Nifty & USD/INR Report- 19th June. 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_19.06.2012_xDirect India

The ongoing worries of Spain that pushed its yield rates to over 7.25% yesterday is overshadowing the Greek elections that came out to attempt a positive vibe in the global market. However, it was soon faded as borrowings become more expensive in the Euro Zone debt ridden nations. The one domestic fundamental that could have provided the much needed support would have been the RBI monetary policy decision; nevertheless all its rates (including CRR) were kept unchanged as RBI still thinks that inflation would be the more sought out problem rather than growth for the economy. European markets too ended mixed as worries about Spain and Italy dominated investor sentiment. Italy and Spain markets closed with 3% losses, while Germany, France and UK markets ended mixed. With no major data reported yesterday, US markets closed in mixed with Dow Jones slipping 0.20% while S&P 500 and NASDAQ eking out gains of 0.14% and 0.78% respectively.

Nifty closed in the negative by 75 points at 5064 just below its support of 5065;; moreover those alone weren’t the only problems that were to be faced as FITCH lowered India’s sovereign debt rating to negative from stable.

 For today the markets could come under pressure; however it could turn out that trading would be mixed as we turn into FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and the possible reactions to it. Therefore the support levels for intraday lies in 5060 levels (Falling trend line) followed by 5012 levels (horizontal Line support). Only a breach of 5044 levels could trigger another bearish trend for the Nifty to test 4954 levels (61.80% retracement). Resistance at 5082-5090 levels (50% retracement) followed by 5120 levels.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_19.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian Rupee slipped to its lowest levels in almost a week on Monday after the domestic central bank kept the benchmark interest rates unchanged, while Fitch downgrade of country’s outlook and late session cues from the European markets also hurting sentiment. The partially convertible Rupee fell to as low as 56.04 to the USD in the latter half taking domestic and global cues while closed at 55.9050 against the US Dollar as compared to Friday’s finish at 55.39.

Weakness in the local shares to contributed to the weakness in the INR. Indian shares dropped more than 1.4% marking their biggest percentage fall since June 1, led by a sell-off in Banking and financial sector after the central bank unexpectedly kept interest rates on hold. The RBI in its monetary policy review cited its continued concerns about inflationary pressures and weakening domestic fundamentals for no change in rates.

The home currency is expected to open lower on Tuesday tracking weakness in the Asian markets and after the EURUSD fell sharply against the day’s high at 1.2750 levels yesterday. Today morning, the common currency is trading with marginal gains which might provide some support to the local unit, though overall trend seems to be weak.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report – 14th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_14.06.2012_xDirect India

Indian equity indices managed to pull back from session lows, they closed just marginally higher, as uncertainty over the RBI policy action on June 18th kept market players wondering on the result that would affect the outcome to Indian capital markets. The undercurrent was also cautious before the release of the latest WPI inflation report on Thursday. Major Asian markets posted decent gains while the European markets were trading nearly flat after a higher start. Worries over the euro zone credit crisis persisted ahead of Italian bond auction later this week and Greek Elections on June 17.
There was a volatile trading session witnessed in Nifty yesterday, where it ended the session with a mere 18 points gain; however did scale up over the resistance line of 5100 levels, poising to touch 5150 levels for the day; however we do have the WPI data that is to bee reported which may cause some amount of rift as traders gear up for the RBI rate policy decision next week.
Support lies in at interim levels of around 5100, followed by 5080-5075 levels and then 5025levels. If there are dips in the market then it should be as an opportunity to buy in the market; however on the global front we do have Greece elections to come up this Sunday. Resistance at 5150 followed by 5210 (38.20% retracement is witnessed)

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_14.06.2012_xDirect India

The currency market remains indecisive yesterday  before  the  crucial  Greece election on 17th June and Italian bond sale which is due today. In the global market, the EURUSD remained higher despite Moody’s cuts Spain rating to Baa3 from A3. Further cuts may come, according to Moody’s, warning that the country may eventually be cut to junk. Spain’s is not in a position for A or BAA ratings, the agency said. We presume due to dismal data on the retail growth in US that reported an unchanged improvement from its previous levels of -0.20% states that US consumers hasn’t revived their consumption habits, in which the nation thrives on.

