Nifty & USD/INR Report- 9th July, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

xDirect India's Nifty Analysis_09.07.2012

The Indian markets are poised to trade lower today tracking weak Asian session, as major cues were taken from Friday’s soft session in US markets due to lower additions in the employment report for the month of June. This has inflamed economic concerns that has actually paved for equity markets to trade lower and thus has indeed choked on Indian equities forcing them to par their mild gains that has been incurred in the previous week.

 The rate cut by ECB and China has been factored in last week, but what keeps pressure going on the equity markets too trade in the negative would be the deprecating value of the home currency and moreover with oil prices shooting back are providing concerns on the debt factors in the economy. However the monsoon climate could have provided some sort of respite in an otherwise bear market conditions.

 Nifty has its immediate support of 5290 (RISING TREND LINE) from where it’s trading at above 5300 levels; nevertheless we have to see a daily close above from its previous week top 5352, which therefore would only negate the bearish front of the market. Supports at 5292, 5270 followed by 5212. Resistance at 5337, 5352is witnessed. We firmly believe that the mild gains could be only due the factor that expectations were high on the US employment conditions, however neither an improved employment numbers nor an increased bets on QE expectations stoked equities higher that resulted in it to build a top and therefore may slide down towards 5250 levels.

View on Indian Rupee

xDirect India's USD/INR Analysis_09.07.2012

The Indian Rupee fell around 0.8% on Friday taking overall weak cues from the global markets amidst dollar demand from importers, overshadowing the sustained capital inflows into the Indian capital markets over past couple of trading sessions.
Amongst the global markets, the EUR/USD fell sharply in evening trade while the US Dollar index jumped firmly above the 83 mark after lower than expected US  data on  Jobs.  The US  Labor Department said on Friday Non-farm payrolls expanded by just 80,000 in June against expectation of 100,000 additions. This triggered a rally in US dollar and government treasury due to ultra safe heaven.
The Indian Rupee is expected to start the week on a negative as sharp drop in the US markets on Friday is and rise in the Dollar index is exerting pressure on Asian Stock and key currency markets. The EUR/USD is trading at two year lows which are further seen impacting the INR on the downside.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 3rd July, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_03.07.2012_xDirect India

Indian equity markets snapped its winning streak however this could be only due to profit booking on the counter. Moreover domestic fundamentals has a better offering despite the fact global uncertainties loom in with Non Farm Payrolls on the horizon at the end of the week. It is such that the Prime Minister has decided to take over the responsibilities of Finance Ministry as well and therefore could provide necessary means for the reforms to take action.

Meanwhile HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.0 to marking a 4-month high which has increased from54.8 in May, resulting in an expansion in the economy. Markets have opened in the positive but has slipped from its high of5303 levels. We still hold the support levels of 5270 to be pivotal for it to mark as a level which if broken would result in a shortterm bearish bias. On the upside resistance of 5360-5375 still remains as an target level as long as supports of 5270 is held; nevertheless a breach would result into 5210 levels on the downside.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_03.07.2012_xDirect India

The Indian posted third consecutive positive closing on Monday as market optimism led by the host of measures announced in the EU summit last week still drove markets higher. While day’s economic data from different economies came mixed, the relief rally continued in most Asian and European markets also driving decent gains inn the Asian currency space. At the Interbank exchange in Mumbai, the INR finished at 55.43 against Friday’s finish of 55.6050.  Indian stock markets dipped marginally on Monday, snapping four days of gains mainly due to profit booking in the stable FMCG sector. India’s benchmark, BSE Sensex 30 fell 0.2% to 17,398.99 points whereas broader NSE Nifty 50 fell 0.01% to 5,278.60 points.
 Indian Rupee is expected to continue trade with a positive bias tracking the moderate bullishness in the Euro and gains in most emerging markets. However this week most of the major economic data is only expected in the US session and therefore some sort of short term (intraday) momentum could be expected.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 26th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

xDirect India's Nifty Analysis_26.06.2012

Benchmark indices ended weak erasing early gains, as investors were not impressed by the RBI’s measures to stem the rupee’s fall and the government did not announce any reforms as pledged last week. RBI enhanced the FII limit in G-Secs to $20 billion from $15 billion. It also allowed Indian companies in infrastructure to borrow through the ECB route up to $10 bn. The low amount of liquidity would obviously take away volatility and volumes which eventually turned out to be a negative session for the Nifty. Even the global markets were quite sticky with risk aversion combined with overselling kept the price movements range bound with the US Dollar just bouncing on every dips.

With the sudden drop in the market being witnessed yesterday, the government has announced today that it would take necessary steps to stem the Rupee depreciation; nevertheless these comments came in futile as global uncertainty has indeed gripped on the bull traders to resume on their trading with INR still hovering at its all-time low levels. For today we have a light on the counter from Euro Zone and UK, but US Consumer Confidence being the most important. However the Indian markets would trade sideways with supports coming in at interim levels of 5095 levels (Rising trend line). Followed by 5050 (50% retracement) and then 5023 (Falling trend line). Resistance is seen towards 5140, 5178 levels; however considering bearish trend has been commenced we believe Nifty has little chance of building momentum over 5180 levels for the week.

View on Indian Rupee

xDirect India's USD/INR Analysis_26.06.2012

The Indian Rupee gained sharply in yesterday’s trade bolstered by the expectations of big-bang policy measures from the Government of India and the RBI. The Rupee opened sharply higher and continued rising to make a high near the 56.3750 level. Though it weakened from day’s high and ended at 57.01 to the US Dollar after the measures  introduced by the RBI disappointed markets.

