Greek's Bailout Saga - To Be or Not To Be

Deliberations about Greece’s next round of possible bailout tranche will conclude today- 20th November, 2012; wherein possible ease on pressure could be found in EUR/USD as topics on lowering the debt-ratio (amount of debt held on GDP by the economy…where lower debt is positive for the currency) or extending the dates on debts that is to be re-paid by Greece.

This meeting is fairly important as Eurozone Finance Ministers are meeting up determined in extending the amount of time that is required for bridging the gap of the deficits, which would help the reduction of these deficits by EUR 32.6 Billion till 2016; moreover delaying the decision of Greece bailout of EUR 31.5 Billion.

So why is there a high uncertainty in the market today…awaiting for results on the meeting?

Yes, out of the total EUR 164.5 Billion the IMF contribution is only just above 1/6^th of the total which is about EUR 28 Billion…however what’s important is that its not the meeting that the market is concerned about but the clash with the IMF Chief who is reluctant in extending the loan repayment deadline by 2 years. Earlier it was agreed that Greece would re-pay the debt with 4.5% as surplus on its GDP by 2014; however Euro Zone is reluctant on rigidity of IMF and it would not accept the 2014 deadline.

The Saga of trouble in Greece…

It has been confirmed by the Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras where he stated that his government will run out of money by mid-November if it fails to secure the loan installment. Now Two things remain that would result in either the EUR/USD run-up on the upside or another falter towards 1.2650 levels.

   1)  The amount of loan is required by Greece and that is for sure and therefore a positive vibe by allowing another tranche of aid by the Euro Zone could be provided there shall be no restrain by Germany which all-in-all is reluctant to provide more amounts towards its bailout program. So another round of bailout package “Which we are highly expecting” should boost EUR/USD higher.

   2)  The extension: Even though IMF maybe reluctant in extending the deadline, the EURO Zone could intervene by providing more loans (but again Germany would be reluctant in the same as it contributes the highest). So what one can expect from IMF Chief is that even though “IF” and that a BIG “if” it supports in extending the loan repayment it shall ask for additional surplus in its deficit on GDP from current 4.50%.)

   On one end IMF is unlikely for an extension with Germany and even UK reluctant in further amount of spending by the Euro Zone members…But what we anticipate is that an Extension could be achieved with a certain amount of bailout to be awarded by the Euro Zone with revised terms and conditions and thus possibly should drive the market higher…wherein they may overlook on the terms and conditions laid on it.
     




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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 12th July, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis By xDirect India

Indian equities extended intraday losses and is near day’s low as traders continued to book profits after a sharp up-move in last session and weak global cues. Brokers said reports of less than average monsoon rains this season might hamper efforts to boost economy and hurt company earnings this quarter impacted the market sentiment. The IMD said that monsoon, the life- line of Indian agriculture, has covered the entire country but rains are still deficient by 23%. Indian markets ended today`s session on a lower note on the back of weak global cues and heavy selling witnessed in auto, FMCG, realty and metal stocks.

The gap down open in the market has definitely enabled the sellers to prompt their activities considering we had yet other depressing FOMC minutes where no sign of QE was provided. This shifted the mindset of traders which now in turn are in selling activities. The immediate resistance comes in at 5290 levels followed by 5325 levels on the rising trend line (former support and now resistance). Expect selling pressure to remain at higher levels unless we have a fundamental trigger which makes the price action to close above 5320 levels, would negate the bearish bias.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis By xDirect India

The Indian Rupee extended losses on Monday falling to its lowest levels in almost a week led by weak cues across the Asian and European stocks markets and post the acute drop in the Euro on Friday which slipped to its two year lows below the 1.2300 level. Broad weakness in the domestic stock markets also put pressure on the local currency which finished with a loss of a percentage yesterday. It seems even though a slight positive reaction in the European currencies did not aid any boost to risk appetite neither towards appreciation to INR value. We therefore require a more of a fundamental trigger that would enable an upside in the same.

The USDINR pair seems to hold its daily Fibonacci support at 55.74 and if it continues to do so then we are looking at 55.92, 56.08 and then 56.14. However a break of intraday low which is also the support (Fibonacci) then 55.65 followed by 55.50 would be tested. We keep our bias on the upside.


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VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY – 6th July, 2012

View On Major Currencies:

View On EUR/USD_xDirect India_06.07.2012

EUR/USD: The US Dollar Index rose for a second consecutive session Thursday, though this climb is still lacking for conviction (traders would use the word ‘momentum’). Taking a look at the fundamental backdrop, general risk trends tell the story. While the S&P 500 slid over the same session – boosting the greenback’s safe haven appeal – the slip follows a string of consecutive advances and did little to pull us back from a two-month high. That said, the market’s ability to hold out hope for another round of supernatural support financial support is quickly drying up. With the ECB passing up the opportunity to fortify the questionable programs trumpeted at the EU Summit, the reality of extremely low rates of return and growing threat of volatility has grown significantly brighter. Perhaps most worrisome of all for risk trends, policy authorities may be signaling their limits with a collective trend away from outright stimulus and toned-down scope of those programs actually pursued.
Mode: Bearish Supports: 1.2350, 1.2287   Resistance: 1.2433, 1.2480, 1.2525

GBP/USD: The Bank of England’s June policy decision – at which they barely avoided an increase to QE – set the stage for this week’s meeting. As expected, the group decided to increase their gilts purchases by 50 billion sterling to bring the program up to 375 billion. Yet, this is neither significantly detrimental nor encouraging to the pound. The stimulus effort by the BoE is still relatively small (compared to the Fed and ECB) and it would ultimately do little to prevent the spread of the EU crisis across the English Channel. We saw cable fell more on the ECB than BoE.
 Mode: Bearish Supports: 1.5484, 1.5450 And 1.5409 Resistance: 1.5550 and 1.5596

USD/JPY: Retail forex speculators remain extremely net-long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Japanese Yen, underlining the strength of the broader USDJPY downtrend. We would normally take a contrarian bias to retail trading crowds, and that would imply the USDJPY stands to fall further. Yet it is difficult to reconcile a US Dollar-bearish bias in light of significant developments in other USD pairs—particularly as we believe the EURUSD stands to decline further.
Since last week total long interest has fallen 13 percent while shorts are 7 percent higher. When crowds are net-long yet are no longer buying, our SSI data warns of a potential shift in trend or sideways consolidation. Our USDJPY bias is subsequently neutral in light of sentiment shifts.
Mode: Bullish Supports: 79.70, 79.55 and 78.90 Resistance: 80.20, 80.55 and 80.85



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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 26th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

xDirect India's Nifty Analysis_26.06.2012

Benchmark indices ended weak erasing early gains, as investors were not impressed by the RBI’s measures to stem the rupee’s fall and the government did not announce any reforms as pledged last week. RBI enhanced the FII limit in G-Secs to $20 billion from $15 billion. It also allowed Indian companies in infrastructure to borrow through the ECB route up to $10 bn. The low amount of liquidity would obviously take away volatility and volumes which eventually turned out to be a negative session for the Nifty. Even the global markets were quite sticky with risk aversion combined with overselling kept the price movements range bound with the US Dollar just bouncing on every dips.

