European stocks markets and post the acute drop in the Euro on Friday which slipped to its two year lows below the 1.2300 level. Broad weakness in the domestic stock markets also put pressure on the local currency which finished with a loss of a percentage yesterday. It seems even though a slight positive reaction in the European currencies did not aid any boost to risk appetite neither towards appreciation to INR value. We therefore require a more of a fundamental trigger that would enable an upside in the same.

The USDINR pair seems to hold its daily Fibonacci support at 55.74 and if it continues to do so then we are looking at 55.92, 56.08 and then 56.14. However a break of intraday low which is also the support (Fibonacci) then 55.65 followed by 55.50 would be tested. We keep our bias on the upside.


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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 3rd July, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_03.07.2012_xDirect India

Indian equity markets snapped its winning streak however this could be only due to profit booking on the counter. Moreover domestic fundamentals has a better offering despite the fact global uncertainties loom in with Non Farm Payrolls on the horizon at the end of the week. It is such that the Prime Minister has decided to take over the responsibilities of Finance Ministry as well and therefore could provide necessary means for the reforms to take action.

Meanwhile HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.0 to marking a 4-month high which has increased from54.8 in May, resulting in an expansion in the economy. Markets have opened in the positive but has slipped from its high of5303 levels. We still hold the support levels of 5270 to be pivotal for it to mark as a level which if broken would result in a shortterm bearish bias. On the upside resistance of 5360-5375 still remains as an target level as long as supports of 5270 is held; nevertheless a breach would result into 5210 levels on the downside.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_03.07.2012_xDirect India

The Indian posted third consecutive positive closing on Monday as market optimism led by the host of measures announced in the EU summit last week still drove markets higher. While day’s economic data from different economies came mixed, the relief rally continued in most Asian and European markets also driving decent gains inn the Asian currency space. At the Interbank exchange in Mumbai, the INR finished at 55.43 against Friday’s finish of 55.6050.  Indian stock markets dipped marginally on Monday, snapping four days of gains mainly due to profit booking in the stable FMCG sector. India’s benchmark, BSE Sensex 30 fell 0.2% to 17,398.99 points whereas broader NSE Nifty 50 fell 0.01% to 5,278.60 points.
 Indian Rupee is expected to continue trade with a positive bias tracking the moderate bullishness in the Euro and gains in most emerging markets. However this week most of the major economic data is only expected in the US session and therefore some sort of short term (intraday) momentum could be expected.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 26th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

xDirect India's Nifty Analysis_26.06.2012

Benchmark indices ended weak erasing early gains, as investors were not impressed by the RBI’s measures to stem the rupee’s fall and the government did not announce any reforms as pledged last week. RBI enhanced the FII limit in G-Secs to $20 billion from $15 billion. It also allowed Indian companies in infrastructure to borrow through the ECB route up to $10 bn. The low amount of liquidity would obviously take away volatility and volumes which eventually turned out to be a negative session for the Nifty. Even the global markets were quite sticky with risk aversion combined with overselling kept the price movements range bound with the US Dollar just bouncing on every dips.

With the sudden drop in the market being witnessed yesterday, the government has announced today that it would take necessary steps to stem the Rupee depreciation; nevertheless these comments came in futile as global uncertainty has indeed gripped on the bull traders to resume on their trading with INR still hovering at its all-time low levels. For today we have a light on the counter from Euro Zone and UK, but US Consumer Confidence being the most important. However the Indian markets would trade sideways with supports coming in at interim levels of 5095 levels (Rising trend line). Followed by 5050 (50% retracement) and then 5023 (Falling trend line). Resistance is seen towards 5140, 5178 levels; however considering bearish trend has been commenced we believe Nifty has little chance of building momentum over 5180 levels for the week.

View on Indian Rupee

xDirect India's USD/INR Analysis_26.06.2012

The Indian Rupee gained sharply in yesterday’s trade bolstered by the expectations of big-bang policy measures from the Government of India and the RBI. The Rupee opened sharply higher and continued rising to make a high near the 56.3750 level. Though it weakened from day’s high and ended at 57.01 to the US Dollar after the measures  introduced by the RBI disappointed markets.