The main step announced was to increase in the cap on foreign investment in Indian government debt  to  $20  billion  from  $15  billion.  The government also reduced the minimum period investors need to hold some bonds to three years from five years, making them more attractive to foreign funds.

The Indian Rupee is expected to trade in a tight spot where in, where on the upside the resistance is seen towards 57.42 (Fibonacci extension) followed by 57.65 levels. Supports come in at 56.40 (yesterday session low). There might be some sort of positives seen in the market considering the constant selling but we believe the bear trend would resume considering the ill-liquid FOMC state,, followed by the multiple downgrades. For today however we would want the US Consumer Confidence to give some amount of boost as yesterday’s housing sales marked good numbers, its best in 3 years.

For today the market is expected to be range bound however, where European session may mark some amount of swings in the global market which may give certain movement in the currency pair.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 19th June. 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_19.06.2012_xDirect India

The ongoing worries of Spain that pushed its yield rates to over 7.25% yesterday is overshadowing the Greek elections that came out to attempt a positive vibe in the global market. However, it was soon faded as borrowings become more expensive in the Euro Zone debt ridden nations. The one domestic fundamental that could have provided the much needed support would have been the RBI monetary policy decision; nevertheless all its rates (including CRR) were kept unchanged as RBI still thinks that inflation would be the more sought out problem rather than growth for the economy. European markets too ended mixed as worries about Spain and Italy dominated investor sentiment. Italy and Spain markets closed with 3% losses, while Germany, France and UK markets ended mixed. With no major data reported yesterday, US markets closed in mixed with Dow Jones slipping 0.20% while S&P 500 and NASDAQ eking out gains of 0.14% and 0.78% respectively.

Nifty closed in the negative by 75 points at 5064 just below its support of 5065;; moreover those alone weren’t the only problems that were to be faced as FITCH lowered India’s sovereign debt rating to negative from stable.

 For today the markets could come under pressure; however it could turn out that trading would be mixed as we turn into FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and the possible reactions to it. Therefore the support levels for intraday lies in 5060 levels (Falling trend line) followed by 5012 levels (horizontal Line support). Only a breach of 5044 levels could trigger another bearish trend for the Nifty to test 4954 levels (61.80% retracement). Resistance at 5082-5090 levels (50% retracement) followed by 5120 levels.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_19.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee slipped to its lowest levels in almost a week on Monday after the domestic central bank kept the benchmark interest rates unchanged, while Fitch downgrade of country’s outlook and late session cues from the European markets also hurting sentiment. The partially convertible Rupee fell to as low as 56.04 to the USD in the latter half taking domestic and global cues while closed at 55.9050 against the US Dollar as compared to Friday’s finish at 55.39.

Weakness in the local shares to contributed to the weakness in the INR. Indian shares dropped more than 1.4% marking their biggest percentage fall since June 1, led by a sell-off in Banking and financial sector after the central bank unexpectedly kept interest rates on hold. The RBI in its monetary policy review cited its continued concerns about inflationary pressures and weakening domestic fundamentals for no change in rates.

The home currency is expected to open lower on Tuesday tracking weakness in the Asian markets and after the EURUSD fell sharply against the day’s high at 1.2750 levels yesterday. Today morning, the common currency is trading with marginal gains which might provide some support to the local unit, though overall trend seems to be weak.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 15th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_15.06.2012_xDirect India

Indian markets dropped over 1% on Thursday on concern the higher than expected inflation will reduce possibility of aggressive monetary easing by the RBI on June 18. The WPI inflation for the month of May rose to 7.55% as against the previous month`s figure of 7.23% and previous year`s corresponding month`s figure of 9.56%. Moreover the March inflation was revised upwards from 6.89% provisional to 7.69%. Weak European markets further intensified the selling pressure. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex declined 202.63 points or 1.20% at 16,677.88 with 26 components posting drop. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty went down by 66.70 points or 1.30% at 5,054.75 with 44 components posting drop. Market is expected to open on positive note and likely to remain range bound ahead of Greece election on Sunday. More Americans applied for jobless benefits and consumer prices dropped by the most in three years, giving the Federa Reserve room to spur an economy that’s generating little growth or inflation. Claims for unemployment insurance payments unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9, Laborr Department figures showed in Washington.

Outlook for today Nifty has an immediate resistance at 5,090-5,100 levels; on a decisive close above expect rise to 5,140 & 5,180 levels. However with early Asian markets in the positive we expect the markets too would perform in a likewise manner moreover with INR appreciating would give out further confidence to the Indian equity overall. We therefore would like to initiate a buy at 5082 (former resistance and now support) for the target of 5150 levels. Stop Loss to be placed at 5045 (previous session low).

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_ 15.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian rupee gains v/s the US dollar on Friday on the back of firm move in the domestic share market. On Friday, the rupee suffered from falls in global risk assets on the back of the lack of clarity on potential U.S. monetary stimulus, worries China will post weak data on Saturday, and concerns about Spanish banking woes.
Today, the sentiment is positive in the global market with stock markets, the euro and oil rallied after less bad Chinese data then expected along with a Spain’s bank bailout. The market welcomed the weekend news that Spain secured a EUR100 billion ($125 billion) loan to bolster its banking system, which makes the country the fourth and largest Euro Zone economy to be rescued by its euro-zone partners.
On Saturday, China released economic data which showed a weakening economy, but was not as bad as some expected. The PBoC made a surprise cut to interest rates ahead of the data, which was taken as a signal by the market that May’s figures were going to be very bad. As per data, China’s trade surplus was $18.7bn in May, a touch bigger than its $18.4bn surplus in April. Industrial production nudged up to a 9.6 per cent rise from 9.3 per cent in April. Inflation receded to 3.0 per cent year-on-year in May, the lowest in two years and down from 3.4 per cent in April. Today, the Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.1% and Korea’s Kospi was 1.7% higher. Singapore’s Strait Times Index rose 1.5% and the China Shanghai Composite was up 0.3%.