With the sudden drop in the market being witnessed yesterday, the government has announced today that it would take necessary steps to stem the Rupee depreciation; nevertheless these comments came in futile as global uncertainty has indeed gripped on the bull traders to resume on their trading with INR still hovering at its all-time low levels. For today we have a light on the counter from Euro Zone and UK, but US Consumer Confidence being the most important. However the Indian markets would trade sideways with supports coming in at interim levels of 5095 levels (Rising trend line). Followed by 5050 (50% retracement) and then 5023 (Falling trend line). Resistance is seen towards 5140, 5178 levels; however considering bearish trend has been commenced we believe Nifty has little chance of building momentum over 5180 levels for the week.

View on Indian Rupee

xDirect India's USD/INR Analysis_26.06.2012

The Indian Rupee gained sharply in yesterday’s trade bolstered by the expectations of big-bang policy measures from the Government of India and the RBI. The Rupee opened sharply higher and continued rising to make a high near the 56.3750 level. Though it weakened from day’s high and ended at 57.01 to the US Dollar after the measures  introduced by the RBI disappointed markets.

The main step announced was to increase in the cap on foreign investment in Indian government debt  to  $20  billion  from  $15  billion.  The government also reduced the minimum period investors need to hold some bonds to three years from five years, making them more attractive to foreign funds.

The Indian Rupee is expected to trade in a tight spot where in, where on the upside the resistance is seen towards 57.42 (Fibonacci extension) followed by 57.65 levels. Supports come in at 56.40 (yesterday session low). There might be some sort of positives seen in the market considering the constant selling but we believe the bear trend would resume considering the ill-liquid FOMC state,, followed by the multiple downgrades. For today however we would want the US Consumer Confidence to give some amount of boost as yesterday’s housing sales marked good numbers, its best in 3 years.

For today the market is expected to be range bound however, where European session may mark some amount of swings in the global market which may give certain movement in the currency pair.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report- 21st June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_21.06.2012_xDirect India

The choppy but somewhat positive movements in yesterday’s global market have indeed given Indian equity markets the required boost. Nevertheless the swings on both ends were provided by the fundamental trigger given by Bank of England that apparently chose to boost the stimulus regime in the economy which indeed is required for to boost the banking sector in the region. However the bets on QE kept on rising till the end of Indian markets that managed to close in the positive. The positive terrain was led by the sectors in Metals, Capital Goods, healthcare and Automotives.

Today however as the QE bets faded some amount of pressure could be eased for the markets to look forward to the negative side of the global economic scenario. Where as they have factored on the QE it is now to look forward to the fundamental triggers from the Euro Zone end, while today market has opened slightly on the flat note further swings would be provided by the reaction in the European markets.

The immediate support on Nifty comes in at 5080 levels (50% retracement) and only a breach of this would threaten in another bout of selling in the counter, where the support levels would be followed in by 5043 (falling trend line). Resistance comes in at 5140 levels and if the levels close in anywhere around or over it then we would change our bias to positive on the same, where the price action played in within the confines of this levels then it would be range -bound play.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_21.06.2012_xDirect Ind

The Indian Rupee closed in the negative as despite the Indian equities managing to close in the positive did not provide the necessary boost to Indian Rupee that closed lower against the US Dollar.
Amongst other major news in the domestic markets, rating agency Fitch revised the outlook of a no. of major Indian banks including SBI, PNB, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, IDBI Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, EXIM Bank of India among others.

In the global space, the major US Federal Reserve meeting ended yesterday wherein the Central bank kept its interest rates on hold and extend its so called Bond buying program named Operation Twist towards the end of this year. The Fed said it will prolong the program and expects to sell $267 Billion of shorter-term securities and buying the same amount of longer- term debt in a bid to cut borrowing costs and spur thee economy. Both the moves were widely anticipated by thee markets and couldn’t spur any kind of positivism.

Today technically the Spot USD/INR is at a standpoint of either breaking the resistance of 56.42 therefore marking a new highh towards 57.00 levels, or holding those levels that would be only be possible for a string of positive data’s to tests its intraday low of 56.10 and even though this level would be considered for initiating a buy we would recommend to ponder on the European & US equity markets that would break the levels of 56.10 to test lower levels of 55.80 to 55.70.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 15th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_15.06.2012_xDirect India

Indian markets dropped over 1% on Thursday on concern the higher than expected inflation will reduce possibility of aggressive monetary easing by the RBI on June 18. The WPI inflation for the month of May rose to 7.55% as against the previous month`s figure of 7.23% and previous year`s corresponding month`s figure of 9.56%. Moreover the March inflation was revised upwards from 6.89% provisional to 7.69%. Weak European markets further intensified the selling pressure. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex declined 202.63 points or 1.20% at 16,677.88 with 26 components posting drop. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty went down by 66.70 points or 1.30% at 5,054.75 with 44 components posting drop. Market is expected to open on positive note and likely to remain range bound ahead of Greece election on Sunday. More Americans applied for jobless benefits and consumer prices dropped by the most in three years, giving the Federa Reserve room to spur an economy that’s generating little growth or inflation. Claims for unemployment insurance payments unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9, Laborr Department figures showed in Washington.

Outlook for today Nifty has an immediate resistance at 5,090-5,100 levels; on a decisive close above expect rise to 5,140 & 5,180 levels. However with early Asian markets in the positive we expect the markets too would perform in a likewise manner moreover with INR appreciating would give out further confidence to the Indian equity overall. We therefore would like to initiate a buy at 5082 (former resistance and now support) for the target of 5150 levels. Stop Loss to be placed at 5045 (previous session low).