The main step announced was to increase in the cap on foreign investment in Indian government debt  to  $20  billion  from  $15  billion.  The government also reduced the minimum period investors need to hold some bonds to three years from five years, making them more attractive to foreign funds.

The Indian Rupee is expected to trade in a tight spot where in, where on the upside the resistance is seen towards 57.42 (Fibonacci extension) followed by 57.65 levels. Supports come in at 56.40 (yesterday session low). There might be some sort of positives seen in the market considering the constant selling but we believe the bear trend would resume considering the ill-liquid FOMC state,, followed by the multiple downgrades. For today however we would want the US Consumer Confidence to give some amount of boost as yesterday’s housing sales marked good numbers, its best in 3 years.

For today the market is expected to be range bound however, where European session may mark some amount of swings in the global market which may give certain movement in the currency pair.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 21st June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_21.06.2012_xDirect India

The choppy but somewhat positive movements in yesterday’s global market have indeed given Indian equity markets the required boost. Nevertheless the swings on both ends were provided by the fundamental trigger given by Bank of England that apparently chose to boost the stimulus regime in the economy which indeed is required for to boost the banking sector in the region. However the bets on QE kept on rising till the end of Indian markets that managed to close in the positive. The positive terrain was led by the sectors in Metals, Capital Goods, healthcare and Automotives.

Today however as the QE bets faded some amount of pressure could be eased for the markets to look forward to the negative side of the global economic scenario. Where as they have factored on the QE it is now to look forward to the fundamental triggers from the Euro Zone end, while today market has opened slightly on the flat note further swings would be provided by the reaction in the European markets.

The immediate support on Nifty comes in at 5080 levels (50% retracement) and only a breach of this would threaten in another bout of selling in the counter, where the support levels would be followed in by 5043 (falling trend line). Resistance comes in at 5140 levels and if the levels close in anywhere around or over it then we would change our bias to positive on the same, where the price action played in within the confines of this levels then it would be range -bound play.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_21.06.2012_xDirect Ind

The Indian Rupee closed in the negative as despite the Indian equities managing to close in the positive did not provide the necessary boost to Indian Rupee that closed lower against the US Dollar.
Amongst other major news in the domestic markets, rating agency Fitch revised the outlook of a no. of major Indian banks including SBI, PNB, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, IDBI Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, EXIM Bank of India among others.

In the global space, the major US Federal Reserve meeting ended yesterday wherein the Central bank kept its interest rates on hold and extend its so called Bond buying program named Operation Twist towards the end of this year. The Fed said it will prolong the program and expects to sell $267 Billion of shorter-term securities and buying the same amount of longer- term debt in a bid to cut borrowing costs and spur thee economy. Both the moves were widely anticipated by thee markets and couldn’t spur any kind of positivism.

Today technically the Spot USD/INR is at a standpoint of either breaking the resistance of 56.42 therefore marking a new highh towards 57.00 levels, or holding those levels that would be only be possible for a string of positive data’s to tests its intraday low of 56.10 and even though this level would be considered for initiating a buy we would recommend to ponder on the European & US equity markets that would break the levels of 56.10 to test lower levels of 55.80 to 55.70.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 19th June. 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_19.06.2012_xDirect India

The ongoing worries of Spain that pushed its yield rates to over 7.25% yesterday is overshadowing the Greek elections that came out to attempt a positive vibe in the global market. However, it was soon faded as borrowings become more expensive in the Euro Zone debt ridden nations. The one domestic fundamental that could have provided the much needed support would have been the RBI monetary policy decision; nevertheless all its rates (including CRR) were kept unchanged as RBI still thinks that inflation would be the more sought out problem rather than growth for the economy. European markets too ended mixed as worries about Spain and Italy dominated investor sentiment. Italy and Spain markets closed with 3% losses, while Germany, France and UK markets ended mixed. With no major data reported yesterday, US markets closed in mixed with Dow Jones slipping 0.20% while S&P 500 and NASDAQ eking out gains of 0.14% and 0.78% respectively.

