Greek's Bailout Saga - To Be or Not To Be

Deliberations about Greece’s next round of possible bailout tranche will conclude today- 20th November, 2012; wherein possible ease on pressure could be found in EUR/USD as topics on lowering the debt-ratio (amount of debt held on GDP by the economy…where lower debt is positive for the currency) or extending the dates on debts that is to be re-paid by Greece.

This meeting is fairly important as Eurozone Finance Ministers are meeting up determined in extending the amount of time that is required for bridging the gap of the deficits, which would help the reduction of these deficits by EUR 32.6 Billion till 2016; moreover delaying the decision of Greece bailout of EUR 31.5 Billion.

So why is there a high uncertainty in the market today…awaiting for results on the meeting?

Yes, out of the total EUR 164.5 Billion the IMF contribution is only just above 1/6^th of the total which is about EUR 28 Billion…however what’s important is that its not the meeting that the market is concerned about but the clash with the IMF Chief who is reluctant in extending the loan repayment deadline by 2 years. Earlier it was agreed that Greece would re-pay the debt with 4.5% as surplus on its GDP by 2014; however Euro Zone is reluctant on rigidity of IMF and it would not accept the 2014 deadline.

The Saga of trouble in Greece…

It has been confirmed by the Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras where he stated that his government will run out of money by mid-November if it fails to secure the loan installment. Now Two things remain that would result in either the EUR/USD run-up on the upside or another falter towards 1.2650 levels.

   1)  The amount of loan is required by Greece and that is for sure and therefore a positive vibe by allowing another tranche of aid by the Euro Zone could be provided there shall be no restrain by Germany which all-in-all is reluctant to provide more amounts towards its bailout program. So another round of bailout package “Which we are highly expecting” should boost EUR/USD higher.

   2)  The extension: Even though IMF maybe reluctant in extending the deadline, the EURO Zone could intervene by providing more loans (but again Germany would be reluctant in the same as it contributes the highest). So what one can expect from IMF Chief is that even though “IF” and that a BIG “if” it supports in extending the loan repayment it shall ask for additional surplus in its deficit on GDP from current 4.50%.)

   On one end IMF is unlikely for an extension with Germany and even UK reluctant in further amount of spending by the Euro Zone members…But what we anticipate is that an Extension could be achieved with a certain amount of bailout to be awarded by the Euro Zone with revised terms and conditions and thus possibly should drive the market higher…wherein they may overlook on the terms and conditions laid on it.
     




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VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY- 20th August, 2012

EUR/USD

EUR/USD:  

We had asked all of our traders to carry forward till Monday (today) on their Short EUR/USD from 1.2375

and Target hit at 1.2290; however which has once again bounced on the upside. However we are still playing on the range and therefore would look at the same levels of resistance in order to go for short levels…however we would be looking for 1.2410/1.2415 for a breach to affirm an upside in the same. Nevertheless we would be initiating short positions at levels around 1.2380 till 1.2390 levels for its downside of 1.2330/1.2335. Only a breach below of 1.2320 would then push it lower to 1.2290 and then towards 1.2255 levels. Considering this is a Holiday with minimal data no major movement could be expected in European Session until the US session opens up, with S&P 500 still holding its resistance on the topside.

However if selling appears to be solid a break of 1.2260/1.2255 would indefinitely push it to 1.2215/1.2202 levels for

today. Nevertheless if sideways movements continue then we would be sticking on the levels instated.

Mode: SIDEWAYS Supports:: 1.2325, 1.225   5 Resistance: 1.2405, 1.2480.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD too seems to be playing range bound, however at one stage seemed quite weak after is loss  1.5685/80 levels on Friday and hence we are looking that its trends on the upside be capped till 1.5745 levels. We would be therefore looking for opportunities to go short at levels around 1.5730/1.5745 levels and would negate our downside only if the levels of 1.5752/1.5460 are breached strongly to test its next resistance at 1.5775/1.5780 levels. Therefore any upside should be seen to test 1.5730 levels to go short but should hold it strongly to test 1.5690 followed by 1.5665/60 levels.