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_ 15.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian rupee gains v/s the US dollar on Friday on the back of firm move in the domestic share market. On Friday, the rupee suffered from falls in global risk assets on the back of the lack of clarity on potential U.S. monetary stimulus, worries China will post weak data on Saturday, and concerns about Spanish banking woes.
Today, the sentiment is positive in the global market with stock markets, the euro and oil rallied after less bad Chinese data then expected along with a Spain’s bank bailout. The market welcomed the weekend news that Spain secured a EUR100 billion ($125 billion) loan to bolster its banking system, which makes the country the fourth and largest Euro Zone economy to be rescued by its euro-zone partners.
On Saturday, China released economic data which showed a weakening economy, but was not as bad as some expected. The PBoC made a surprise cut to interest rates ahead of the data, which was taken as a signal by the market that May’s figures were going to be very bad. As per data, China’s trade surplus was $18.7bn in May, a touch bigger than its $18.4bn surplus in April. Industrial production nudged up to a 9.6 per cent rise from 9.3 per cent in April. Inflation receded to 3.0 per cent year-on-year in May, the lowest in two years and down from 3.4 per cent in April. Today, the Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.1% and Korea’s Kospi was 1.7% higher. Singapore’s Strait Times Index rose 1.5% and the China Shanghai Composite was up 0.3%.

Immediate support is at 55.30 and 55.10 levels. Intraday resistance is at 55.43 and then at 55.55 levels. Any pullback towards the resistance is ideal for selling.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report, 11th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_11.06.2012_xDirect India

The downside on the Indian equity markets was capped and moreover also sentiments in the global markets aided the Nifty to end the week on a higher note, wherever an upside was witnessed to its biggest levels since March end-April beginning week.  Investors in the equity market seem to discount the factors of a rate cut by the RBI, which was also coupled with solid gains on the infrastructure sectors as PM meets other cabinet ministers to plan out an action initiating developments in infra region.
The 30-share index, Sensex surged 753.71 points, or 4.72% to 16,718.87 for the week ended June 8, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty added 226.75 points, or 4.68%, to 5,068.35 during the week.
The Friday’s close ended the price action over and above the 5070 mark, which has now aided the price to open gap-up on the back of strong export figures and revived improved levels in imports, which has lifted market sentiments that world’s largest consumer has regained composure. Moreover the conference call among Euro Zone Finance Ministers also decided to provide bailout package to Spanish Banks.

Today we expect the positive note continue furthermore on the back of a follow through on the positive news from China and Euro Zone. Opening above 5084 mark (50% retracement) would now turn out as its support levels followed by 5060- 5070. The price action is poised to touch 5150 levels in today’s session followed by 5178 (Horizontal line resistance)

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_11.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian rupee lost v/s the US dollar on Friday despite firm move in the domestic share market. On Friday, the rupee suffered from falls in global risk assets on the back of the lackk of clarity on potential U.S. monetary stimulus, worries China will post weak data on Saturday, and concerns about Spanish banking woes.
Today, the sentiment is positive in the global market with stock markets, the euro and oil rallied after less bad Chinese data then expected along with a Spain’s bank bailout. The market welcomed the weekend news that Spain secured a EUR100 billion ($125 billion) loan to bolster its banking system, which makes the country the fourth and largest Euro Zone economy to be rescued by its euro-zone partners.
On Saturday, China released economic data which showed a weakening economy, but was not as bad as some expected. The PBoC made a surprise cut to interest rates ahead of the data, which was taken as a signal by the market that May’s figures were going to be very bad. As per data, China’s trade surplus was $18.7bn in May, a touch bigger than its $18.4bn surplus in April. Industrial production nudged up to a 9.6 per cent rise from 9.3 per cent in April. Inflation receded to 3.0 per cent year-on on-year in May, the lowest in two years and down from 3.4 per cent in April. Today, the Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.1% and Korea’s Kospi was 1.7% higher. Singapore’s Strait Times Index rose 1.5% and the China Shanghai Composite was up 0.3%.

Immediate support is at 55.30 and 55.10 levels. Intraday resistance is at 55.43 and then at 55.55 levels. Any pullback towards the resistance is ideal for selling.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 7th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

 India’s benchmark indices rose 2.7% on Wed, posting their biggest daily percentage gain since early January 2012 that was boosted by hopes of a rate cut by the RBI. Expectations that the ECB will announce more stimulus measures to resolve Euro Zone’s financial problems also contributed to the gains in global markets.

Market has moved upp in the expectation of policy actions both at India and International levels. We anticipate market may test resistance at around 5050-5075 and will need actual policy actions from various governments to cross this level.
Market  sentiments  were  positive on  the announcement from the European Central Bank issuing a schedule for an additional long term refinancing operation (LTRO) as insurance against further flight of banks accounts in Europe. Rising hope of policy rate cut by RBI, expected positive outcome from upcoming realty and construction sector also moved on the back of cuts in rates from the RBI.

Nifty has breached the resistance of 4965 levels, where decisively it portrays a bullish pattern. Only a further trigger should bee provided from various governments in order for a clean upside rally in the equity markets. Index is likely to cross 5,000 mark to test levels at 5,060 followed by 5,120 levels. As positions on net buyers have increased the support of 4960 should be labeled as an opportunity to go long, a break of which 4938 should be held as intraday support. Nevertheless the breach of the same should negate the bullish sentiments across the market.

View On Indian Rupee

USD/INR_07.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee advanced for the third straight session against the Greenback led by improving risk appetite amidst increasing hopes of stimulus from larger economies. Gains in the domestic stock markets too aided the strength in the local currency which has been able to stay well above the record low of 56.52 hit on last Thursday.

Yesterday, the partially convertible Rupee ended at 55.36 to the USD after trading in a range between 55.61 on the upside to 55.15 on the downside and ended the day at 55.35.
The Indian Rupee is expected to trade positively today, tracking the strong gains in the Asian stocks and the uptick in the Euro which pushing the Dollar index lower. Nevertheless a rate cut from RBI should actually pave for depreciation in Indian Rupee; however as equity markets rally’s across the board the depreciation would be negated by boosting the strength in the Indian Rupee.