Nifty closed in the negative by 75 points at 5064 just below its support of 5065;; moreover those alone weren’t the only problems that were to be faced as FITCH lowered India’s sovereign debt rating to negative from stable.

 For today the markets could come under pressure; however it could turn out that trading would be mixed as we turn into FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and the possible reactions to it. Therefore the support levels for intraday lies in 5060 levels (Falling trend line) followed by 5012 levels (horizontal Line support). Only a breach of 5044 levels could trigger another bearish trend for the Nifty to test 4954 levels (61.80% retracement). Resistance at 5082-5090 levels (50% retracement) followed by 5120 levels.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_19.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee slipped to its lowest levels in almost a week on Monday after the domestic central bank kept the benchmark interest rates unchanged, while Fitch downgrade of country’s outlook and late session cues from the European markets also hurting sentiment. The partially convertible Rupee fell to as low as 56.04 to the USD in the latter half taking domestic and global cues while closed at 55.9050 against the US Dollar as compared to Friday’s finish at 55.39.

Weakness in the local shares to contributed to the weakness in the INR. Indian shares dropped more than 1.4% marking their biggest percentage fall since June 1, led by a sell-off in Banking and financial sector after the central bank unexpectedly kept interest rates on hold. The RBI in its monetary policy review cited its continued concerns about inflationary pressures and weakening domestic fundamentals for no change in rates.

The home currency is expected to open lower on Tuesday tracking weakness in the Asian markets and after the EURUSD fell sharply against the day’s high at 1.2750 levels yesterday. Today morning, the common currency is trading with marginal gains which might provide some support to the local unit, though overall trend seems to be weak.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 15th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_15.06.2012_xDirect India

Indian markets dropped over 1% on Thursday on concern the higher than expected inflation will reduce possibility of aggressive monetary easing by the RBI on June 18. The WPI inflation for the month of May rose to 7.55% as against the previous month`s figure of 7.23% and previous year`s corresponding month`s figure of 9.56%. Moreover the March inflation was revised upwards from 6.89% provisional to 7.69%. Weak European markets further intensified the selling pressure. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex declined 202.63 points or 1.20% at 16,677.88 with 26 components posting drop. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty went down by 66.70 points or 1.30% at 5,054.75 with 44 components posting drop. Market is expected to open on positive note and likely to remain range bound ahead of Greece election on Sunday. More Americans applied for jobless benefits and consumer prices dropped by the most in three years, giving the Federa Reserve room to spur an economy that’s generating little growth or inflation. Claims for unemployment insurance payments unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9, Laborr Department figures showed in Washington.

Outlook for today Nifty has an immediate resistance at 5,090-5,100 levels; on a decisive close above expect rise to 5,140 & 5,180 levels. However with early Asian markets in the positive we expect the markets too would perform in a likewise manner moreover with INR appreciating would give out further confidence to the Indian equity overall. We therefore would like to initiate a buy at 5082 (former resistance and now support) for the target of 5150 levels. Stop Loss to be placed at 5045 (previous session low).

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_ 15.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian rupee gains v/s the US dollar on Friday on the back of firm move in the domestic share market. On Friday, the rupee suffered from falls in global risk assets on the back of the lack of clarity on potential U.S. monetary stimulus, worries China will post weak data on Saturday, and concerns about Spanish banking woes.
Today, the sentiment is positive in the global market with stock markets, the euro and oil rallied after less bad Chinese data then expected along with a Spain’s bank bailout. The market welcomed the weekend news that Spain secured a EUR100 billion ($125 billion) loan to bolster its banking system, which makes the country the fourth and largest Euro Zone economy to be rescued by its euro-zone partners.
On Saturday, China released economic data which showed a weakening economy, but was not as bad as some expected. The PBoC made a surprise cut to interest rates ahead of the data, which was taken as a signal by the market that May’s figures were going to be very bad. As per data, China’s trade surplus was $18.7bn in May, a touch bigger than its $18.4bn surplus in April. Industrial production nudged up to a 9.6 per cent rise from 9.3 per cent in April. Inflation receded to 3.0 per cent year-on-year in May, the lowest in two years and down from 3.4 per cent in April. Today, the Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.1% and Korea’s Kospi was 1.7% higher. Singapore’s Strait Times Index rose 1.5% and the China Shanghai Composite was up 0.3%.

