VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY- 20th August, 2012

EUR/USD

EUR/USD:  

We had asked all of our traders to carry forward till Monday (today) on their Short EUR/USD from 1.2375

and Target hit at 1.2290; however which has once again bounced on the upside. However we are still playing on the range and therefore would look at the same levels of resistance in order to go for short levels…however we would be looking for 1.2410/1.2415 for a breach to affirm an upside in the same. Nevertheless we would be initiating short positions at levels around 1.2380 till 1.2390 levels for its downside of 1.2330/1.2335. Only a breach below of 1.2320 would then push it lower to 1.2290 and then towards 1.2255 levels. Considering this is a Holiday with minimal data no major movement could be expected in European Session until the US session opens up, with S&P 500 still holding its resistance on the topside.

However if selling appears to be solid a break of 1.2260/1.2255 would indefinitely push it to 1.2215/1.2202 levels for

today. Nevertheless if sideways movements continue then we would be sticking on the levels instated.

Mode: SIDEWAYS Supports:: 1.2325, 1.225   5 Resistance: 1.2405, 1.2480.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD too seems to be playing range bound, however at one stage seemed quite weak after is loss  1.5685/80 levels on Friday and hence we are looking that its trends on the upside be capped till 1.5745 levels. We would be therefore looking for opportunities to go short at levels around 1.5730/1.5745 levels and would negate our downside only if the levels of 1.5752/1.5460 are breached strongly to test its next resistance at 1.5775/1.5780 levels. Therefore any upside should be seen to test 1.5730 levels to go short but should hold it strongly to test 1.5690 followed by 1.5665/60 levels.

Mode: Bearish Supports::      1.5680, 1.5655, 1.5625 Resistance: 1.5750, 1.5782

AUD/USD

AUD/USD: 

On Friday we had asked all our Traders To enter-into Long in AUD/USD at 1.0410/1.0412 levels despite our Positional Call given since August 14th at 1.0560/1.0540 levels and hence achieving our 1st objective around 1.0450/1.0440 levels. We would be covering our long Calls given on Friday over here as the Hourly Charts are well overbought but would be re-instating longs again at 1.0420/1.0408 levels. The levels of around 1.0380 is quite crucial in order to negate the bounce in AUD/USD as the break below would emancipate huge selling in the market for levels to tests 1.0330/1.0315 levels. However considering this would be a sideways day we would be exiting our long calls at 1.0450 levels and hence re-instating longs only if 1.0408 levels are held strongly.

Mode: SIDEWAYS/BEARISH    Supports:: 1.0405, 1.0378, 1.0330 Resistance: 1.0450, 1.0500, 1.0520

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VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY – 6th July, 2012

View On Major Currencies:

View On EUR/USD_xDirect India_06.07.2012

EUR/USD: The US Dollar Index rose for a second consecutive session Thursday, though this climb is still lacking for conviction (traders would use the word ‘momentum’). Taking a look at the fundamental backdrop, general risk trends tell the story. While the S&P 500 slid over the same session – boosting the greenback’s safe haven appeal – the slip follows a string of consecutive advances and did little to pull us back from a two-month high. That said, the market’s ability to hold out hope for another round of supernatural support financial support is quickly drying up. With the ECB passing up the opportunity to fortify the questionable programs trumpeted at the EU Summit, the reality of extremely low rates of return and growing threat of volatility has grown significantly brighter. Perhaps most worrisome of all for risk trends, policy authorities may be signaling their limits with a collective trend away from outright stimulus and toned-down scope of those programs actually pursued.
Mode: Bearish Supports: 1.2350, 1.2287   Resistance: 1.2433, 1.2480, 1.2525

GBP/USD: The Bank of England’s June policy decision – at which they barely avoided an increase to QE – set the stage for this week’s meeting. As expected, the group decided to increase their gilts purchases by 50 billion sterling to bring the program up to 375 billion. Yet, this is neither significantly detrimental nor encouraging to the pound. The stimulus effort by the BoE is still relatively small (compared to the Fed and ECB) and it would ultimately do little to prevent the spread of the EU crisis across the English Channel. We saw cable fell more on the ECB than BoE.
 Mode: Bearish Supports: 1.5484, 1.5450 And 1.5409 Resistance: 1.5550 and 1.5596