Mode: Bearish Supports::      1.5680, 1.5655, 1.5625 Resistance: 1.5750, 1.5782

AUD/USD

AUD/USD: 

On Friday we had asked all our Traders To enter-into Long in AUD/USD at 1.0410/1.0412 levels despite our Positional Call given since August 14th at 1.0560/1.0540 levels and hence achieving our 1st objective around 1.0450/1.0440 levels. We would be covering our long Calls given on Friday over here as the Hourly Charts are well overbought but would be re-instating longs again at 1.0420/1.0408 levels. The levels of around 1.0380 is quite crucial in order to negate the bounce in AUD/USD as the break below would emancipate huge selling in the market for levels to tests 1.0330/1.0315 levels. However considering this would be a sideways day we would be exiting our long calls at 1.0450 levels and hence re-instating longs only if 1.0408 levels are held strongly.

Mode: SIDEWAYS/BEARISH    Supports:: 1.0405, 1.0378, 1.0330 Resistance: 1.0450, 1.0500, 1.0520

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 12th July, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis By xDirect India

Indian equities extended intraday losses and is near day’s low as traders continued to book profits after a sharp up-move in last session and weak global cues. Brokers said reports of less than average monsoon rains this season might hamper efforts to boost economy and hurt company earnings this quarter impacted the market sentiment. The IMD said that monsoon, the life- line of Indian agriculture, has covered the entire country but rains are still deficient by 23%. Indian markets ended today`s session on a lower note on the back of weak global cues and heavy selling witnessed in auto, FMCG, realty and metal stocks.

The gap down open in the market has definitely enabled the sellers to prompt their activities considering we had yet other depressing FOMC minutes where no sign of QE was provided. This shifted the mindset of traders which now in turn are in selling activities. The immediate resistance comes in at 5290 levels followed by 5325 levels on the rising trend line (former support and now resistance). Expect selling pressure to remain at higher levels unless we have a fundamental trigger which makes the price action to close above 5320 levels, would negate the bearish bias.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis By xDirect India

The Indian Rupee extended losses on Monday falling to its lowest levels in almost a week led by weak cues across the Asian and European stocks markets and post the acute drop in the Euro on Friday which slipped to its two year lows below the 1.2300 level. Broad weakness in the domestic stock markets also put pressure on the local currency which finished with a loss of a percentage yesterday. It seems even though a slight positive reaction in the European currencies did not aid any boost to risk appetite neither towards appreciation to INR value. We therefore require a more of a fundamental trigger that would enable an upside in the same.

The USDINR pair seems to hold its daily Fibonacci support at 55.74 and if it continues to do so then we are looking at 55.92, 56.08 and then 56.14. However a break of intraday low which is also the support (Fibonacci) then 55.65 followed by 55.50 would be tested. We keep our bias on the upside.


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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 3rd July, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_03.07.2012_xDirect India

Indian equity markets snapped its winning streak however this could be only due to profit booking on the counter. Moreover domestic fundamentals has a better offering despite the fact global uncertainties loom in with Non Farm Payrolls on the horizon at the end of the week. It is such that the Prime Minister has decided to take over the responsibilities of Finance Ministry as well and therefore could provide necessary means for the reforms to take action.

Meanwhile HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.0 to marking a 4-month high which has increased from54.8 in May, resulting in an expansion in the economy. Markets have opened in the positive but has slipped from its high of5303 levels. We still hold the support levels of 5270 to be pivotal for it to mark as a level which if broken would result in a shortterm bearish bias. On the upside resistance of 5360-5375 still remains as an target level as long as supports of 5270 is held; nevertheless a breach would result into 5210 levels on the downside.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_03.07.2012_xDirect India

The Indian posted third consecutive positive closing on Monday as market optimism led by the host of measures announced in the EU summit last week still drove markets higher. While day’s economic data from different economies came mixed, the relief rally continued in most Asian and European markets also driving decent gains inn the Asian currency space. At the Interbank exchange in Mumbai, the INR finished at 55.43 against Friday’s finish of 55.6050.  Indian stock markets dipped marginally on Monday, snapping four days of gains mainly due to profit booking in the stable FMCG sector. India’s benchmark, BSE Sensex 30 fell 0.2% to 17,398.99 points whereas broader NSE Nifty 50 fell 0.01% to 5,278.60 points.
 Indian Rupee is expected to continue trade with a positive bias tracking the moderate bullishness in the Euro and gains in most emerging markets. However this week most of the major economic data is only expected in the US session and therefore some sort of short term (intraday) momentum could be expected.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 26th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

xDirect India's Nifty Analysis_26.06.2012

Benchmark indices ended weak erasing early gains, as investors were not impressed by the RBI’s measures to stem the rupee’s fall and the government did not announce any reforms as pledged last week. RBI enhanced the FII limit in G-Secs to $20 billion from $15 billion. It also allowed Indian companies in infrastructure to borrow through the ECB route up to $10 bn. The low amount of liquidity would obviously take away volatility and volumes which eventually turned out to be a negative session for the Nifty. Even the global markets were quite sticky with risk aversion combined with overselling kept the price movements range bound with the US Dollar just bouncing on every dips.