As London session begins we expect a further upside in the Indian rupee, where the USDINR would be poised to test the lower end of the bull trend channel at 54.80 levels and only a breach and close below it should provide leeway for 54.35 levels (horizontal line support coupled with June1st low). On the resistance front, yesterday’s high of 55.61 should negate the downside in the pair and should be considered as intraday upper resistance.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 6th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_06.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian equity markets ended flat however the bias on the same remained on the positive bias as the speculation of quantitative easing made spillovers onto the Asian markets. The robust data on ISM figures even from the US actually made a drastic recovery towards the upside which gave enough boost to the equity markets. At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex gained 32.24 points or 0.20% at 16,020.64 with 188 components registering rise. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 15.15 points or 0.31% at 4,863.30 with 30 components posting rise.
The Indian markets are likely to remain choppy as European concerns bloats up with concerns of Greece still looming in and where Moody’s downgrading German banks ahead of the EU Summit is also weighing more on the bearish front.
Nevertheless, the rally could be seen another opportunity to go on the sell-side, as there’s absence of any sort of triggers for further flow into the market. Before the RBI meet the rally towards   4800-4900 could be  a  good opportunity for another round of selling bout.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Report_06.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee once again witnessed a volatile trading session with the currency opening in the positive territory though couldn’t managed to hold on to its early gains. The home currency rise in the early part of the trading session was led by speculation the central bank will lower borrowing costs in its forthcoming monetary policy meeting, reducing the rate for the second time in 2012 to support economic growth. At the end of the day,, the INR finished at 55.64 at the spot market against Monday’s close of 55.66. The Indian stock markets too followed a similar trend wherein they opened with healthy gains tracking, however gave away most of the gains to finish modestly in the green. The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty both were higher by around 0.2% at close.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 30th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_30.5.2012-xDirect India

The initial trading on the Indian markets that opened in thee positive note, nevertheless steamed out its positive up move, as the
benchmark index closed in flat in yesterday’s session. The strength in the US Dollar persisted, where every dips in the same is turning out to be an opportunity for the traders to buy on it. Moreover the month end buying on the US Dollar from the importers has actually led further depreciation in the Indian Rupee that has choked on the positive move in the Indian markets.
The back-to-back blows on risk aversion were provided on the back of subdued US Consumer Confidence (May) that slid to 64.9 from its expectations of 70.0 moreover with fresh downgrade on Spanish Banks; the risk appetite had to dissolve among bull-traders itself.
For today the markets may remain under pressure,  however if  certain amount  of pullback on the US Dollar is witnessed then the negative verse of Nifty could be gripped eminently.

Nifty closed below the crucial 5000 mark closing marginally below the 4,990 mark. However the support is maintained at 4920 levels for the intraday and a break should enable the price action to test 4875 levels.
Resistance is maintained at 4960-4975 levels and only a close above the 5000 mark should trigger a bull rally.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_30.5.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee fell on Tuesday, breaking a three day winning streak, as stronger Dollar in the international markets coupled with Dollar demand from oil firms to meet their month end import commitments inflicted trading sentiment locally. The downtick in the Indian Stock markets from day’s high too weighed the trading momentum heavily.
Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR: The home currency is expected to trade weak today imputed by the weakness in the Euro. EURUSD trading at two year low is also putting pressure on almost all Asian markets currencies in the early morning on Wednesday. Volatility is expected to be high specifically in the afternoon trade as markets will look for fresh cues from the European markets.
A certain downside could be expected considering  the data’ss reported yesterday would be priced in; moreover some amount of profit booking could be witnessed, as the gap has been filled.
Resistance at 56.30 followed by 56.38 would be watched.
Support at 55.90 would be well kept however if we see a breach then intraday low of 55.65 would be tested.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 24th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

nifty_24.5.2012_xDirect India

A yet another day of liquidation in equity markets, on basis of risk aversion has taken its toll in the SENSEX that ended below 16,000 marking its lowest level since January 7th, 2012. The uncertainty on the economy has indeed choked investors, which was backed by
the Rupee depreciation. USD/INR in spot has marked its highest level ever at 56.30 amid weak global trends, where SENSEX after marking a 157 drop further added about 80 points fall in the same session, as weakness in thee net importing economy would indeed makes consumption  more expensive.
For today, perhaps some sort of respite could be provided; however we should be watchful during the European session, wherein after a freefall in these markets that recorded a 2% fall, was witnessed, due to Greek issue and failure on providing any sort decision on Summit that was held yesterday.
Today, markets could witness some buying however; if risk aversion intensifies the buying on the counter could turn out to be a huge bout of selling.
Nifty finds its immediate support at 4804, where a breach could push it lower towards 4765 (Low of May 18th). Resistance at 4850 would be well kept for today wherein only a daily close above 4940 would be considered as a meaningful correction.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_24.5.2012_xDirectIndia

The Indian Rupee continued its losing streak against the US Dollar and slipped below the psychological 56 mark on Wednesday. It plunged to an Intra-day low of 56.30, hitting a record low for the sixth straight session before finally closing at 56 levels against the USD. The fall in the Rupee persisted despite uninterrupted assurances and interventions in the currency markets by the Reserve Bank of India. Yesterday’s fall was led by demand for the Greenback from importers and banks amid rising risk aversion in the global markets. The has weakened more than 3% in the last three trading session while from its recent highs in Feb this year, the INR is down by over 23%, making its one of the most under-performing currencies amongst the globe.

Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR:
The RSI is its highest level since November 22, 2011 where constant upside has kept market to go short; however if European situation deteriorates then this would be followed by heavy selling in Euro and high yielding assets, causing US Dollar to strengthen.
For the trend we still keep our bias towards upside wherein after achieving our 1st target off 56.25. The objective remains to 56.68 for now (Both Fibonacci extensions). Supports are seen towards 55.95 and then 55.82 for today and only a daily close below 55.45 should be considered as a correction from its consistent upside.

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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 23rd December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY
Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the low opening at 4671 couldn't cross the lower support of 4630 and on the higher side it tested the level of 4755 where the closing was also seen at days high. Today as the Asian market is trading positive it’s expected that Nifty will open gap up where this recent rise from the lower level of 4536 will only be the retracement of the fall from the higher level of 5131 to 4536 which is 38.2% of the fall, and if the resistance of 4765 is holding on closing basis I expect it to test the level of 4680 and 4550 before expiry. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4720 will open the door for 4550 to 4200 in medium term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4780. Its not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4800 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in near term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a- b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic are trading in the mid zone where its still showing upside move where if the price cross 4800 will enter in over bought zone where as if support is broken will become side way for further confirmation of trend.



VIEW ON RUPEE
USD/INR: Rupee yesterday after the gap up opening at 52.92 couldn't  trade above 53 and on lower side it tested the level of 52.66 where most of the trading was range bound and closing was seen near 52.77 levels. Today opening was seen sideway around 52.71 per$ where some range bound move is expected where on higher side resistance is seen at 523 per$ and on lower side support is seen at 52.55 per$ where is the support of 52.5 holds buying at dips is advise and will test 52.9 and above 53 will move to 53.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic are nearing the oversold zone and is showing sign of positive intersection where if the price move above 52.8 will give positive intersection and will move towards higher zone where some buying may be seen for higher level.