USD/JPY: Retail forex speculators remain extremely net-long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Japanese Yen, underlining the strength of the broader USDJPY downtrend. We would normally take a contrarian bias to retail trading crowds, and that would imply the USDJPY stands to fall further. Yet it is difficult to reconcile a US Dollar-bearish bias in light of significant developments in other USD pairs—particularly as we believe the EURUSD stands to decline further.
Since last week total long interest has fallen 13 percent while shorts are 7 percent higher. When crowds are net-long yet are no longer buying, our SSI data warns of a potential shift in trend or sideways consolidation. Our USDJPY bias is subsequently neutral in light of sentiment shifts.
Mode: Bullish Supports: 79.70, 79.55 and 78.90 Resistance: 80.20, 80.55 and 80.85



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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 23rd December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY
Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the low opening at 4671 couldn't cross the lower support of 4630 and on the higher side it tested the level of 4755 where the closing was also seen at days high. Today as the Asian market is trading positive it’s expected that Nifty will open gap up where this recent rise from the lower level of 4536 will only be the retracement of the fall from the higher level of 5131 to 4536 which is 38.2% of the fall, and if the resistance of 4765 is holding on closing basis I expect it to test the level of 4680 and 4550 before expiry. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4720 will open the door for 4550 to 4200 in medium term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4780. Its not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in near term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a- b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic are trading in the mid zone where its still showing upside move where if the price cross 4800 will enter in over bought zone where as if support is broken will become side way for further confirmation of trend.



VIEW ON RUPEE
USD/INR: Rupee yesterday after the gap up opening at 52.92 couldn't  trade above 53 and on lower side it tested the level of 52.66 where most of the trading was range bound and closing was seen near 52.77 levels. Today opening was seen sideway around 52.71 per$ where some range bound move is expected where on higher side resistance is seen at 523 per$ and on lower side support is seen at 52.55 per$ where is the support of 52.5 holds buying at dips is advise and will test 52.9 and above 53 will move to 53.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic are nearing the oversold zone and is showing sign of positive intersection where if the price move above 52.8 will give positive intersection and will move towards higher zone where some buying may be seen for higher level.

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View on Major Currencies & Commodities 24th Nov, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY

EUR/USD: EURO yesterday which opened at 1.3516 level failed to cross the higher resistance level of 1.3550 and moved towards the lower support level of 1.3440 and further trading below the same was seen and it tested the level of 1.3320 on lower side where closing was seen at 1.3345 level. Today’s opening was seen at 1.3344 level and taking the lower support of 1.3320 is trading positive giving short bounce in market where its trading at 1.3370 and expect to trade in the range of 1.3415 and 1.3330 for the day. We are looking at some selling pressure in Euro from higher level where it’s not expected to trade above to cross 1.3450 and is expected to test 1.3350 – 1.3200 in medium terms. Stochastic which has given a down trend is nearing the lower zone below 30% moving to enter oversold zone indicating further selling to continue in near term.

 GBP/USD: British Pound yesterday after open at1.5640 level failed to move up and selling continued throughout the day where lower level was tested at 1.5490 and closing was seen at 1.5525 levels where 1.5480 was the support taken. Today the opening was seen flat around the level of 1.5525 and taking support of 1.5500 is trading at 1.5550 level and expected trading range will be 1.5600 – 1.5480. Further trading below 1.5525 will continue the down trend where 1.5480 to 1.5440 will be immediate target. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1.5570 and crossover above the same will move to test 1.5640 to 1.57000 again. Till the time 1.5700 is holding on closing basis short correction can be expected. Stochastic which were trading in oversold zone has turned negative and is trading below 20% zone where some fall in price may be expected soon

AUS/USD: Australian Dollar yesterday after the flat opening at 0.9835 failed to trade above 0.9850 level and after trading below the support of 0.9800 tested the days low of 0.9650 where support was tested at 0.9650 and closing was seen at lower level at 0.9685 level. Today after flat opening around 0.9685 it fails to cross the lower support of 0.9650 and is trading at 0.9725 where immediate resistance is seen at 0.9780 and if trading is seen below 0.9520 will move to test 0.9480 and 0.9420 in near term. On higher side sustain trading above immediate resistance level of 0.9780 will bring to 0.9860 level. Stochastic has given negative intersection just below over sold zone where down side move can be expected.