Immediate support is at 55.30 and 55.10 levels. Intraday resistance is at 55.43 and then at 55.55 levels. Any pullback towards the resistance is ideal for selling.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 1st June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_1.6.2012_xDirect India

The Indian markets dipped and closed in a dismal state considering poor reports from 1st quarter GDP numbers of FY13,, coupled with persistent weakness in the global markets has indeed kept the pressure on the risk appetite among investors to initiate their buying .
The losses were led mainly from the Auto ancillary, Banking,, Capital Goods and metal Stocks. The Index opened up itself on the gap
down, as negativity started looming among the local traders on the back of bloating fears of Greece’s exit from Euro Zone. Nevertheless the  bear market just happened to par its losses but only to a certain extent, as inflation numbers reported from the Euro Zone came in better than expected; however more than a catalyst run we anticipate a certain pullback was witnessed due to continuous selling being made on the Indian equity market.
For today, the market does have a potential to go  down  even  further,  considering  the persistent depreciation in the Indian Rupee
that still chokes on the investors; nevertheless with US employment data to be reported some sort of consolidation could be ascertained considering the global markets would now strategize based on the catalyst reported today.

Nifty bounced from the support levels of 4870 and closed above 4900 levels at 4924. Interim resistance is witnessed at 4970-4985 levels, where a fresh bout of selling could be expected however, if the rally persists, which may prompt by bringing new buyers where one can expect levels to test 5047 and 5085 levels.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_1.6.2012_xDirect India

The US markets closed in flat; however considering the US Dollar’s persistent strength would push INR higher; however we anticipate a certain amount of pullback could be expected in the US Dollar that should preserve the pair to once again record a new all-time high.
Globally, Euro has extended its losses to mark its fresh lows in 2012 and dropped near the July 2010 lows on sustained weakness from the Spanish and Greek financial and political system. The EURUSD slipped in late trade yesterday to close more than 1% lower at 1.2365 levels, against the USD while it fell more than 1.6% against the Yen to finish at  97.70. Markets are concerned regarding the Spain’s struggle to rescue its troubled banks while additional pressure emerged after Italy sold less than its maximum target at a debt auction.

Intraday Outlook:
The Indian Rupee is expected to continue its pullback from the high of 56.50, to test its supports at 55.58 (23.60% retracement from low of 52.68 to recent high of 56.50).. Resistance at intraday high of 56.27 would be maintained and only a break should push it higher towards 56.68 (Fibonacci expansions)

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 29th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_29th May_xDirectIndia

The Indian markets settled on a higher note yesterday, as global markets nevertheless gave in favorable cues that aided Nifty to break
above the pivotal 4,950 mark. Even though the afternoon session there some profit booking witnessed on the counter, positive movement on the European market instilled that the Indian markets remain in the positive side. Among Industrial Sectors Banking topped the performance that prompted buying in the market, where the Benchmark SENSEX added 199 points closing the day at 16416.84, meanwhile Nifty too closing above 65 points closing in at 4985.65 points.

The resistance at 4957 has been breached, where decisively has portrayed a bullish signal in the same. The resistance at 5032 followed by 5078 could be tested in coming sessions; nevertheless for today the positive moves could be a bit subdued marking the movements flat in the same.

Supports remain at levels around 4965-4940, if holds strongly then we anticipate another bout of buying may be witnessed to close above 5000 mark

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_29th May_xDirectIndia

The correction in the US Dollar seemed to have come in a good time, boosting the strength on the Rupee that pulled away from its all-time low of 56.38.
The selling on the US Dollar also came on the back of renewed appetite among traders overall that started the week with pulling away from the oversell region; however we still anticipate the trends are still uncertain and therefore the trading and movement for the week would remain flat, as media-favorite Non   Farm   Payrolls   and  US employment numbers would be in store for a trend to be showcased for the near future.