With the sudden drop in the market being witnessed yesterday, the government has announced today that it would take necessary steps to stem the Rupee depreciation; nevertheless these comments came in futile as global uncertainty has indeed gripped on the bull traders to resume on their trading with INR still hovering at its all-time low levels. For today we have a light on the counter from Euro Zone and UK, but US Consumer Confidence being the most important. However the Indian markets would trade sideways with supports coming in at interim levels of 5095 levels (Rising trend line). Followed by 5050 (50% retracement) and then 5023 (Falling trend line). Resistance is seen towards 5140, 5178 levels; however considering bearish trend has been commenced we believe Nifty has little chance of building momentum over 5180 levels for the week.

View on Indian Rupee

xDirect India's USD/INR Analysis_26.06.2012

The Indian Rupee gained sharply in yesterday’s trade bolstered by the expectations of big-bang policy measures from the Government of India and the RBI. The Rupee opened sharply higher and continued rising to make a high near the 56.3750 level. Though it weakened from day’s high and ended at 57.01 to the US Dollar after the measures  introduced by the RBI disappointed markets.

The main step announced was to increase in the cap on foreign investment in Indian government debt  to  $20  billion  from  $15  billion.  The government also reduced the minimum period investors need to hold some bonds to three years from five years, making them more attractive to foreign funds.

The Indian Rupee is expected to trade in a tight spot where in, where on the upside the resistance is seen towards 57.42 (Fibonacci extension) followed by 57.65 levels. Supports come in at 56.40 (yesterday session low). There might be some sort of positives seen in the market considering the constant selling but we believe the bear trend would resume considering the ill-liquid FOMC state,, followed by the multiple downgrades. For today however we would want the US Consumer Confidence to give some amount of boost as yesterday’s housing sales marked good numbers, its best in 3 years.

For today the market is expected to be range bound however, where European session may mark some amount of swings in the global market which may give certain movement in the currency pair.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 15th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_15.06.2012_xDirect India

Indian markets dropped over 1% on Thursday on concern the higher than expected inflation will reduce possibility of aggressive monetary easing by the RBI on June 18. The WPI inflation for the month of May rose to 7.55% as against the previous month`s figure of 7.23% and previous year`s corresponding month`s figure of 9.56%. Moreover the March inflation was revised upwards from 6.89% provisional to 7.69%. Weak European markets further intensified the selling pressure. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex declined 202.63 points or 1.20% at 16,677.88 with 26 components posting drop. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty went down by 66.70 points or 1.30% at 5,054.75 with 44 components posting drop. Market is expected to open on positive note and likely to remain range bound ahead of Greece election on Sunday. More Americans applied for jobless benefits and consumer prices dropped by the most in three years, giving the Federa Reserve room to spur an economy that’s generating little growth or inflation. Claims for unemployment insurance payments unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9, Laborr Department figures showed in Washington.

Outlook for today Nifty has an immediate resistance at 5,090-5,100 levels; on a decisive close above expect rise to 5,140 & 5,180 levels. However with early Asian markets in the positive we expect the markets too would perform in a likewise manner moreover with INR appreciating would give out further confidence to the Indian equity overall. We therefore would like to initiate a buy at 5082 (former resistance and now support) for the target of 5150 levels. Stop Loss to be placed at 5045 (previous session low).