Indian Rupee Intraday Outlook:
However after the initial rally till 1.26 on EUR/USD there was a slight pullback however we presume that some sort of risk-off  trigger  if  provided  then  a downside on EUR/USD could result in US Dollar buying eventually pushing USD/INR once again to over 56.00 levels.
We expect USDINR to trade sideways with Italian bonds which would be in focus for today. A good bid on the auctions would definitely play a good role in risk –on environment   giving   boost   to   INR appreciation.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report, 11th June, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

Nifty Analysis_11.06.2012_xDirect India

The downside on the Indian equity markets was capped and moreover also sentiments in the global markets aided the Nifty to end the week on a higher note, wherever an upside was witnessed to its biggest levels since March end-April beginning week.  Investors in the equity market seem to discount the factors of a rate cut by the RBI, which was also coupled with solid gains on the infrastructure sectors as PM meets other cabinet ministers to plan out an action initiating developments in infra region.
The 30-share index, Sensex surged 753.71 points, or 4.72% to 16,718.87 for the week ended June 8, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty added 226.75 points, or 4.68%, to 5,068.35 during the week.
The Friday’s close ended the price action over and above the 5070 mark, which has now aided the price to open gap-up on the back of strong export figures and revived improved levels in imports, which has lifted market sentiments that world’s largest consumer has regained composure. Moreover the conference call among Euro Zone Finance Ministers also decided to provide bailout package to Spanish Banks.

Today we expect the positive note continue furthermore on the back of a follow through on the positive news from China and Euro Zone. Opening above 5084 mark (50% retracement) would now turn out as its support levels followed by 5060- 5070. The price action is poised to touch 5150 levels in today’s session followed by 5178 (Horizontal line resistance)

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR Analysis_11.06.2012_xDirect India

The Indian rupee lost v/s the US dollar on Friday despite firm move in the domestic share market. On Friday, the rupee suffered from falls in global risk assets on the back of the lackk of clarity on potential U.S. monetary stimulus, worries China will post weak data on Saturday, and concerns about Spanish banking woes.
Today, the sentiment is positive in the global market with stock markets, the euro and oil rallied after less bad Chinese data then expected along with a Spain’s bank bailout. The market welcomed the weekend news that Spain secured a EUR100 billion ($125 billion) loan to bolster its banking system, which makes the country the fourth and largest Euro Zone economy to be rescued by its euro-zone partners.
On Saturday, China released economic data which showed a weakening economy, but was not as bad as some expected. The PBoC made a surprise cut to interest rates ahead of the data, which was taken as a signal by the market that May’s figures were going to be very bad. As per data, China’s trade surplus was $18.7bn in May, a touch bigger than its $18.4bn surplus in April. Industrial production nudged up to a 9.6 per cent rise from 9.3 per cent in April. Inflation receded to 3.0 per cent year-on on-year in May, the lowest in two years and down from 3.4 per cent in April. Today, the Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.1% and Korea’s Kospi was 1.7% higher. Singapore’s Strait Times Index rose 1.5% and the China Shanghai Composite was up 0.3%.

Immediate support is at 55.30 and 55.10 levels. Intraday resistance is at 55.43 and then at 55.55 levels. Any pullback towards the resistance is ideal for selling.