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View on Major Currencies & Commodities 19th Dec, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY


EUR/USD: EURO on Friday was trading I the range of 1.2995 lower supports and on higher side resistance was seen at 1.3085 and closing was flat to positive at 1.3035 level. Today’s opening was seen at 1.3030 level and taking the higher resistance of 1.3050 is trading at 1.3000 and expect to trade negative in the range of 1.3050 and 1.2800 for the day. We are looking at some selling pressure in Euro from higher level where it’s not expected to trade above and cross 1.3150 and is expected to test 1.2800 in medium terms. Stochastic which has given a down trend is nearing the mid zone below 30% moving to enter oversold zone indicating further selling to continue in near term.

GBP/USD: British Pound on Friday was trading in the range of 1.5480 lower side support and resistance was seen at 1.5555 level. Today the opening was seen flat around the level of 1.5225 and taking support of 1.5460 is trading at 1.5490 level and expected trading range will be 1.5550 – 1.5400. Further trading below 1.5450 will continue the down trend where 1.5400 to 1.5350 will be immediate target. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1.5550 and crossover above the same will move to test 1.5800 to 1.5900 again. Till the time 1.5550 is holding on closing basis short correction can be expected. Stochastic which were trading in mid zone with positive intersection is nearing the higher zone where some upside may be expected.

AUS/USD: Australian Dollar on Friday which open at 0.9980 failed totrade below 0.9890 and after testing the higher level of 1.0025 clsoing was seen at 0.9965 level. Today after positive opening around 0.9986 it fails to cross higher resistance of 1.0000 and is trading at 0.9920 where immediate resistance is seen at 0.9950 and if trading is seen below 0.9900 will move to test 0.9840 and 0.9800 immediately. On higher side sustain trading above immediate resistance level of 0.9980 will bring to 1.0100 level. Stochastic has given negative intersection just in the mid zone where down side move can be expected.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar on Friday opening at 0.7527 failed to trade below 0.7500 and after testing the higher level of 0.7650 closing was seen at 0.7600 level. Today the opening was seen positive at 0.7635 taking support of 0.7570 it is trading at 0.7595 level where on higher side resistance is seen at 0.7650 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is expected and will test 0.7440 to 0.7350 in near term. We expected some range bound to down side move in market where 0.7500 is resistance and support is seen at 0.73500 and selling at rise is advice in near term. Stochastic has drifted below overbought zone where if price trade below support level correction may be seen of recent sharp rally.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen yesterday closing was seen at 77.97 after testing lower level of 77.62 where it’s trading positive and in range bound move where 78.5 was almost retested. Today opening was seen at 77.9 and is trading just above 77.65 near 77.86 levels where support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Trading range can be seen for the day where 78.3 will be higher side resistance and support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Stochastic has given positive intersection where side way move in price can be expected.

VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES


Gold: Gold on Friday after the opening at 1605 failed to trade below1570$ and reversal in price was seen and after testing the days high of 1601$ closing was seen at 1597$ which was just below the resistance level of 1600$. Today opening was seen positive around 1602$ and is trading at 1588$ where it’s trading near the support level of 1580$ and till the time 1600$ is holding we expect it to test 1550$ and 1540$ to be tested immediately. On higher side at 1600$ where if it holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1540$ on lower side and further trading below 1540$ will continue the down trend on market where 1470$ will be tested. Stochastic has entered in the oversold zone and is still moving down side where if the support level is crossed will further move lower and will indicate down trend to continue.

Silver: Silver on Friday which opened at 29.25$ tested the lower level of 29.08 where it failed to cross the lower level of 29 and reversal in price were seen where it tested the higher level of 29.89 and closing was also seen at 29.62$ just facing resistance at 30$. Today after the flat opening at 28.9$ it is trading at 28.5$ where on lower side support is taken at 28 $ and next support is coming at 26$. If sustain trading is seen below 28$ will test the lower level of 26$ to 24$ immediately, where as only crossover above 31$ on closing basis will bring to 35$ next resistance level. On higher side only on closing basis above 31$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. Stochastic has just neared the oversold zone around 20% and is trading flat indicating if the resistance is holding and if the price trade below 28$ will bring to next support of 24$ in near term.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude on Friday where the positive opening was seen at 104.23$ from the previous closing of 103.2$ after testing the fresh low of 102.4$ reversal in price were seen and closing was seen at 103.74 after testing the days high of 104.52$. Today after gap down opening at 102.87 failed to cross the higher resistance of 103 and is trading at 102.6 $ where below 102.4$ is support if broken further down side move can be expected. Crossover above 105$ is must for further uptrend to continue where we wait for closing basis breakout for higher level of 111$. If sustain trading below 102.5$ will open the door for 101 to 98$ on lower side till the time 105$ is holding for the day. Stochastic is trading flat to negative in the mid zone where is turned negative and is expected to move towards the 25% where some more down side can be seen in the price in coming days.

Copper: Copper yesterday after the gap up opening at 7307 tested the higher resistance of 7400 and closing was seen flat around the level of 7300 where on lower side support was seen at 7260 level. Today we look side way to negative trend to continue where will test 7250 level soon and only if the resistance of 7400 break will continue the uptrend where it will test 7150 – 7450 level immediately. Today expected to give opening near to 7250 and expected trading range will be 7600 to 7300 where selling is advise on every rise till the time resistance is holding at 8000. Stochastic has turned negative and is just drifted below overbought zone where it is just below 20% zone where further price action will bring it towards oversold zone.

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xDirect India

View on Major Currencies & Commodities 14th Dec, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY

EUR/USD: EURO yesterday after the opening was seen at 1.3170 failed to trade above 1.3200 and after crossing the lower support of 1.3160 it gave further selling where on lower side it tested the level of 1.3008 just testing support of 1.3000 and closing was seen at 1.3033 at days low. Today’s opening was seen at 1.3033 level and taking the lower support of 1.3000 is trading at 1.3045 and expect to trade negative in the range of 1.3100 and 1.2900 for the day. We are looking at some selling pressure in Euro from higher level where it’s not expected to trade above and cross 1.3250 and is expected to test 1.3050 in medium terms. Stochastic which has given a down trend is nearing the mid zone below 30% moving to enter oversold zone indicating further selling to continue in near term.