Immediate support is at 55.30 and 55.10 levels. Intraday resistance is at 55.43 and then at 55.55 levels. Any pullback towards the resistance is ideal for selling.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 14th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_14.06.2012_xDirect India

Indian equity indices managed to pull back from session lows, they closed just marginally higher, as uncertainty over the RBI policy action on June 18th kept market players wondering on the result that would affect the outcome to Indian capital markets. The undercurrent was also cautious before the release of the latest WPI inflation report on Thursday. Major Asian markets posted decent gains while the European markets were trading nearly flat after a higher start. Worries over the euro zone credit crisis persisted ahead of Italian bond auction later this week and Greek Elections on June 17.
There was a volatile trading session witnessed in Nifty yesterday, where it ended the session with a mere 18 points gain; however did scale up over the resistance line of 5100 levels, poising to touch 5150 levels for the day; however we do have the WPI data that is to bee reported which may cause some amount of rift as traders gear up for the RBI rate policy decision next week.
Support lies in at interim levels of around 5100, followed by 5080-5075 levels and then 5025levels. If there are dips in the market then it should be as an opportunity to buy in the market; however on the global front we do have Greece elections to come up this Sunday. Resistance at 5150 followed by 5210 (38.20% retracement is witnessed)

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_14.06.2012_xDirect India

The currency market remains indecisive yesterday  before  the  crucial  Greece election on 17th June and Italian bond sale which is due today. In the global market, the EURUSD remained higher despite Moody’s cuts Spain rating to Baa3 from A3. Further cuts may come, according to Moody’s, warning that the country may eventually be cut to junk. Spain’s is not in a position for A or BAA ratings, the agency said. We presume due to dismal data on the retail growth in US that reported an unchanged improvement from its previous levels of -0.20% states that US consumers hasn’t revived their consumption habits, in which the nation thrives on.

Indian Rupee Intraday Outlook:
However after the initial rally till 1.26 on EUR/USD there was a slight pullback however we presume that some sort of risk-off  trigger  if  provided  then  a downside on EUR/USD could result in US Dollar buying eventually pushing USD/INR once again to over 56.00 levels.
We expect USDINR to trade sideways with Italian bonds which would be in focus for today. A good bid on the auctions would definitely play a good role in risk –on environment   giving   boost   to   INR appreciation.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report, 11th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_11.06.2012_xDirect India

The downside on the Indian equity markets was capped and moreover also sentiments in the global markets aided the Nifty to end the week on a higher note, wherever an upside was witnessed to its biggest levels since March end-April beginning week.  Investors in the equity market seem to discount the factors of a rate cut by the RBI, which was also coupled with solid gains on the infrastructure sectors as PM meets other cabinet ministers to plan out an action initiating developments in infra region.
The 30-share index, Sensex surged 753.71 points, or 4.72% to 16,718.87 for the week ended June 8, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty added 226.75 points, or 4.68%, to 5,068.35 during the week.
The Friday’s close ended the price action over and above the 5070 mark, which has now aided the price to open gap-up on the back of strong export figures and revived improved levels in imports, which has lifted market sentiments that world’s largest consumer has regained composure. Moreover the conference call among Euro Zone Finance Ministers also decided to provide bailout package to Spanish Banks.

Today we expect the positive note continue furthermore on the back of a follow through on the positive news from China and Euro Zone. Opening above 5084 mark (50% retracement) would now turn out as its support levels followed by 5060- 5070. The price action is poised to touch 5150 levels in today’s session followed by 5178 (Horizontal line resistance)

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_11.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian rupee lost v/s the US dollar on Friday despite firm move in the domestic share market. On Friday, the rupee suffered from falls in global risk assets on the back of the lackk of clarity on potential U.S. monetary stimulus, worries China will post weak data on Saturday, and concerns about Spanish banking woes.
Today, the sentiment is positive in the global market with stock markets, the euro and oil rallied after less bad Chinese data then expected along with a Spain’s bank bailout. The market welcomed the weekend news that Spain secured a EUR100 billion ($125 billion) loan to bolster its banking system, which makes the country the fourth and largest Euro Zone economy to be rescued by its euro-zone partners.
On Saturday, China released economic data which showed a weakening economy, but was not as bad as some expected. The PBoC made a surprise cut to interest rates ahead of the data, which was taken as a signal by the market that May’s figures were going to be very bad. As per data, China’s trade surplus was $18.7bn in May, a touch bigger than its $18.4bn surplus in April. Industrial production nudged up to a 9.6 per cent rise from 9.3 per cent in April. Inflation receded to 3.0 per cent year-on on-year in May, the lowest in two years and down from 3.4 per cent in April. Today, the Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.1% and Korea’s Kospi was 1.7% higher. Singapore’s Strait Times Index rose 1.5% and the China Shanghai Composite was up 0.3%.