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_ 15.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian rupee gains v/s the US dollar on Friday on the back of firm move in the domestic share market. On Friday, the rupee suffered from falls in global risk assets on the back of the lack of clarity on potential U.S. monetary stimulus, worries China will post weak data on Saturday, and concerns about Spanish banking woes.
Today, the sentiment is positive in the global market with stock markets, the euro and oil rallied after less bad Chinese data then expected along with a Spain’s bank bailout. The market welcomed the weekend news that Spain secured a EUR100 billion ($125 billion) loan to bolster its banking system, which makes the country the fourth and largest Euro Zone economy to be rescued by its euro-zone partners.
On Saturday, China released economic data which showed a weakening economy, but was not as bad as some expected. The PBoC made a surprise cut to interest rates ahead of the data, which was taken as a signal by the market that May’s figures were going to be very bad. As per data, China’s trade surplus was $18.7bn in May, a touch bigger than its $18.4bn surplus in April. Industrial production nudged up to a 9.6 per cent rise from 9.3 per cent in April. Inflation receded to 3.0 per cent year-on-year in May, the lowest in two years and down from 3.4 per cent in April. Today, the Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.1% and Korea’s Kospi was 1.7% higher. Singapore’s Strait Times Index rose 1.5% and the China Shanghai Composite was up 0.3%.

Immediate support is at 55.30 and 55.10 levels. Intraday resistance is at 55.43 and then at 55.55 levels. Any pullback towards the resistance is ideal for selling.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 1st June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_1.6.2012_xDirect India

The Indian markets dipped and closed in a dismal state considering poor reports from 1st quarter GDP numbers of FY13,, coupled with persistent weakness in the global markets has indeed kept the pressure on the risk appetite among investors to initiate their buying .
The losses were led mainly from the Auto ancillary, Banking,, Capital Goods and metal Stocks. The Index opened up itself on the gap
down, as negativity started looming among the local traders on the back of bloating fears of Greece’s exit from Euro Zone. Nevertheless the  bear market just happened to par its losses but only to a certain extent, as inflation numbers reported from the Euro Zone came in better than expected; however more than a catalyst run we anticipate a certain pullback was witnessed due to continuous selling being made on the Indian equity market.
For today, the market does have a potential to go  down  even  further,  considering  the persistent depreciation in the Indian Rupee
that still chokes on the investors; nevertheless with US employment data to be reported some sort of consolidation could be ascertained considering the global markets would now strategize based on the catalyst reported today.

Nifty bounced from the support levels of 4870 and closed above 4900 levels at 4924. Interim resistance is witnessed at 4970-4985 levels, where a fresh bout of selling could be expected however, if the rally persists, which may prompt by bringing new buyers where one can expect levels to test 5047 and 5085 levels.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_1.6.2012_xDirect India

The US markets closed in flat; however considering the US Dollar’s persistent strength would push INR higher; however we anticipate a certain amount of pullback could be expected in the US Dollar that should preserve the pair to once again record a new all-time high.
Globally, Euro has extended its losses to mark its fresh lows in 2012 and dropped near the July 2010 lows on sustained weakness from the Spanish and Greek financial and political system. The EURUSD slipped in late trade yesterday to close more than 1% lower at 1.2365 levels, against the USD while it fell more than 1.6% against the Yen to finish at  97.70. Markets are concerned regarding the Spain’s struggle to rescue its troubled banks while additional pressure emerged after Italy sold less than its maximum target at a debt auction.

Intraday Outlook:
The Indian Rupee is expected to continue its pullback from the high of 56.50, to test its supports at 55.58 (23.60% retracement from low of 52.68 to recent high of 56.50).. Resistance at intraday high of 56.27 would be maintained and only a break should push it higher towards 56.68 (Fibonacci expansions)

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 29th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_29th May_xDirectIndia

The Indian markets settled on a higher note yesterday, as global markets nevertheless gave in favorable cues that aided Nifty to break
above the pivotal 4,950 mark. Even though the afternoon session there some profit booking witnessed on the counter, positive movement on the European market instilled that the Indian markets remain in the positive side. Among Industrial Sectors Banking topped the performance that prompted buying in the market, where the Benchmark SENSEX added 199 points closing the day at 16416.84, meanwhile Nifty too closing above 65 points closing in at 4985.65 points.

The resistance at 4957 has been breached, where decisively has portrayed a bullish signal in the same. The resistance at 5032 followed by 5078 could be tested in coming sessions; nevertheless for today the positive moves could be a bit subdued marking the movements flat in the same.