GBP/USD: British Pound yesterday after the opening at 1.5580 failed to trade above 1.5650 and later part of trading session it tested the lower level of 1.5445 and closing was seen at 1.5480 level. Today the opening was seen flat around the level of 1.5480 and taking support of 1.5450 is trading at 1.5490 level and expected trading range will be 1.5550 – 1.5400. Further trading below 1.5450 will continue the down trend where 1.5400 to 1.5350 will be immediate target. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1.5550 and crossover above the same will move to test 1.5800 to 1.5900 again. Till the time 1.5550 is holding on closing basis short correction can be expected. Stochastic which were trading in mid zone with positive intersection is nearing the higher zone where some upside may be expected.

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar yesterday after the opening at 1.0070 level failed to sustain above 1.0200 level and closing was seen at 1.0015 where days low was posted at 0.9977 previous days low was seen. Today after flat opening around 1.0015 it fails to cross the lower support of 0.9980 and is trading at 1.0025 where immediate resistance is seen at 1.0080 and if trading is seen below 1.0010 will move to test 0.9940 and 0.9900 immediately. On higher side sustain trading above immediate resistance level of 1.0250 will bring to 1.0500 level. Stochastic has given negative intersection just in the mid zone where down side move can be expected.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar yesterday after the opening at 0.7625 failed to trade above 0.7670 and after crossing the lower support of 0.7600 it tested the lower level of 0.7550 support and closing was seen at 0.7566 level. Today the opening was seen flat at 0.7565 taking support of 0.7530 it is trading at 0.7565 level where on higher side resistance is seen at 0.7600 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is expected and will test 0.7480 to 0.7400 in near term. We expected some range bound to down side move in market where 0.7700 is resistance and support is seen at 0.7500 and selling at rise is advice in near term. Stochastic has drifted below overbought zone where if price trade below support level correction may be seen of recent sharp rally.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen yesterday closing was seen at 77.97 after testing lower level of 77.62 where it’s trading positive and in range bound move where 78.5 was almost retested. Today opening was seen at 77.9 and is trading just above 77.65 near 77.86 levels where support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Trading range can be seen for the day where 78.3 will be higher side resistance and support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Stochastic has given positive intersection where side way move in price can be expected.

VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES

Gold: Gold yesterday after the opening at 1666$ failed to trade above 1680$ and after crossing the support level of 1655$ it tested the level of 1622$ and closing was also seen near the lower level of 1620$. Today opening was seen flat around 1630$ and is trading at 1637$ where its trading below the support level of 1625$ and till the time 1655$ is holding we expect it to test 1600$ and 1580$ to be tested immediately. On higher side at 1655$ where if it holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1605$ on lower side and further trading below 1600$ will continue the down trend on market where 1550$ will be tested. Stochastic has entered in the oversold zone and is still moving down side where if the support level is crossed will further move lower and will indicate down trend to continue.

Silver: Silver yesterday after opening at 31.2$ continued to down trend where on higher side it resistance was seen at 32$ and after crossing the level of 31 it moved and tested the lower level of 30.4$ and closing was just above the support level of 30.5$ around 30.7$. Today after the flat opening at 30.75$ it is trading at 30.9$ where on lower side support is taken at 30.5 $ and next support is coming at 30$. If sustain trading is seen below 31$ will test the lower level of 30.4$ to 30$ immediately, where as only crossover above 33$ on closing basis will bring to 35$ next resistance level. On higher side only on closing basis above 35$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. On lower side immediate support is seen at 31$ where sustain trading below the same will bring to 30 to 28$ in near to medium term. Stochastic has just neared the mid zone around 40% and is trading flat indicating if the resistance is holding and if the price trade below 31$ will bring to next support of 30$ in near term.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude yesterday after sideway opening at 107.11$ and failed to cross the lower support of 107$ and trading was seen positive where on lower side it tested the higher level of 111$ and closing was also seen at 109.4$. Today after gap down opening at 108.5 failed to cross the higher resistance of 109.5 and is trading at 108.7$ where below 108.5$ is support if broken further down side move can be expected. Crossover above 110$ is must for further uptrend to continue where we wait for closing basis breakout for higher level of 115$. If sustain trading below 107$ will open the door for 105.5 to 103$ on lower side till the time 112$ is holding for the day. Stochastic is trading flat to negative in the mid zone where is turned negative and is expected to move towards the 25% where some more down side can be seen in the price in coming days.

Copper: Copper yesterday after the Flat opening at 7580 @ traded below the support level of 7550 and tested the low of 7500 and closing was just seen near 7533 level where immediate support is seen at 7500. If sustain trading is seen below 7500 on closing basis will open the door for 7400 and 7300 level soon. Today we look side way to negative trend to continue where will test 7300 level soon and only if the resistance of 7700 break will continue the uptrend where it will test 8200 – 8550 level immediately. Today expected to give opening near to 7500 and expected trading range will be 7600 to 7300 where selling is advise on every rise till the time resistance is holding at 8000. Stochastic has turned negative and is just drifted below overbought zone where it is just below 70% zone where further price action will bring it towards oversold zone.

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xDirect India

View on Major Currencies & Commodities 12th Dec, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY

EUR/USD: EURO on Friday closing was seen at 1.3360 days low where on higher side it failed to cross the level of 1.3385 and was facing resistance at 1.3400 level. Today’s opening was seen at 1.3360 level and taking the higher resistance of 1.3380 is trading at 1.3342 and expect to trade negative in the range of 1.3380 and 1.3200 for the day. We are looking at some selling pressure in Euro from higher level where it’s not expected to trade above to cross 1.3400 and is expected to test 1.3200 – 1.3050 in medium terms. Stochastic which has given a down trend is nearing the mid zone below 30% moving to enter oversold zone indicating further selling to continue in near term.

GBP/USD: British Pound on Friday yesterday after opening was seen at 1.5655 traded negative and tested the lower level of 1.5630 and closing was seen at days low just near the support level of 1.5600 and in past few trading session we are looking in range bounce move with multiple support of 1.5580 on closing basis. Today the opening was seen flat around the level of 1.5645 and taking support of 1.5600 is trading at 1.5630 level and expected trading range will be 1.5750 – 1.5450. Further trading below 1.5600 will continue the down trend where 1.5500 to 1.5420 will be immediate target. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1.5725 and crossover above the same will move to test 1.5800 to 1.5900 again. Till the time 1.5725 is holding on closing basis short correction can be expected. Stochastic which were trading in mid zone with positive intersection is nearing the higher zone where some upside may be expected.