Immediate support is at 55.30 and 55.10 levels. Intraday resistance is at 55.43 and then at 55.55 levels. Any pullback towards the resistance is ideal for selling.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 8th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_08.06.2012_xDirect India

Markets continued inspiring from risen hope of policy rate cut and positive market sentiments after PM Dr. Manmohan Singh announced a big push to the infrastructure development in the country. European and Asian markets were up too over the speculation that Central Bank will respond with stimulus measures to resolve the crisis in Spanish banks. Asian markets were positive on the expectations that China will cut key policy rates to ease growth. Overall, the world equity markets witnessed a good rally. Interest sensitive sectors – banks, infra, auto, real estate etc performed well on the expectation of rate cut in the monetary policy to be announced on June 18, 2012.

The Nifty has managed to sustain & close above the 5,000-5,020 levels which are still signifying a bullish signal. The index has strong support at 5,000 levels on the downside. There is an immediate resistance at 5,060 levels on the upside and on a close above expect rise to 5,120 & 5,140 levels. Downside support of 4978 levels (low of June 7th, 2012) should be tested if bearish trend persists 4954.2 (61.8% retracement).

However considering the equity markets will take cues from the ongoing sentiments of the global indices that has diverted towards downhill after US Federal Reserve Chairman remained silent and still resilient on increasing further stimulus in the market.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_08/06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee moved above the key 55 barrier late Thursday, hitting its strongest level in more than two weeks against the Greenback, better than expected bond auctions by Spain and France, healthy gains in the domestic stock markets and rate cut in China in late trade boosted revival in global risk sentiment. The home currency stepped up to 54.94 against the USD as compared to Wednesday’s close of 55.36. Earlier during the day it hit a high of 54.92, its strongest level since May 28.

Indian Rupee Intraday Outlook:

The Indian Rupee is expected to open with moderate losses on Friday as weakness in the Asian stocks after Bernanke comments appended by the drop in the EURUSD would impute a bearish sentiment while trading in the local currency.

The  resistance  at  55.25  (at  23.6% retracement) is witnessed following a breach would push it towards 55.40 and 55.72 levels. Support at 55.02 would be well kept; however if global markets would once again resume their risk appetite trends then lower end of the bullish channel would be tested in at 54.75.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 6th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_06.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian equity markets ended flat however the bias on the same remained on the positive bias as the speculation of quantitative easing made spillovers onto the Asian markets. The robust data on ISM figures even from the US actually made a drastic recovery towards the upside which gave enough boost to the equity markets. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex gained 32.24 points or 0.20% at 16,020.64 with 188 components registering rise. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 15.15 points or 0.31% at 4,863.30 with 30 components posting rise.
The Indian markets are likely to remain choppy as European concerns bloats up with concerns of Greece still looming in and where Moody’s downgrading German banks ahead of the EU Summit is also weighing more on the bearish front.
Nevertheless, the rally could be seen another opportunity to go on the sell-side, as there’s absence of any sort of triggers for further flow into the market. Before the RBI meet the rally towards   4800-4900 could be  a  good opportunity for another round of selling bout.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Report_06.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee once again witnessed a volatile trading session with the currency opening in the positive territory though couldn’t managed to hold on to its early gains. The home currency rise in the early part of the trading session was led by speculation the central bank will lower borrowing costs in its forthcoming monetary policy meeting, reducing the rate for the second time in 2012 to support economic growth. At the end of the day,, the INR finished at 55.64 at the spot market against Monday’s close of 55.66. The Indian stock markets too followed a similar trend wherein they opened with healthy gains tracking, however gave away most of the gains to finish modestly in the green. The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty both were higher by around 0.2% at close.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 30th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_30.5.2012-xDirect India

The initial trading on the Indian markets that opened in thee positive note, nevertheless steamed out its positive up move, as the
benchmark index closed in flat in yesterday’s session. The strength in the US Dollar persisted, where every dips in the same is turning out to be an opportunity for the traders to buy on it. Moreover the month end buying on the US Dollar from the importers has actually led further depreciation in the Indian Rupee that has choked on the positive move in the Indian markets.
The back-to-back blows on risk aversion were provided on the back of subdued US Consumer Confidence (May) that slid to 64.9 from its expectations of 70.0 moreover with fresh downgrade on Spanish Banks; the risk appetite had to dissolve among bull-traders itself.
For today the markets may remain under pressure,  however if  certain amount  of pullback on the US Dollar is witnessed then the negative verse of Nifty could be gripped eminently.

Nifty closed below the crucial 5000 mark closing marginally below the 4,990 mark. However the support is maintained at 4920 levels for the intraday and a break should enable the price action to test 4875 levels.
Resistance is maintained at 4960-4975 levels and only a close above the 5000 mark should trigger a bull rally.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_30.5.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee fell on Tuesday, breaking a three day winning streak, as stronger Dollar in the international markets coupled with Dollar demand from oil firms to meet their month end import commitments inflicted trading sentiment locally. The downtick in the Indian Stock markets from day’s high too weighed the trading momentum heavily.
Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR: The home currency is expected to trade weak today imputed by the weakness in the Euro. EURUSD trading at two year low is also putting pressure on almost all Asian markets currencies in the early morning on Wednesday. Volatility is expected to be high specifically in the afternoon trade as markets will look for fresh cues from the European markets.
A certain downside could be expected considering  the data’ss reported yesterday would be priced in; moreover some amount of profit booking could be witnessed, as the gap has been filled.
Resistance at 56.30 followed by 56.38 would be watched.
Support at 55.90 would be well kept however if we see a breach then intraday low of 55.65 would be tested.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 29th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_29th May_xDirectIndia

The Indian markets settled on a higher note yesterday, as global markets nevertheless gave in favorable cues that aided Nifty to break
above the pivotal 4,950 mark. Even though the afternoon session there some profit booking witnessed on the counter, positive movement on the European market instilled that the Indian markets remain in the positive side. Among Industrial Sectors Banking topped the performance that prompted buying in the market, where the Benchmark SENSEX added 199 points closing the day at 16416.84, meanwhile Nifty too closing above 65 points closing in at 4985.65 points.