 

Intra-day Outlook

Spot USDINR:
Despite a small showdown of INR appreciation has been witnessed for the past 3 session, we still keep our bias towards upside for the pair, as the support of 54.90 would be held strongly in the spot market. The supports on the interim are seen towards 55.53 (23.60% retracement from the low of 52.668 May 8th to the recent high of 56.379 on May 24th) followed by 55.05 and then 54.90 (both resistance turned support). Today the movement would be quite as traders decide on the catalyst to decide on its next trade strategies.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 24th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

nifty_24.5.2012_xDirect India

A yet another day of liquidation in equity markets, on basis of risk aversion has taken its toll in the SENSEX that ended below 16,000 marking its lowest level since January 7th, 2012. The uncertainty on the economy has indeed choked investors, which was backed by
the Rupee depreciation. USD/INR in spot has marked its highest level ever at 56.30 amid weak global trends, where SENSEX after marking a 157 drop further added about 80 points fall in the same session, as weakness in thee net importing economy would indeed makes consumption  more expensive.
For today, perhaps some sort of respite could be provided; however we should be watchful during the European session, wherein after a freefall in these markets that recorded a 2% fall, was witnessed, due to Greek issue and failure on providing any sort decision on Summit that was held yesterday.
Today, markets could witness some buying however; if risk aversion intensifies the buying on the counter could turn out to be a huge bout of selling.
Nifty finds its immediate support at 4804, where a breach could push it lower towards 4765 (Low of May 18th). Resistance at 4850 would be well kept for today wherein only a daily close above 4940 would be considered as a meaningful correction.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_24.5.2012_xDirectIndia

The Indian Rupee continued its losing streak against the US Dollar and slipped below the psychological 56 mark on Wednesday. It plunged to an Intra-day low of 56.30, hitting a record low for the sixth straight session before finally closing at 56 levels against the USD. The fall in the Rupee persisted despite uninterrupted assurances and interventions in the currency markets by the Reserve Bank of India. Yesterday’s fall was led by demand for the Greenback from importers and banks amid rising risk aversion in the global markets. The has weakened more than 3% in the last three trading session while from its recent highs in Feb this year, the INR is down by over 23%, making its one of the most under-performing currencies amongst the globe.

Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR:
The RSI is its highest level since November 22, 2011 where constant upside has kept market to go short; however if European situation deteriorates then this would be followed by heavy selling in Euro and high yielding assets, causing US Dollar to strengthen.
For the trend we still keep our bias towards upside wherein after achieving our 1st target off 56.25. The objective remains to 56.68 for now (Both Fibonacci extensions). Supports are seen towards 55.95 and then 55.82 for today and only a daily close below 55.45 should be considered as a correction from its consistent upside.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report, 23rd May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis-23.5.12_xDirectIndia

Indian markets settled on a lower note as rupee tumbled to an all time low amid fears of slowing economic growth. The market opened positive tracking the US markets which closed in the green yesterday with Dow Jones up more than 1%  on  Monday.  The  rupee nevertheless recovered slightly in the morning at 54.6025 after breaching the 55 mark in yesterday’s session. The upside on the Indian Rupee should be now matched with the US Dollar strength that rose up to 16-month high. The 100 points fall in the Nifty is now going to take its toll further, as importers demand for US Dollar increases as month-end nears. Unless the government does not take necessary stance to
cut down on its subsidy burden there will be demand on the US Dollar considering its strength on the board. For today markets are to remain under pressure and thus may trade on sideways to bearish mode for today.

Nifty has its immediate support at 4804, a breach of which would test levels around 4765 (Low of May 18th, 2012). Resistance should be maintained 4840 and then 4885 and only a close above levels of 4885 should be considered as a meaningful correction in the indice.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR-23.5.12_xDirectIndia

The Indian Rupee opened on a positive note yesterday trading near the 54.65 level (against the US Dollar after the central bank introduced measures preventing banks from taking large positions in currency exchanges. Though the
optimism was short lived, it tumbled marking another day of record –low levels closing at 55.39 against the US Dollar. The home currency fell to touch an intra-day low at 55.47 as traders sold the INR owing to reeling growth problems in the domestic economy coupled with rise in the Dollar index.