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar on Friday closing was seen at 1.0166 where on higher side resistance was faced at 1.0200 level and on lower side support was seen at 1.0150 level. Today after flat opening around 1.0166 it fails to cross the lower support of 1.0150 and is trading at 1.0180 where immediate resistance is seen at 1.0200 and if trading is seen below 1.0150 will move to test 0.9940 and 0.9900 immediately. On higher side sustain trading above immediate resistance level of 1.0300 will bring to 1.0500 level. Stochastic has given negative intersection just in the mid zone where down side move can be expected.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar on Friday after testing the lower support of 0.7635 reversals in price was seen where closing was seen at the higher level of 0.7750 levels. Today the opening was seen flat at 0.7750 and is trading negative at 0.77250 levels and trading in the range for the day where on higher side it’s not crossing 0.7780 and on lower side support is seen at days low of 0.7700 level, further trading below 0.7700 will open the door for 0.7640 to 0.7550 level in near term. We expected some range bound to down side move in market where 0.7850 is resistance and support is seen at 0.7630 and selling at rise is advice in near term. Stochastic has drifted below overbought zone where if price trade below support level correction may be seen of recent sharp rally.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen yesterday closing was seen at 77.71 after testing lower level of 77.6 where it’s trading positive and in range bound move where 78.5 was almost retested. Today opening was seen at 77.72 and is trading just above 77.65 near 77.7 levels where support is seen at 77.2 on lower side. Trading range can be seen for the day where 78.3 will be higher side resistance and support is seen at 77.2 on lower side. Stochastic has given negative intersection where side way move in price can be expected.


VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES
Gold: Gold on Friday which gave a closing near 1710$ tested the lower support of 1703$ where failed to cross the lower level of 1700$ and we have been waiting for 1680 as the support is broken. Today opening was seen flat around 1713$ and is trading at 1692$ where its trading below the support level of 1700$ and till the time 1700$ and 1705$ is holding we expect it to test 1680$ and 1660$ to be tested immediately. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1725$ where if it holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1680 and 1660$ on lower side and further trading below 1660 will continue the down trend on market where 1625 will be tested. On lower side it is expected to move further down if support of 1600 is broken and will test the lower support of 1640 to 1600$ support level in medium term. Stochastic which are trading in the mid zone is trading flat with positive intersection indicates if the resistance is holding and support are broken below 1700$ will continue to profit booking.

Silver: Silver on Friday where the lower support was taken at 31.3$ closing was seen near the days high of 32.3$ where it has been continuing it trading range of 33$ resistance and 31$ support., Today after the flat opening at 32.2$ it is trading at 31.57$ where on lower side support is taken at 31.4$ and next support is coming at 31$. If sustain trading is seen below 31.4$ will test the lower level of 31$ to 30.5$ immediately, where as only crossover above 33$ on closing basis will bring to 35$ next resistance level. On higher side only on closing basis above 35$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. On lower side immediate support is seen at 31$ where sustain trading below the same will bring to 30 to 28$ in near to medium term. Stochastic has just neared the mid zone around 40% and is trading flat indicating if the resistance is holding and if the price trade below 31$ will bring to next support of 30$ in near term.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude on Friday closing was seen at 108.7$ where on lower side support was taken at 108.3$. on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 109$ and till the time this resistance is holding we expect it to trade below 108$ and will move to test 106 – 102$ on lower side. Today after gap down opening at 1044 failed to cross the higher resistance of 109 and is trading negative at days low at 108.15$ where below 108$ is support if broken further down side move can be expected. Crossover above 109$ is must for further uptrend to continue where we wait for closing basis breakout for higher level of 115$. If sustain trading below 108$ will open the door for 105.5 to 103$ on lower side till the time 112$ is holding for the day. Stochastic is trading flat to negative in the mid zone where is turned negative and is expected to move towards the 25% where some more down side can be seen in the price in coming days.

Copper: Copper on Friday failed to cross the lower support of 7600 and reverted from 7616 and on higher side closing was seen at 7793 just below the resistance of 7800 level and its expected trading range will be 7900 resistance and support of 7600 where either side move will further confirm the trend in market. If sustain trading is seen below 7650 on closing basis will open the door for 7500 and 7300 level soon. Today we look side way to negative trend to continue where will test 7300 level soon and only if the resistance of 8000 break will continue the uptrend where it will test 8200 – 8550 level immediately. Today expected to give opening near to 7600 and expected trading range will be 7700 to 7300 where selling is advise on every rise till the time resistance is holding at 8000. Stochastic has turned negative and is just drifted below overbought zone where it is just below 70% zone where further price action will bring it towards oversold zone.

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xDirect India

Nifty & USD/INR Report 2nd December, 2011

VIEW ON NIFTY 

Nifty:
Nifty yesterday after sharp gap up opening at 5002 just above the resistance level failed to sustain above and after consolidation at 4980 to 4995 range tested the lower level of 4934 and closing was seen at 4954 level. Today as the Asian market is trading flat and its expected that Nifty will open side way and will be trading in the range of 4970 and support of 4940 and trading below 4940 will bring to 4880 – 4820 on lower side. Whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 5000 level and closing above the same will only bring further uptrend in market. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4800 will open the door for 4700 to 4600 in medium term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 5000. Stochastic which has popped up above 40% zone is expected to trade flat and if only above 5000 will move in overbought zone where buying may be seen and market will move up.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday gave a sharp gap down opening below 52per$ where facing resistance at 52.8 was tested the lower level of 51.63 and closing was seen at 51.71 near the lower level. Today opening is seen flat around 51.7per$ where it failed to cross the higher level of 52per$ and is trading at 51.55per$ nearing the support of 51.5per$. if sustain trading is seen below 51.5 will bring to lower support of 51per$ to 50.6per$ which will be just the retracement of the rise what we have been seen in past days. Where on lower side it’s not expected to trade below 50 per$ on closing basis and any dip will be buying opportunity where on higher side if sustain trading above 52 will spark the higher target of 52.8 per$ to 53 per$ in near term. Stochastic are trading just drifted below 20% zone with negative intersection where is trading flat where range bound to down side move is expected.

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xDirect India

View on Major Currencies & Commodities 30th Nov, 2011

VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY

EUR/USD: EURO yesterday was quite volatile where during US market opening it moved from 1.3280 and tested 1.3440 and again 1.3330 level and closing was seen at 1.3315. Today’s opening was seen at 1.3330 level and taking the higher resistance of 1.3360 is trading below 1.3300 and expect to trade negative in the range of 1.3340 and 1.3220 for the day. We are looking at some selling pressure in Euro from higher level where it’s not expected to trade above to cross 1.3350 and is expected to test 1.3260 – 1.3200 in medium terms. Stochastic which has given a down trend is nearing the lower zone below 30% moving to enter oversold zone indicating further selling to continue in near term.