The resistance at 4957 has been breached, where decisively has portrayed a bullish signal in the same. The resistance at 5032 followed by 5078 could be tested in coming sessions; nevertheless for today the positive moves could be a bit subdued marking the movements flat in the same.

Supports remain at levels around 4965-4940, if holds strongly then we anticipate another bout of buying may be witnessed to close above 5000 mark

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_29th May_xDirectIndia

The correction in the US Dollar seemed to have come in a good time, boosting the strength on the Rupee that pulled away from its all-time low of 56.38.
The selling on the US Dollar also came on the back of renewed appetite among traders overall that started the week with pulling away from the oversell region; however we still anticipate the trends are still uncertain and therefore the trading and movement for the week would remain flat, as media-favorite Non   Farm   Payrolls   and  US employment numbers would be in store for a trend to be showcased for the near future.

 

Intra-day Outlook

Spot USDINR:
Despite a small showdown of INR appreciation has been witnessed for the past 3 session, we still keep our bias towards upside for the pair, as the support of 54.90 would be held strongly in the spot market. The supports on the interim are seen towards 55.53 (23.60% retracement from the low of 52.668 May 8th to the recent high of 56.379 on May 24th) followed by 55.05 and then 54.90 (both resistance turned support). Today the movement would be quite as traders decide on the catalyst to decide on its next trade strategies.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 24th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

nifty_24.5.2012_xDirect India

A yet another day of liquidation in equity markets, on basis of risk aversion has taken its toll in the SENSEX that ended below 16,000 marking its lowest level since January 7th, 2012. The uncertainty on the economy has indeed choked investors, which was backed by
the Rupee depreciation. USD/INR in spot has marked its highest level ever at 56.30 amid weak global trends, where SENSEX after marking a 157 drop further added about 80 points fall in the same session, as weakness in thee net importing economy would indeed makes consumption  more expensive.
For today, perhaps some sort of respite could be provided; however we should be watchful during the European session, wherein after a freefall in these markets that recorded a 2% fall, was witnessed, due to Greek issue and failure on providing any sort decision on Summit that was held yesterday.
Today, markets could witness some buying however; if risk aversion intensifies the buying on the counter could turn out to be a huge bout of selling.
Nifty finds its immediate support at 4804, where a breach could push it lower towards 4765 (Low of May 18th). Resistance at 4850 would be well kept for today wherein only a daily close above 4940 would be considered as a meaningful correction.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_24.5.2012_xDirectIndia

The Indian Rupee continued its losing streak against the US Dollar and slipped below the psychological 56 mark on Wednesday. It plunged to an Intra-day low of 56.30, hitting a record low for the sixth straight session before finally closing at 56 levels against the USD. The fall in the Rupee persisted despite uninterrupted assurances and interventions in the currency markets by the Reserve Bank of India. Yesterday’s fall was led by demand for the Greenback from importers and banks amid rising risk aversion in the global markets. The has weakened more than 3% in the last three trading session while from its recent highs in Feb this year, the INR is down by over 23%, making its one of the most under-performing currencies amongst the globe.

Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR:
The RSI is its highest level since November 22, 2011 where constant upside has kept market to go short; however if European situation deteriorates then this would be followed by heavy selling in Euro and high yielding assets, causing US Dollar to strengthen.
For the trend we still keep our bias towards upside wherein after achieving our 1st target off 56.25. The objective remains to 56.68 for now (Both Fibonacci extensions). Supports are seen towards 55.95 and then 55.82 for today and only a daily close below 55.45 should be considered as a correction from its consistent upside.

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View on Major Currencies & Commodities 26th Dec, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY

EUR/USD: EURO on Friday on Friday which opened at 1.3050 was trading in the range of 1.3100 as resistance and support is seen at 1.3020 where range bound move as seen. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

GBP/USD: British Pound on Friday which opened at 1.5675 failed to trade above 1.5700 and after testing the lower level of 1.5585 closing was seen near days low at 1.5588 level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar on Fridays after the opening at 1.0129 was trading in the range of 1.0200 as resistance and support was seen at 1.0120 and after the range bound move trading was seen positive at 1.0148 level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar on Friday after opening at 0.7743 failed to trade above 0.7760 and on lower side it tested the level of 0.7715 where 0.7700 was support level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen on Friday after opening at 78.16 failed to trade above 78.2 and on lower side support was seen at 78 and closing was just near the support level. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic are turned negative and nearing the oversold zone and is expected to trade side way to negative after opening after the Christmas.

VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES

Gold: Gold on Friday after taking support of 1600$ as trading in the range whereon higher side it failed to cross 1615$ and support was seen at 1600$ as the International market are having holiday its expected to trading in the range where not much move is expected. Today opening was seen flat around 1605$ and is trading at 1604$ where it’s trading in the range of 1610$ resistance on closing basis and support of 1598$ on closing basis, and either side move on closing basis will confirm the trend. In short term time frame some range bound move is expected where 1620$ is resistance and 1570 will be the support level in medium term. On higher side at 1620$ is crossed will bring to 1640$, where as if its holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1540$ on lower side and further trading below 1540$ will continue the down trend on market where 1440$ will be tested in medium term. Stochastic has just popped out above the overbought zone where short room is getting generating before the next down side move which is expected if sustain trading below 1600 on closing basis.

Silver: Silver on Friday after opening at 29.06$ support as taken at 29$ and after testing the higher level of 29.42 closing was seen flat around the level of 29.05$. Today after the opening at 29.08$ trading range is expected of 29.2$ resistance and support will be seen at 29$ and sustain trading below the same will give move towards 28.8 – 28.5 immediately, as the support is holding strongly in past few trading session. Whereas further trading below 28$ will bring to 26$ – 24$ in near to medium term. On higher side only on closing basis above 30 - 31$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. Stochastic has just neared the oversold zone around 20% and is trading flat indicating if the resistance is holding and if the price trade below 28$ will bring to next support of 24$ in near term.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude on Friday after the opening at 107.79$ was trading in the range where on higher side it failed to cross the level of 108.5$ and on lower side support was seen at 107$ and closing was just positive at 107.97$. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic has near he overbought zone where some side wait and watch for the week end is advise.

Copper: Copper after the positive opening at 7455 after taking support of 4730 traded positive and tested the level of 7500 and closing was also seen at days high. Today as the European and US market are closed due to Christmas its expected to be no movement in market and will be waiting for the week to get over for next trend in market. So its advisable to stay away from the market and rather enjoy the year end. Stochastic has near he overbought zone where some side wait and watch for the week end is advise.

Report By:-
xDirect India

Nifty & USD/INR Reprt 19th December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty on Friday after testing the level of 4836 days high failed the cross the higher level of 4850 and on lower side it tested the level of 4623 which was 200 points low form the days high, where the sharp selling was seen at the last two hrs. Today as the Asian market is trading sideways to downside and it’s expected that Nifty will open -ve where on lower side will take immediate support of 4500 and sustain below 4500 will bring to 4400 to 4300 in near term, whereas on higher side its not expected to trade above 4650 and till the time its holding 4650 selling will continue in market. Today’s trading range will be 4650 resistance and support of 4450 and trading below 4580 will bring to 4500 – 4450 intraday. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4450 will open the door for 4300 to 4100 in medium term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4650. Stochastic has drifted below overbought zone and is trading towards lower zone where further selling in the price is expected in near to medium term.



VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee on Friday after the gap down opening at 53.2 per$ from the previous closing of 53.82 tested the lower level of 52.28 and closing was seen near the level of 52.8 per$. With the same RBI intervention as expected it test the level of 52.2 once and is expected reversal where again its trading above 53 where trading will move and test 53.5 – 54 again. Today opening was seen positive around 52.8 per$ where it trades above 53.1 will test 53.5 to 54 in near term. For short term rupee is expected to trade in the lower range of 52.5per$ support and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 54.5 and some consolidation move is expected. Stochastic has reverted from the higher zone with -ve  intersection and is trading at 70% zone with -ve intersection where selling can be expected in near term.

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xDirect India

View on Major Currencies & Commodities 12th Dec, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY

EUR/USD: EURO on Friday closing was seen at 1.3360 days low where on higher side it failed to cross the level of 1.3385 and was facing resistance at 1.3400 level. Today’s opening was seen at 1.3360 level and taking the higher resistance of 1.3380 is trading at 1.3342 and expect to trade negative in the range of 1.3380 and 1.3200 for the day. We are looking at some selling pressure in Euro from higher level where it’s not expected to trade above to cross 1.3400 and is expected to test 1.3200 – 1.3050 in medium terms. Stochastic which has given a down trend is nearing the mid zone below 30% moving to enter oversold zone indicating further selling to continue in near term.

GBP/USD: British Pound on Friday yesterday after opening was seen at 1.5655 traded negative and tested the lower level of 1.5630 and closing was seen at days low just near the support level of 1.5600 and in past few trading session we are looking in range bounce move with multiple support of 1.5580 on closing basis. Today the opening was seen flat around the level of 1.5645 and taking support of 1.5600 is trading at 1.5630 level and expected trading range will be 1.5750 – 1.5450. Further trading below 1.5600 will continue the down trend where 1.5500 to 1.5420 will be immediate target. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1.5725 and crossover above the same will move to test 1.5800 to 1.5900 again. Till the time 1.5725 is holding on closing basis short correction can be expected. Stochastic which were trading in mid zone with positive intersection is nearing the higher zone where some upside may be expected.