Supports remain at levels around 4965-4940, if holds strongly then we anticipate another bout of buying may be witnessed to close above 5000 mark

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_29th May_xDirectIndia

The correction in the US Dollar seemed to have come in a good time, boosting the strength on the Rupee that pulled away from its all-time low of 56.38.
The selling on the US Dollar also came on the back of renewed appetite among traders overall that started the week with pulling away from the oversell region; however we still anticipate the trends are still uncertain and therefore the trading and movement for the week would remain flat, as media-favorite Non   Farm   Payrolls   and  US employment numbers would be in store for a trend to be showcased for the near future.

 

Intra-day Outlook

Spot USDINR:
Despite a small showdown of INR appreciation has been witnessed for the past 3 session, we still keep our bias towards upside for the pair, as the support of 54.90 would be held strongly in the spot market. The supports on the interim are seen towards 55.53 (23.60% retracement from the low of 52.668 May 8th to the recent high of 56.379 on May 24th) followed by 55.05 and then 54.90 (both resistance turned support). Today the movement would be quite as traders decide on the catalyst to decide on its next trade strategies.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 24th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

nifty_24.5.2012_xDirect India

A yet another day of liquidation in equity markets, on basis of risk aversion has taken its toll in the SENSEX that ended below 16,000 marking its lowest level since January 7th, 2012. The uncertainty on the economy has indeed choked investors, which was backed by
the Rupee depreciation. USD/INR in spot has marked its highest level ever at 56.30 amid weak global trends, where SENSEX after marking a 157 drop further added about 80 points fall in the same session, as weakness in thee net importing economy would indeed makes consumption  more expensive.
For today, perhaps some sort of respite could be provided; however we should be watchful during the European session, wherein after a freefall in these markets that recorded a 2% fall, was witnessed, due to Greek issue and failure on providing any sort decision on Summit that was held yesterday.
Today, markets could witness some buying however; if risk aversion intensifies the buying on the counter could turn out to be a huge bout of selling.
Nifty finds its immediate support at 4804, where a breach could push it lower towards 4765 (Low of May 18th). Resistance at 4850 would be well kept for today wherein only a daily close above 4940 would be considered as a meaningful correction.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_24.5.2012_xDirectIndia

The Indian Rupee continued its losing streak against the US Dollar and slipped below the psychological 56 mark on Wednesday. It plunged to an Intra-day low of 56.30, hitting a record low for the sixth straight session before finally closing at 56 levels against the USD. The fall in the Rupee persisted despite uninterrupted assurances and interventions in the currency markets by the Reserve Bank of India. Yesterday’s fall was led by demand for the Greenback from importers and banks amid rising risk aversion in the global markets. The has weakened more than 3% in the last three trading session while from its recent highs in Feb this year, the INR is down by over 23%, making its one of the most under-performing currencies amongst the globe.

Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR:
The RSI is its highest level since November 22, 2011 where constant upside has kept market to go short; however if European situation deteriorates then this would be followed by heavy selling in Euro and high yielding assets, causing US Dollar to strengthen.
For the trend we still keep our bias towards upside wherein after achieving our 1st target off 56.25. The objective remains to 56.68 for now (Both Fibonacci extensions). Supports are seen towards 55.95 and then 55.82 for today and only a daily close below 55.45 should be considered as a correction from its consistent upside.

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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 9th January, 2012

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty last Friday after the downward opening at the level of 4738 tested the lower level of 4690 and after crossing the resistance of 4800 and testing the level of 4818 closing was seen below the resistance of 4800 around the level of 4779. Today as the Asian market trading downward with the growing fear of the European Debt crisis will not get any short term exit signal on the way down. While fears may be ebbing that Iran will make good on threats and close the Strait of Hormuz, and while U.S. economic indicators illustrate a firming labor market and improved manufacturing output, Europe's uncertainty served as the markets' primary steering current. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4750 will open the door for 4680 to 4620 immediately, where as further 4200 can be expected in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4850 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4850 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a - b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic are trading in the mid zone and if the resistance is holding selling may be seen at higher level.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee last trading session closing was seen at 52.94 and on higher side 53.25 was the resistance taken and was trading -ve as some buying pressure is seen at the level of 52.85 around. Today opening was seen positive around 53.65 per$ with the spike where some -ve move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 52.8 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 53.15 per$ where till the time support of 52.85 holds buying at dips is advise around 53 per$ and will test 53.25 and above 53.5 per$ will further move to 54 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will move side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 4th January, 2012