Intra-day Outlook

Spot USDINR: In the domestic space, the Indian Rupee is expected trade in a narrow range post the persistent losses in past few trading session, with bias still on the weaker side. Volatility is seen continuing on the higher side wherein gains may come only if some concrete steps are taken by the RBI or the Indian government

A certain downside could be witnessed in the pair, where its initial support at 54.60, is well kept; the pair now holds its upside resistance of its bullish trend channel dated from March 8th high of 50.29 at 55.82 hence a breach should form it towards 56.25 and then 56.68 (Fibonacci extensions). Support of 54.60 is not held then wee may see a correction towards 53.95 levels in today’ss session.

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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 10th January, 2012

VIEW 0N NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening couldn't trade below previous day low and on higher side 4775 was tested where the closing was around the level of 4754 and flat trading was seen through out the day. Today as the Asian stock markets Japan emerged from a Monday holiday to trade on better-than-expected U.S. jobs data that broke last Friday, and also Reports that European leaders remain united in keeping the currency zone intact also bolstered Asian equities markets. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4720 will open the door for 4680 to 4620 immediately, where as further 4200 can be expected in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4780 on closing basis. It’s unexpected to cross the higher resistance of 4850 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a - b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic which has reverted from the overbought zone is just below 80% zone and is expected to give short correction in market.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee last trading session closing was seen at 52.8 and on higher side 53.05 was the resistance taken and was trading downward as some buying pressure is seen at the level of 52.75 around. Today opening was seen down side around 53.75 per$ with the spike where some downward move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 52.2 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 53 per$ where till the time support of 52 per$ holds buying at dips is advised around 52.25 and above 52.6 per$ will further move to 53 in near term. In short term trading range bound to down move is expected where it will move slowly to test 52.2 per$ and on higher side resistance is seen at 53 per$. Stochastic which has given -ve intersection near lower zone which indicates price will move side way to down side and lower target can be tested soon.

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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 9th January, 2012

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty last Friday after the downward opening at the level of 4738 tested the lower level of 4690 and after crossing the resistance of 4800 and testing the level of 4818 closing was seen below the resistance of 4800 around the level of 4779. Today as the Asian market trading downward with the growing fear of the European Debt crisis will not get any short term exit signal on the way down. While fears may be ebbing that Iran will make good on threats and close the Strait of Hormuz, and while U.S. economic indicators illustrate a firming labor market and improved manufacturing output, Europe's uncertainty served as the markets' primary steering current. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4750 will open the door for 4680 to 4620 immediately, where as further 4200 can be expected in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4850 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4850 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a - b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic are trading in the mid zone and if the resistance is holding selling may be seen at higher level.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee last trading session closing was seen at 52.94 and on higher side 53.25 was the resistance taken and was trading -ve as some buying pressure is seen at the level of 52.85 around. Today opening was seen positive around 53.65 per$ with the spike where some -ve move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 52.8 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 53.15 per$ where till the time support of 52.85 holds buying at dips is advise around 53 per$ and will test 53.25 and above 53.5 per$ will further move to 54 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will move side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 2nd January, 2012