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar on Friday closing was seen at 1.0166 where on higher side resistance was faced at 1.0200 level and on lower side support was seen at 1.0150 level. Today after flat opening around 1.0166 it fails to cross the lower support of 1.0150 and is trading at 1.0180 where immediate resistance is seen at 1.0200 and if trading is seen below 1.0150 will move to test 0.9940 and 0.9900 immediately. On higher side sustain trading above immediate resistance level of 1.0300 will bring to 1.0500 level. Stochastic has given negative intersection just in the mid zone where down side move can be expected.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar on Friday after testing the lower support of 0.7635 reversals in price was seen where closing was seen at the higher level of 0.7750 levels. Today the opening was seen flat at 0.7750 and is trading negative at 0.77250 levels and trading in the range for the day where on higher side it’s not crossing 0.7780 and on lower side support is seen at days low of 0.7700 level, further trading below 0.7700 will open the door for 0.7640 to 0.7550 level in near term. We expected some range bound to down side move in market where 0.7850 is resistance and support is seen at 0.7630 and selling at rise is advice in near term. Stochastic has drifted below overbought zone where if price trade below support level correction may be seen of recent sharp rally.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen yesterday closing was seen at 77.71 after testing lower level of 77.6 where it’s trading positive and in range bound move where 78.5 was almost retested. Today opening was seen at 77.72 and is trading just above 77.65 near 77.7 levels where support is seen at 77.2 on lower side. Trading range can be seen for the day where 78.3 will be higher side resistance and support is seen at 77.2 on lower side. Stochastic has given negative intersection where side way move in price can be expected.


VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES
Gold: Gold on Friday which gave a closing near 1710$ tested the lower support of 1703$ where failed to cross the lower level of 1700$ and we have been waiting for 1680 as the support is broken. Today opening was seen flat around 1713$ and is trading at 1692$ where its trading below the support level of 1700$ and till the time 1700$ and 1705$ is holding we expect it to test 1680$ and 1660$ to be tested immediately. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1725$ where if it holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1680 and 1660$ on lower side and further trading below 1660 will continue the down trend on market where 1625 will be tested. On lower side it is expected to move further down if support of 1600 is broken and will test the lower support of 1640 to 1600$ support level in medium term. Stochastic which are trading in the mid zone is trading flat with positive intersection indicates if the resistance is holding and support are broken below 1700$ will continue to profit booking.

Silver: Silver on Friday where the lower support was taken at 31.3$ closing was seen near the days high of 32.3$ where it has been continuing it trading range of 33$ resistance and 31$ support., Today after the flat opening at 32.2$ it is trading at 31.57$ where on lower side support is taken at 31.4$ and next support is coming at 31$. If sustain trading is seen below 31.4$ will test the lower level of 31$ to 30.5$ immediately, where as only crossover above 33$ on closing basis will bring to 35$ next resistance level. On higher side only on closing basis above 35$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. On lower side immediate support is seen at 31$ where sustain trading below the same will bring to 30 to 28$ in near to medium term. Stochastic has just neared the mid zone around 40% and is trading flat indicating if the resistance is holding and if the price trade below 31$ will bring to next support of 30$ in near term.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude on Friday closing was seen at 108.7$ where on lower side support was taken at 108.3$. on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 109$ and till the time this resistance is holding we expect it to trade below 108$ and will move to test 106 – 102$ on lower side. Today after gap down opening at 1044 failed to cross the higher resistance of 109 and is trading negative at days low at 108.15$ where below 108$ is support if broken further down side move can be expected. Crossover above 109$ is must for further uptrend to continue where we wait for closing basis breakout for higher level of 115$. If sustain trading below 108$ will open the door for 105.5 to 103$ on lower side till the time 112$ is holding for the day. Stochastic is trading flat to negative in the mid zone where is turned negative and is expected to move towards the 25% where some more down side can be seen in the price in coming days.

Copper: Copper on Friday failed to cross the lower support of 7600 and reverted from 7616 and on higher side closing was seen at 7793 just below the resistance of 7800 level and its expected trading range will be 7900 resistance and support of 7600 where either side move will further confirm the trend in market. If sustain trading is seen below 7650 on closing basis will open the door for 7500 and 7300 level soon. Today we look side way to negative trend to continue where will test 7300 level soon and only if the resistance of 8000 break will continue the uptrend where it will test 8200 – 8550 level immediately. Today expected to give opening near to 7600 and expected trading range will be 7700 to 7300 where selling is advise on every rise till the time resistance is holding at 8000. Stochastic has turned negative and is just drifted below overbought zone where it is just below 70% zone where further price action will bring it towards oversold zone.

Report By
xDirect India

View on Major Currencies & Commodities 24th Nov, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY

EUR/USD: EURO yesterday which opened at 1.3516 level failed to cross the higher resistance level of 1.3550 and moved towards the lower support level of 1.3440 and further trading below the same was seen and it tested the level of 1.3320 on lower side where closing was seen at 1.3345 level. Today’s opening was seen at 1.3344 level and taking the lower support of 1.3320 is trading positive giving short bounce in market where its trading at 1.3370 and expect to trade in the range of 1.3415 and 1.3330 for the day. We are looking at some selling pressure in Euro from higher level where it’s not expected to trade above to cross 1.3450 and is expected to test 1.3350 – 1.3200 in medium terms. Stochastic which has given a down trend is nearing the lower zone below 30% moving to enter oversold zone indicating further selling to continue in near term.

 GBP/USD: British Pound yesterday after open at1.5640 level failed to move up and selling continued throughout the day where lower level was tested at 1.5490 and closing was seen at 1.5525 levels where 1.5480 was the support taken. Today the opening was seen flat around the level of 1.5525 and taking support of 1.5500 is trading at 1.5550 level and expected trading range will be 1.5600 – 1.5480. Further trading below 1.5525 will continue the down trend where 1.5480 to 1.5440 will be immediate target. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1.5570 and crossover above the same will move to test 1.5640 to 1.57000 again. Till the time 1.5700 is holding on closing basis short correction can be expected. Stochastic which were trading in oversold zone has turned negative and is trading below 20% zone where some fall in price may be expected soon

AUS/USD: Australian Dollar yesterday after the flat opening at 0.9835 failed to trade above 0.9850 level and after trading below the support of 0.9800 tested the days low of 0.9650 where support was tested at 0.9650 and closing was seen at lower level at 0.9685 level. Today after flat opening around 0.9685 it fails to cross the lower support of 0.9650 and is trading at 0.9725 where immediate resistance is seen at 0.9780 and if trading is seen below 0.9520 will move to test 0.9480 and 0.9420 in near term. On higher side sustain trading above immediate resistance level of 0.9780 will bring to 0.9860 level. Stochastic has given negative intersection just below over sold zone where down side move can be expected.