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the positive opening at the level of 4703 failed to trade below 4700 and reversal in price was seen and after some short covering closing was seen positive at 4773 after testing the higher level of 4791. Today as the Asian market trading positive we expect positive opening in Nifty too, where on higher side 4850 is the immediate resistance level which is 40 DMA and if fails to trade above the same selling may continue from the higher level where as on lower side 4700 is the support and today’s trading range will be 4820 to 4720 level and selling is advise at higher level. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4750 will open the door for 4680 to 4620 immediately, where as further 4200 can be expected in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4850 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4850 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a - b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic are trading in the mid zone and is side way to positive and some bounce is still left where if the resistance is holding selling may be seen at higher level.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee last trading session closing was seen at 53.52 and on higher side 53.65 was the resistance taken and was trading downward as some selling pressure is seen at the level of 53.8 around. Today opening was seen around 53.45 per$ where some -ve move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 53.35 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 53.55 per$ where till the time support of 53.35 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.4 per$ and will test 53.84 and above 54 per$ will further move to 54.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will move side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 2nd January, 2012

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty on Friday after opening at 4688 which was 10 DMA could not trade higher and after trading below previous day low of 4660 it tested the days low of 4613 and closing was just near the lower level of 4624 level. Today as the Asian market are closed not much move is expected in the market where the trading range will be 4660 as higher side resistance and support of 4570 and will expect a selling pressure in the market where lower level support can be tested. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4600 will open the door for 4560 to 4520 immediately, where as further 4200 can be expected in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4680 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a - b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic has just nearing the overbought zone and if the resistance is taken at 4800 will turn -ve and will move back to lower zone.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee last Fridays closing was seen at 53.48 which were positive closing and is still holding the support level of 53.2 on closing basis. Today opening was seen positive around 53.65 per$ where some positive move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 53.5 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54 per$ where till the time support of 53.5 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.6 per$ and will test 53.84 and above 54 per$ will further move to 54.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will move side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 30th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the flat opening at 4706 failed to trade above 4725 and on lower side after crossing the level of 4680 it tested the days low at 4663 and closing was also seen near the lower level of 4669. Today as the Asian market is trading positive and as the international market there is low volume just before the year and closure of the books we expect nifty to trading in the range where higher side resistance is seen at 4720 and lower side support is expected at 4660 level. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4660 will open the door for 4400 to 4200 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4775 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a - b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic has just nearing the overbought zone and if the resistance is taken at 4800 will turn -ve and will move back to lower zone.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday closing was seen positive at the level of 53.68 where it tested the higher level of 53.8 and short profit booking at high was seen. Today opening was seen downward around 53.6 per$ where some positive move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 53.5 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54 per$ where till the time support of 53.5 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.6 per$ and will test 54 and above 54 per$ will further move to 54.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will rise side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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Daily NIFTY & USD/INR Report 29th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening at 4736 failed to trade above 4750 and on lower side it tested the lower level of 4681 and closing was just seen at 4700 where the 10 DMA was there, with the international market news on Euro zone crises where banks are holding the funds gave sharp correction in market. Today as the Asian market is trading downward and nifty is expected to open around 4670 and will take support 10 DMA at 4660 and if trading is seen below 4660 will bring to lower level of 4610 and 4550 in near term. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4550 will open the door for 4400 to 4200 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4775 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a- b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic has just nearing the overbought zone and if the resistance is taken at 4800 will turn -ve and will move back to lower zone.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday closing was seen positive at the level of 53.6 where it tested the higher level of 53.8 and short profit booking at high was seen. Today opening was seen positive around 53.77 per$ where some positive move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 53.5 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54 per$ where till the time support of 53.5 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.65 per$ and will test 54 and above 54.2 and further will move to 54.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will rise side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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xDirect India

Daily NIFTY & USD/INR Report 29th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening at 4736 failed to trade above 4750 and on lower side it tested the lower level of 4681 and closing was just seen at 4700 where the 10 DMA was there, with the international market news on Euro zone crises where banks are holding the funds gave sharp correction in market. Today as the Asian market is trading downward and nifty is expected to open around 4670 and will take support 10 DMA at 4660 and if trading is seen below 4660 will bring to lower level of 4610 and 4550 in near term. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4550 will open the door for 4400 to 4200 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4775 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a- b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic has just nearing the overbought zone and if the resistance is taken at 4800 will turn -ve and will move back to lower zone.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday closing was seen positive at the level of 53.6 where it tested the higher level of 53.8 and short profit booking at high was seen. Today opening was seen positive around 53.77 per$ where some positive move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 53.5 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54 per$ where till the time support of 53.5 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.65 per$ and will test 54 and above 54.2 and further will move to 54.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will rise side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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xDirect India