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Nifty & USD/INR Report 24th May, 2012

Daily Nifty Analysis

nifty_24.5.2012_xDirect India

A yet another day of liquidation in equity markets, on basis of risk aversion has taken its toll in the SENSEX that ended below 16,000 marking its lowest level since January 7th, 2012. The uncertainty on the economy has indeed choked investors, which was backed by
the Rupee depreciation. USD/INR in spot has marked its highest level ever at 56.30 amid weak global trends, where SENSEX after marking a 157 drop further added about 80 points fall in the same session, as weakness in thee net importing economy would indeed makes consumption  more expensive.
For today, perhaps some sort of respite could be provided; however we should be watchful during the European session, wherein after a freefall in these markets that recorded a 2% fall, was witnessed, due to Greek issue and failure on providing any sort decision on Summit that was held yesterday.
Today, markets could witness some buying however; if risk aversion intensifies the buying on the counter could turn out to be a huge bout of selling.
Nifty finds its immediate support at 4804, where a breach could push it lower towards 4765 (Low of May 18th). Resistance at 4850 would be well kept for today wherein only a daily close above 4940 would be considered as a meaningful correction.

View on Indian Rupee

USD/INR_24.5.2012_xDirectIndia

The Indian Rupee continued its losing streak against the US Dollar and slipped below the psychological 56 mark on Wednesday. It plunged to an Intra-day low of 56.30, hitting a record low for the sixth straight session before finally closing at 56 levels against the USD. The fall in the Rupee persisted despite uninterrupted assurances and interventions in the currency markets by the Reserve Bank of India. Yesterday’s fall was led by demand for the Greenback from importers and banks amid rising risk aversion in the global markets. The has weakened more than 3% in the last three trading session while from its recent highs in Feb this year, the INR is down by over 23%, making its one of the most under-performing currencies amongst the globe.

Intra-day Outlook
Spot USDINR:
The RSI is its highest level since November 22, 2011 where constant upside has kept market to go short; however if European situation deteriorates then this would be followed by heavy selling in Euro and high yielding assets, causing US Dollar to strengthen.
For the trend we still keep our bias towards upside wherein after achieving our 1st target off 56.25. The objective remains to 56.68 for now (Both Fibonacci extensions). Supports are seen towards 55.95 and then 55.82 for today and only a daily close below 55.45 should be considered as a correction from its consistent upside.

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NIFTY & USD/INR Report 4th January, 2012

VIEW ON NIFTY

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the positive opening at the level of 4703 failed to trade below 4700 and reversal in price was seen and after some short covering closing was seen positive at 4773 after testing the higher level of 4791. Today as the Asian market trading positive we expect positive opening in Nifty too, where on higher side 4850 is the immediate resistance level which is 40 DMA and if fails to trade above the same selling may continue from the higher level where as on lower side 4700 is the support and today’s trading range will be 4820 to 4720 level and selling is advise at higher level. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4750 will open the door for 4680 to 4620 immediately, where as further 4200 can be expected in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4850 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4850 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a - b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic are trading in the mid zone and is side way to positive and some bounce is still left where if the resistance is holding selling may be seen at higher level.

VIEW ON RUPEE

USD/INR: Rupee last trading session closing was seen at 53.52 and on higher side 53.65 was the resistance taken and was trading downward as some selling pressure is seen at the level of 53.8 around. Today opening was seen around 53.45 per$ where some -ve move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 53.35 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 53.55 per$ where till the time support of 53.35 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.4 per$ and will test 53.84 and above 54 per$ will further move to 54.4 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will move side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.

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10 Tips on Choosing the Right Broker

If by now, you are all geared up with the necessary knowledge required for the forex trading, its time you rev up your engines for an exciting ride by opening an online account with a Forex Broker.

Irony: Brokers Help You Make Money

Am sure, you must have been already flooded with emails & phone calls by the financial brokers telling you to open accounts with huge offers or at least try out their free demo accounts.

But at most times, many traders are still confused while choosing the right kind of broker who would be dealing with their MONEY!

At all times, remember Choosing the right broker is the foremost step for successful trading. For it’s the broker who will be responsible for money and at all time should be up to your satisfaction levels & definitely not vice-versa.