NZD/USD:  Newzeland Dollar yesterday opening was seen at 0.7470 level and tested days high of 0.7502 but later part of the session it failed to higher level and tested lower level of 0.7280 and closing was also seen near days low at 0.7395 level. Today the opening was seen at 0.7396 and is trading positive at 0.7430 level and trading in the range for the day where on higher side its not crossing 0.7460 and on lower side support is seen at days low of 0.7380 level, further trading below 0.7400 will open the door for 0.7380 to 0.7320 level in near term. We expected some range bound to down side move in market where 0.7500 is resistance and support is seen at 0.7450 and selling at rise is advice in near term. Stochastic has reentered in oversold zone and is just hovering below 20% area where negative intersection will bring further selling.

USD/JPY:  Japanese Yen yesterday closing was seen at 77.28 after testing higher level of 77.6 where it’s trading positive and in range bound move where 77.5 can be retested. Today opening was seen at 77.3 and is trading just above 77 near 77.11 level where support is seen at 76.95 on lower side. Trading range can be seen for the day where 77.2 will be higher side resistance and support is seen at 76.8 on lower side. Stochastic has given positive intersection where side way move in price can be expected.

Currency pair	Pivot	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3	Trend Index
EUR/USD	1.3360	1.3308	1.3320	1.3345	1.3380	1.3395	1.3415	Down
GBP/USD	1.5535	1.5480	1.5500	1.5525	1.5565	1.5570	1.5590	Down
AUD/USD	0.9740	0.9695	0.9715	0.9725	0.9750	0.9760	0.9770	Down
NZD/USD	0.7435	0.7400	0.7420	0.7425	0.7740	0.7750	0.7760	Down
USD/JPY	77.15	76.56	76.8	76.92	77.3	77.51	77.65	Sideway

VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES
Gold: Gold yesterday where the opening was seen flat around 1700$ failed to trade above 1710$ and after testing the resistance level moved down and tested the days low of 1677$ where support was seen at 1675$, closing was seen near the level of 1691$. Today opening was seen flat around 1691$ and is trading in the range of 1695 $ resistance and support is seen at 1685$ and either side move will further confirm the trend in market. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1710$ where if it holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1665 and 1660$ on lower side and further trading below 1660 will confirm the down trend on market. On lower side it is expected to move further down if support of 1690 is broken and will test the lower support of 1640 to 1600$ support level in medium term. Stochastic has entered in oversold zone where further price movement will confirm the trend where sustain below 20% zone will bring to 10% where lower target can be tested.


Silver: Silver in the past few trading session is trading in the wide range with lower top and lower bottom formation where on lower side recent low was posted at 30.57$ and closing was seen at 31.68$ where on higher side resistance is seen at 33$ level. Today after sideway opening at 31.7$ it is trading at 31.78$ where if sustain trading is seen below 31.5$ will test the lower level of 31$ to 30.5$ immediately, where as only crossover above 33$ will bring to 35$ next resistance level. On higher side only on closing basis above 35$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. On lower side immediate support is seen at 31$ where sustain trading below the same will bring to 30 to 28$ in near to medium term. Stochastic has just neared to the lower level below 30% nearing oversold zone where if price drift below 30$ will bring to lower level where further selling in price may be seen.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude on yesterday after opening at 108.35$ failed to trade above 109$ and tested the lower level of 106.8$ where closing was seen above 107$ at 107.1$. Today after positive opening near 107.33 failed to cross 107 and is trading at 107.38$ where some more upside is expected and may test 108$ immediately. Crossover above 110$ is must for further uptrend to continue where we wait for closing basis breakout for higher level of 117$. If sustain trading below 107$ will open the door for 106 to 102$ on lower side till the time 109$ is holding for the day. Stochastic has drifted below 20% zone is trading flat and is expected to move towards the lower zone below 10% where some more selling can be seen in the price in coming days.

Copper:  Copper yesterday after gap down opening at 7265 tested the lower support of 7110 and closing was also seen near the days low at 7218 level. If sustain trading is seen below 7200 will open the door for 7000 and 6800 level soon. Today we look side way to negative trend to continue where will test 7100 level soon and only if the resistance of 7400 break will continue the uptrend where it will test 7700 – 7750 level immediately. Today expected to give opening near to 7200 and expected trading range will be 7300 to 7100 where selling is advise on every rise till the time resistance is holding at 7600. Stochastic are trading near the oversold zone where some down side move can be expected in near term.

Commodity	Pivot	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3	Trend Index
Gold	1692	1676	1684	1689	1697	1700	1708	Down
Silver	31.74	30.85	31.3	31.6	32.05	32.2	32.65	Down
Crude	107.5	106.77	107.13	107.3	107.67	107.85	108.2	Down
Copper	7200	7040	7120	7170	7250	7280	7360	Down

Report by:
xDirect India