View on Major Currencies & Commodities 26th Dec, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY

EUR/USD: EURO on Friday on Friday which opened at 1.3050 was trading in the range of 1.3100 as resistance and support is seen at 1.3020 where range bound move as seen. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

GBP/USD: British Pound on Friday which opened at 1.5675 failed to trade above 1.5700 and after testing the lower level of 1.5585 closing was seen near days low at 1.5588 level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar on Fridays after the opening at 1.0129 was trading in the range of 1.0200 as resistance and support was seen at 1.0120 and after the range bound move trading was seen positive at 1.0148 level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar on Friday after opening at 0.7743 failed to trade above 0.7760 and on lower side it tested the level of 0.7715 where 0.7700 was support level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen on Friday after opening at 78.16 failed to trade above 78.2 and on lower side support was seen at 78 and closing was just near the support level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES

Gold: Gold on Friday after taking support of 1600$ as trading in the range whereon higher side it failed to cross 1615$ and support was seen at 1600$ as the International market are having holiday its expected to trading in the range where not much move is expected. Today opening was seen flat around 1605$ and is trading at 1604$ where it’s trading in the range of 1610$ resistance on closing basis and support of 1598$ on closing basis, and either side move on closing basis will confirm the trend. In short term time frame some range bound move is expected where 1620$ is resistance and 1570 will be the support level in medium term. On higher side at 1620$ is crossed will bring to 1640$, where as if its holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1540$ on lower side and further trading below 1540$ will continue the down trend on market where 1440$ will be tested in medium term. Stochastic has just popped out above the overbought zone where short room is getting generating before the next down side move which is expected if sustain trading below 1600 on closing basis.

Silver: Silver on Friday after opening at 29.06$ support as taken at 29$ and after testing the higher level of 29.42 closing was seen flat around the level of 29.05$. Today after the opening at 29.08$ trading range is expected of 29.2$ resistance and support will be seen at 29$ and sustain trading below the same will give move towards 28.8 – 28.5 immediately, as the support is holding strongly in past few trading session. Whereas further trading below 28$ will bring to 26$ – 24$ in near to medium term. On higher side only on closing basis above 30 - 31$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. Stochastic has just neared the oversold zone around 20% and is trading flat indicating if the resistance is holding and if the price trade below 28$ will bring to next support of 24$ in near term.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude on Friday after the opening at 107.79$ was trading in the range where on higher side it failed to cross the level of 108.5$ and on lower side support was seen at 107$ and closing was just positive at 107.97$. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic has near he overbought zone where some side wait and watch for the week end is advise.

Copper: Copper after the positive opening at 7455 after taking support of 4730 traded positive and tested the level of 7500 and closing was also seen at days high. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic has near he overbought zone where some side wait and watch for the week end is advise.

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xDirect India

NIFTY & USD/INR Report 26th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty after the positive opening at 4767 just reverted fromn the higher level of 4770 and on lower side it tested the low of 4695 and closing was seen at the level of 4720 just above the support level of 4700. Today as the Asian market is trading flat to positive with the international market on Holiday mood, nifty is expected to open positive and trading will be seen in the range of 4770 resistance and support will be seen at 4680 and if it fails to cross 4770 and 4800 level selling may be seen from higher level where 4700 can be retested. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4740 will open the door for 4680 to 4600 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4780. Its not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a- b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic are trading in the mid zone where its still showing upside move where if the price cross 4800 will enter in over bought zone where as if support is broken will become side way for further confirmation of trend.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee on Friday after the opening at 52.7 fails to trade below 52.7 and reversal in price was seen where on higher side it tested the level of 52.99 where 53 was the resistance seen in market, closing was seen at the higher level of 52.97. Today opening was seen sideway around 52.9 per$ where some range bound move is expected where on higher side resistance is seen at 53 per$ and on lower side support is seen at 52.8 per$ where is the support of 52.5 holds buying at dips is advise and will test 53.2 and above 53.2 will move to 53.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic are nearing the oversold zone with positive intersection where if the price move above 53 will move towards higher zone where some buying may be seen for higher level.