The basic 10 pointers that you should keep in mind while selecting a Trading Broker
 

1. Is My Money SAFE? Utmost Important.After all you’ve to be assured to whom you are handing over your hard-earned money! Is it going to be safe with them? Which all regulatory bodies is your broker registered with who certifies their genuinity in terms of finance? Make sure you do a thorough check & even visit the websites of regulation bodies & cross-check the registration.

2. How will I Do My Trading? Make sure before choosing a Broker you go & DO check out their FREE Trading Platforms! After all, that is going to be your window to the global markets & should be easy to use & comprehensive in terms of the tools & navigation. Find out which software /platform works best with you. Are you a MT5 person or the MT4 satisfies it all? What all EA programs are they offering? During market volatility, how well does the platform work? How soon can you close your order in this time?
   Get well acquainted with the platform you’ll be dealing with everyday.

3. Happy To Help: Stuck up? Software Error? Money withdrawal delay? You are prone to such errors & the Broker’s Customer Service should be good enough to provide immediate solutions. You definitely wouldn’t want to hold on for 30 long minutes before you get back your access; in the meantime losing many profitable positions. Make sure to test the availability & the guidance provided by customer support prior to opening the account by making calls or checking their Live Chat options on website.

4. What are my Choices? It is true FOREX is highly a liquid market, but there are other lucrative instruments too like Equities, Futures, and Options which can be made use of. Remember more the no. of financial instruments offered along with the most traded ones means you have more instruments to trade on and is an equal measure for hedging, thus giving the broker an important point.

5. Spreads: This is relatively important in case the broker is offering very low or no commission charges. In short, spreads are basically the compensation the broker receives for being the market-maker & providing the regular 2way market. Make sure, to check out spreads in terms of FIXED or FLOATING for forex & the other offered instruments.

6. Margins & Leverage: Make sure you check out what are margin requirements & the leverage levels. Leverage ratios of 200:1 are for expert traders, whereas 1:10 for beginner traders maybe fine. Also, margin requirements are important to check which facilitate your trading. Usually these are anything between 1-5%. Lesser the margin, the better.

7. How Much Should I start trading with?  Here is the main catch & you need to be extra careful when deciding on this section. Usually a Broker gives many Attractive Offers undermined by the actual terms which may not be that suitable for you. Example: A broker offering an initial deposit of $100 with high levels of spreads, huge joining bonuses & leverage would definitely pinch your pocket more often than necessary. Its better to start your trading with a deposit of minimum $1000 with minimal spreads that will give you proper insights & emotional balance when dealing higher amounts.

8. Want to be a VIP? Sadly, this is proportional to the money you pay. Always put in the money as much as you are prepared to lose. That’s the Golden Rule of trading. Thus, choose an account wisely. For most, Standard accounts with standard spreads & margins are best (Better check various brokers’ account offers before selecting one). The broker often aiming for high clients profile would try to lure you into VIP/GOLD/PLATINIUM accounts which might not suit your financial budget. Also, the leverage available for VIP accounts are generally less than that offered for standard accounts. Be firm with your decision, & go with the Account which suits you & not with the one your broker sells. Usually reputable brokers offer good offers on standard accounts as well.
   
   
   
9. How Soon Can I get my Money Back? Deposit & Withdrawals- these facilities should be hassle-free & smooth flowing. Who would want their own money to be delayed because the broker doesn’t have structured facilities for withdrawals? If the deposits are relatively easier & faster than the withdrawals you can gauge the reputation of the broker.

10. What Else? While above point s are very necessary, additional services like analysis reports, market news, webinars / seminars, educational packages or e-books to increase you trading knowledge are provided by most reputed brokers.

Finally, after choosing the best broker based on these basic pointers, your technical knowledge & skills put together, will sail you through a lot of ups & downs, yielding into a many profitable pips.
Remember, forex is YOUR Venture & only the best associates will work!