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty on Friday after opening at 4688 which was 10 DMA could not trade higher and after trading below previous day low of 4660 it tested the days low of 4613 and closing was just near the lower level of 4624 level. Today as the Asian market are closed not much move is expected in the market where the trading range will be 4660 as higher side resistance and support of 4570 and will expect a selling pressure in the market where lower level support can be tested. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4600 will open the door for 4560 to 4520 immediately, where as further 4200 can be expected in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4680 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a - b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic has just nearing the overbought zone and if the resistance is taken at 4800 will turn -ve and will move back to lower zone.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee last Fridays closing was seen at 53.48 which were positive closing and is still holding the support level of 53.2 on closing basis. Today opening was seen positive around 53.65 per$ where some positive move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 53.5 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54 per$ where till the time support of 53.5 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.6 per$ and will test 53.84 and above 54 per$ will further move to 54.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will move side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 30th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the flat opening at 4706 failed to trade above 4725 and on lower side after crossing the level of 4680 it tested the days low at 4663 and closing was also seen near the lower level of 4669. Today as the Asian market is trading positive and as the international market there is low volume just before the year and closure of the books we expect nifty to trading in the range where higher side resistance is seen at 4720 and lower side support is expected at 4660 level. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4660 will open the door for 4400 to 4200 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4775 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a - b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic has just nearing the overbought zone and if the resistance is taken at 4800 will turn -ve and will move back to lower zone.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday closing was seen positive at the level of 53.68 where it tested the higher level of 53.8 and short profit booking at high was seen. Today opening was seen downward around 53.6 per$ where some positive move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 53.5 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54 per$ where till the time support of 53.5 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.6 per$ and will test 54 and above 54 per$ will further move to 54.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will rise side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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xDirect India

Daily NIFTY & USD/INR Report 29th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening at 4736 failed to trade above 4750 and on lower side it tested the lower level of 4681 and closing was just seen at 4700 where the 10 DMA was there, with the international market news on Euro zone crises where banks are holding the funds gave sharp correction in market. Today as the Asian market is trading downward and nifty is expected to open around 4670 and will take support 10 DMA at 4660 and if trading is seen below 4660 will bring to lower level of 4610 and 4550 in near term. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4550 will open the door for 4400 to 4200 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4775 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a- b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic has just nearing the overbought zone and if the resistance is taken at 4800 will turn -ve and will move back to lower zone.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday closing was seen positive at the level of 53.6 where it tested the higher level of 53.8 and short profit booking at high was seen. Today opening was seen positive around 53.77 per$ where some positive move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 53.5 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54 per$ where till the time support of 53.5 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.65 per$ and will test 54 and above 54.2 and further will move to 54.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will rise side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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xDirect India

Daily NIFTY & USD/INR Report 29th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening at 4736 failed to trade above 4750 and on lower side it tested the lower level of 4681 and closing was just seen at 4700 where the 10 DMA was there, with the international market news on Euro zone crises where banks are holding the funds gave sharp correction in market. Today as the Asian market is trading downward and nifty is expected to open around 4670 and will take support 10 DMA at 4660 and if trading is seen below 4660 will bring to lower level of 4610 and 4550 in near term. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4550 will open the door for 4400 to 4200 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4775 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a- b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic has just nearing the overbought zone and if the resistance is taken at 4800 will turn -ve and will move back to lower zone.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday closing was seen positive at the level of 53.6 where it tested the higher level of 53.8 and short profit booking at high was seen. Today opening was seen positive around 53.77 per$ where some positive move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 53.5 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54 per$ where till the time support of 53.5 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.65 per$ and will test 54 and above 54.2 and further will move to 54.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will rise side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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xDirect India

NIFTY & USD/INR Report 28th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after sideway opening at 4774 tested the higher level of 4804 where the 20 DMA resistance was seen at 4815 and on lower side after testing the lower level of 4725 closing was seen around the level of 4756. Today as the Asian market is trading flat to -ve nifty is expected to open around 4740 and will take support 10 DMA at 4702 and if trading is seen below 4702 will bring to lower level of 4640 and 4550 in near term. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4700 will open the door for 4660 to 4600 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4775. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a- b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic has just nearing the overbought zone and if the resistance is taken at 4800 will turn -ve and will move back to lower zone.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday closing was seen positive just above the resistance level of 53 per$ at the level of 53.08 and as expected is moving upside where we expect it to test the level of 53.5 to 53.8 in near term. Today opening was seen sideway around 53.05 per$ where some range bound move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 52.9 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 53.4 per$ where till the time support of 52.8 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.05 per$ and will test 53.2 and above 53.2 will move to 53.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will rise side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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xDirect India