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xDirect India

NIFTY & USD/INR Report 23rd December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY
Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the low opening at 4671 couldn't cross the lower support of 4630 and on the higher side it tested the level of 4755 where the closing was also seen at days high. Today as the Asian market is trading positive it’s expected that Nifty will open gap up where this recent rise from the lower level of 4536 will only be the retracement of the fall from the higher level of 5131 to 4536 which is 38.2% of the fall, and if the resistance of 4765 is holding on closing basis I expect it to test the level of 4680 and 4550 before expiry. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4720 will open the door for 4550 to 4200 in medium term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4780. Its not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in near term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a- b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic are trading in the mid zone where its still showing upside move where if the price cross 4800 will enter in over bought zone where as if support is broken will become side way for further confirmation of trend.



VIEW ON RUPEE
USD/INR: Rupee yesterday after the gap up opening at 52.92 couldn't  trade above 53 and on lower side it tested the level of 52.66 where most of the trading was range bound and closing was seen near 52.77 levels. Today opening was seen sideway around 52.71 per$ where some range bound move is expected where on higher side resistance is seen at 523 per$ and on lower side support is seen at 52.55 per$ where is the support of 52.5 holds buying at dips is advise and will test 52.9 and above 53 will move to 53.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic are nearing the oversold zone and is showing sign of positive intersection where if the price move above 52.8 will give positive intersection and will move towards higher zone where some buying may be seen for higher level.

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xDirect India

NIFTY & USD/INR Report 22nd December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the positive opening at 4623 failed to cross the lower support of 4600 and on the higher side it tested the level of 4721 where the closing was also seen at days high. Today as the Asian market is trading -ve it’s expected that Nifty will open gap down around 4680 where on lower side will take immediate support of 4650 and sustain below 4650 will bring to 4580 to 4500 in near term, whereas on higher side its not expected to trade above 4750 and till the time its holding 4750 selling will continue in market. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4500 will open the door for 4300 to 4100 in medium term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4750. Stochastic has just popped out above over sold zone and is flat at the level where some range bounce move is expected till the time resistance is holding and may look some selling pressure if trading is seen below 4650 and will reenter in oversold zone.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday after the gap down opening at 52.92  couldn’t trade above 53 and on lower side it tested the level of 52.51 where most of the trading was range bound and closing was seen near 52.67 levels. Today opening was seen positive around 52.92 per$ where it’s still taking resistance of 53 and is trading -ve at 52.82 where trading range for the day will be 52.5 and 53 where as on lower side buying is expected if support holds at 52.5 and crossover above 53 will bring to 53.5 – 54 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which are trading in the mid zone is showing sign of reversal with positive intersecting which indicates if price move above 53 short term bottom is place and can test 45 and 54.5 level and will move beck to enter in over bought zone.

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xDirect India

Nifty & USD/INR Reprt 20th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening at 4590 tested the lower level of 4559 and after range bound move closing was seen at 4612 after testing the higher level of 4631 where the gap was filtered. Today as the Asian market is trading sideways and it’s expected that Nifty will open sideway where on lower side will take immediate support of 4550 and sustain below 4550 will bring to 4480 to 4350 in near term, whereas on higher side its not expected to trade above 4650 and till the time its holding 4650 selling will continue in market. Today’s trading range will be 4650 resistance and support of 4450 and trading below 4580 will bring to 4500 – 4450 intraday. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4450 will open the door for 4300 to 4100 in medium term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4650. Stochastic has drifted below overbought zone and is trading towards lower zone where further selling in the price is expected in near to medium term.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday after the gap down opening at 52.91 failed to trade below the same and on higher side it tested the level of 53.36 where most of the trading was range bound and closing was seen near 53.07 levels. Today opening was seen positive around 53.17 per$ where it trades above 53.1 will test 53.5 to 54 in near term. For short term rupee is expected to trade in the lower range of 52.8 per$ support and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54.5 and some consolidation move is expected. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in near term where buying at dips is advice in medium term positional traders. Stochastic has reverted from the higher zone with-ve  intersection and is trading at 70% zone with downward intersection where selling can be expected in near term.

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xDirect India