NZD/USD:  Newzeland Dollar yesterday opening was seen at 0.7470 level and tested days high of 0.7502 but later part of the session it failed to higher level and tested lower level of 0.7280 and closing was also seen near days low at 0.7395 level. Today the opening was seen at 0.7396 and is trading positive at 0.7430 level and trading in the range for the day where on higher side its not crossing 0.7460 and on lower side support is seen at days low of 0.7380 level, further trading below 0.7400 will open the door for 0.7380 to 0.7320 level in near term. We expected some range bound to down side move in market where 0.7500 is resistance and support is seen at 0.7450 and selling at rise is advice in near term. Stochastic has reentered in oversold zone and is just hovering below 20% area where negative intersection will bring further selling.

USD/JPY:  Japanese Yen yesterday closing was seen at 77.28 after testing higher level of 77.6 where it’s trading positive and in range bound move where 77.5 can be retested. Today opening was seen at 77.3 and is trading just above 77 near 77.11 level where support is seen at 76.95 on lower side. Trading range can be seen for the day where 77.2 will be higher side resistance and support is seen at 76.8 on lower side. Stochastic has given positive intersection where side way move in price can be expected.

Currency pair	Pivot	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3	Trend Index
EUR/USD	1.3360	1.3308	1.3320	1.3345	1.3380	1.3395	1.3415	Down
GBP/USD	1.5535	1.5480	1.5500	1.5525	1.5565	1.5570	1.5590	Down
AUD/USD	0.9740	0.9695	0.9715	0.9725	0.9750	0.9760	0.9770	Down
NZD/USD	0.7435	0.7400	0.7420	0.7425	0.7740	0.7750	0.7760	Down
USD/JPY	77.15	76.56	76.8	76.92	77.3	77.51	77.65	Sideway

VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES
Gold: Gold yesterday where the opening was seen flat around 1700$ failed to trade above 1710$ and after testing the resistance level moved down and tested the days low of 1677$ where support was seen at 1675$, closing was seen near the level of 1691$. Today opening was seen flat around 1691$ and is trading in the range of 1695 $ resistance and support is seen at 1685$ and either side move will further confirm the trend in market. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1710$ where if it holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1665 and 1660$ on lower side and further trading below 1660 will confirm the down trend on market. On lower side it is expected to move further down if support of 1690 is broken and will test the lower support of 1640 to 1600$ support level in medium term. Stochastic has entered in oversold zone where further price movement will confirm the trend where sustain below 20% zone will bring to 10% where lower target can be tested.


Silver: Silver in the past few trading session is trading in the wide range with lower top and lower bottom formation where on lower side recent low was posted at 30.57$ and closing was seen at 31.68$ where on higher side resistance is seen at 33$ level. Today after sideway opening at 31.7$ it is trading at 31.78$ where if sustain trading is seen below 31.5$ will test the lower level of 31$ to 30.5$ immediately, where as only crossover above 33$ will bring to 35$ next resistance level. On higher side only on closing basis above 35$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. On lower side immediate support is seen at 31$ where sustain trading below the same will bring to 30 to 28$ in near to medium term. Stochastic has just neared to the lower level below 30% nearing oversold zone where if price drift below 30$ will bring to lower level where further selling in price may be seen.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude on yesterday after opening at 108.35$ failed to trade above 109$ and tested the lower level of 106.8$ where closing was seen above 107$ at 107.1$. Today after positive opening near 107.33 failed to cross 107 and is trading at 107.38$ where some more upside is expected and may test 108$ immediately. Crossover above 110$ is must for further uptrend to continue where we wait for closing basis breakout for higher level of 117$. If sustain trading below 107$ will open the door for 106 to 102$ on lower side till the time 109$ is holding for the day. Stochastic has drifted below 20% zone is trading flat and is expected to move towards the lower zone below 10% where some more selling can be seen in the price in coming days.

Copper:  Copper yesterday after gap down opening at 7265 tested the lower support of 7110 and closing was also seen near the days low at 7218 level. If sustain trading is seen below 7200 will open the door for 7000 and 6800 level soon. Today we look side way to negative trend to continue where will test 7100 level soon and only if the resistance of 7400 break will continue the uptrend where it will test 7700 – 7750 level immediately. Today expected to give opening near to 7200 and expected trading range will be 7300 to 7100 where selling is advise on every rise till the time resistance is holding at 7600. Stochastic are trading near the oversold zone where some down side move can be expected in near term.

Commodity	Pivot	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3	Trend Index
Gold	1692	1676	1684	1689	1697	1700	1708	Down
Silver	31.74	30.85	31.3	31.6	32.05	32.2	32.65	Down
Crude	107.5	106.77	107.13	107.3	107.67	107.85	108.2	Down
Copper	7200	7040	7120	7170	7250	7280	7360	Down

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