 GBP/USD: British Pound yesterday after opening was seen at 1.5000 failed to trade below 1.5480 and traded to test the higher level of 1.5560 and closing was just seen at 1.5610 levels. Today the opening was seen flat around the level of 1.5610 and taking resistance of 1.5650 is trading at 1.5550 level and expected trading range will be 1.5580 – 1.5460. Further trading below 1.5460 will continue the down trend where 1.5440 to 1.5420 will be immediate target. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1.5600 and crossover above the same will move to test 1.56500 to 1.5700 again. Till the time 1.5650 is holding on closing basis short correction can be expected. Stochastic which were trading in oversold zone has turned negative and is trading below 20% zone where some fall in price may be expected soon

AUS/USD: Australian Dollar yesterday which opened at 0.9002 levels tested the lower level support at 0.9960 and closing was seen at 0.9998 after testing the higher resistance at 1.0080 levels. Today after flat opening around 0.9999 it fails to cross the higher resistance of 1.0100 and is trading at 0.9950 where immediate support is seen at 0.9920 and if trading is seen below 0.9920 will move to test 0.9840 and 0.9650 immediately. On higher side sustain trading above immediate resistance level of 1.0100 will bring to 1.0300 level. Stochastic has given negative intersection just in the mid zone where down side move can be expected.

NZD/USD: Newzeland Dollar yesterday which opens near the lower level of 0.7550 tested the support level of 0.7500 and closing was seen at 0.7610 levels just near the resistance level. Today the opening was seen flat at 0.7610 and is trading negative at 0.7585 level and trading in the range for the day where on higher side it’s not crossing 0.7650 and on lower side support is seen at days low of 0.7550 level, further trading below 0.7550 will open the door for 0.7460 to 0.7410 level in near term. We expected some range bound to down side move in market where 0.7550 is resistance and support is seen at 0.7350 and selling at rise is advice in near term. Stochastic has reentered in oversold zone and is just hovering below 20% area where negative intersection will bring further selling.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen yesterday closing was seen at 78.28 after testing lower level of 77.50 where it’s trading positive and in range bound move where 78.5 can be retested. Today opening was seen at 77.9 and is trading just above 77.65 near 77.95 levels where support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Trading range can be seen for the day where 78.3 will be higher side resistance and support is seen at 77.5 on lower side. Stochastic has given positive intersection where side way move in price can be expected.

Currency pair	Pivot	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3	Trend Index
EUR/USD	1.3335	1.3260	1.3285	1.3310	1.3360	1.3385	1.3415	Down
GBP/USD	1.5610	1.5540	1.5565	1.5585	1.5625	1.5650	1.5670	Down
AUD/USD	1.0044	0.9912	0.9955	1.0011	1.0090	1.0133	1.0180	Down
NZD/USD	0.7640	0.7555	0.7575	0.7610	0.7675	0.7700	0.7740	Down
USD/JPY	77.96	77.58	77.73	77.82	78.06	78.21	78.30	Sideway

VIEW ON MAJOR COMMODITIES

Gold: Gold yesterday’s opening was seen flat around 1711$ failed to trade above 1720$ and after testing the resistance level moved down and tested the days low of 1704$ where support was seen at 1700$, closing was seen near the level of 1715$. Today opening was seen positive around 1715$ and is trading at 1722$ where the resistance is seen at 1725$ and if it’s holding the resistance of 1725$ trading below 1720$ will bring to 1710 – 1700$ on lower side. On higher side immediate resistance is seen at 1725$ where if it holding the resistance level will bring the price to move test the lower support of 1665 and 1660$ on lower side and further trading below 1660 will confirm the down trend on market. On lower side it is expected to move further down if support of 1690 is broken and will test the lower support of 1640 to 1600$ support level in medium term. Stochastic has entered in oversold zone where further price movement will confirm the trend where sustain below 20% zone will bring to 10% where lower target can be tested.

Silver:  Silver yesterday after opening was seen at 32$ fails to trade above 32.2$ and tested the lower level of 31.4$ just near the 31$ support. Today after the flat opening at 31.92 $ it is trading at 31.8$ where on lower side support is taken at 31.5$ and next support is coming at 31$.  If sustain trading is seen below 31.5$ will test the lower level of 31$ to 30.5$ immediately, where as only crossover above 32$ will bring to 33$ next resistance level. On higher side only on closing basis above 35$ will hamper the bearish outlook in silver where it will test 39$ on higher side. On lower side immediate support is seen at 31$ where sustain trading below the same will bring to 30 to 28$ in near to medium term. Stochastic has just neared to the lower level below 30% nearing oversold zone where if price drift below 30$ will bring to lower level where further selling in price may be seen.

Brent Crude oil: Brent Crude yesterday after the gap down opening at 108.5$ fails to trade below 108 and tested the higher level of 111$ and closing was also seen at days high. Today after side way opening near 110.8 failed to cross 111 and is trading at 110.5$ where some more upside is expected and may test 112$ immediately. Crossover above 112$ is must for further uptrend to continue where we wait for closing basis breakout for higher level of 115$. If sustain trading below 110$ will open the door for 108.5 to 106$ on lower side till the time 112$ is holding for the day. Stochastic is trading in the mid zone is trading flat and is expected to move towards the lower zone below 10% where some more selling can be seen in the price in coming days.

Copper: Copper yesterday after flat opening at 7416 tested the lower support of 7350 and closing was also seen near 7445 level. If sustain trading is seen below 7350 will open the door for 7100 and 7000 level soon. Today we look side way to negative trend to continue where will test 7300 level soon and only if the resistance of 7500 break will continue the uptrend where it will test 7700 – 7750 level immediately. Today expected to give opening near to 7400 and expected trading range will be 7300 to 7100 where selling is advise on every rise till the time resistance is holding at 7600. Stochastic are trading near the oversold zone where some down side move can be expected in near term.

Commodity	Pivot	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3	Trend Index
Gold	1713	1679	1696	1705	1722	1730	1747	Down
Silver	31.84	30.40	31.13	31.5	32.22	32.55	33.26	Down
Crude	110.5	108.3	109.4	110.03	111.15	111.60	112.70	Down
Copper	7420	7145	7283	7360	7505	7560	7697	Down

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xDirect India