NIFTY & USD/INR Report 26th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty after the positive opening at 4767 just reverted fromn the higher level of 4770 and on lower side it tested the low of 4695 and closing was seen at the level of 4720 just above the support level of 4700. Today as the Asian market is trading flat to positive with the international market on Holiday mood, nifty is expected to open positive and trading will be seen in the range of 4770 resistance and support will be seen at 4680 and if it fails to cross 4770 and 4800 level selling may be seen from higher level where 4700 can be retested. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4740 will open the door for 4680 to 4600 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4780. Its not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a- b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic are trading in the mid zone where its still showing upside move where if the price cross 4800 will enter in over bought zone where as if support is broken will become side way for further confirmation of trend.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee on Friday after the opening at 52.7 fails to trade below 52.7 and reversal in price was seen where on higher side it tested the level of 52.99 where 53 was the resistance seen in market, closing was seen at the higher level of 52.97. Today opening was seen sideway around 52.9 per$ where some range bound move is expected where on higher side resistance is seen at 53 per$ and on lower side support is seen at 52.8 per$ where is the support of 52.5 holds buying at dips is advise and will test 53.2 and above 53.2 will move to 53.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic are nearing the oversold zone with positive intersection where if the price move above 53 will move towards higher zone where some buying may be seen for higher level.

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xDirect India

Nifty & USD/INR Reprt 20th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening at 4590 tested the lower level of 4559 and after range bound move closing was seen at 4612 after testing the higher level of 4631 where the gap was filtered. Today as the Asian market is trading sideways and it’s expected that Nifty will open sideway where on lower side will take immediate support of 4550 and sustain below 4550 will bring to 4480 to 4350 in near term, whereas on higher side its not expected to trade above 4650 and till the time its holding 4650 selling will continue in market. Today’s trading range will be 4650 resistance and support of 4450 and trading below 4580 will bring to 4500 – 4450 intraday. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4450 will open the door for 4300 to 4100 in medium term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4650. Stochastic has drifted below overbought zone and is trading towards lower zone where further selling in the price is expected in near to medium term.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday after the gap down opening at 52.91 failed to trade below the same and on higher side it tested the level of 53.36 where most of the trading was range bound and closing was seen near 53.07 levels. Today opening was seen positive around 53.17 per$ where it trades above 53.1 will test 53.5 to 54 in near term. For short term rupee is expected to trade in the lower range of 52.8 per$ support and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54.5 and some consolidation move is expected. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in near term where buying at dips is advice in medium term positional traders. Stochastic has reverted from the higher zone with-ve  intersection and is trading at 70% zone with downward intersection where selling can be expected in near term.

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xDirect India

Nifty & USD/INR Reprt 19th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty on Friday after testing the level of 4836 days high failed the cross the higher level of 4850 and on lower side it tested the level of 4623 which was 200 points low form the days high, where the sharp selling was seen at the last two hrs. Today as the Asian market is trading sideways to downside and it’s expected that Nifty will open -ve where on lower side will take immediate support of 4500 and sustain below 4500 will bring to 4400 to 4300 in near term, whereas on higher side its not expected to trade above 4650 and till the time its holding 4650 selling will continue in market. Today’s trading range will be 4650 resistance and support of 4450 and trading below 4580 will bring to 4500 – 4450 intraday. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4450 will open the door for 4300 to 4100 in medium term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4650. Stochastic has drifted below overbought zone and is trading towards lower zone where further selling in the price is expected in near to medium term.



VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee on Friday after the gap down opening at 53.2 per$ from the previous closing of 53.82 tested the lower level of 52.28 and closing was seen near the level of 52.8 per$. With the same RBI intervention as expected it test the level of 52.2 once and is expected reversal where again its trading above 53 where trading will move and test 53.5 – 54 again. Today opening was seen positive around 52.8 per$ where it trades above 53.1 will test 53.5 to 54 in near term. For short term rupee is expected to trade in the lower range of 52.5per$ support and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54.5 and some consolidation move is expected. Stochastic has reverted from the higher zone with -ve  intersection and is trading at 70% zone with -ve intersection where selling can be expected in near term.

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xDirect India